Texas Fall-2015

[Brent]

Happy Birthday Texas Snowman! One day it will snow on your birthday, it can be done!

Thanks Ntxw, TeamPlayersBlue and Brent for the birthday wishes.

Maybe one day I'll see some snow on Nov. 4th. I've seen it falling in late October (falling, not sticking at a local high school football game, back in 1993 if I remember correctly). And I've seen a light dusting on Nov. 8th if I remember correctly. But never on my birthday, it's kind of like the ultimate White Christmas kind of snow I guess.

Back to the current situation, bring on the rain as long as there is no flooding or severe weather.

And let the snow and cold come soon with a winter to remember!

At least it's not hot for your birthday.. mine is in late July *sighs*

[TheProfessor]

So I just learned something new, it's called the QBO (Quasi-biennial oscillation) They've been talking about it in the forum I go to for the Midwest and Great Lakes Area. It has to do with the upper atmosphere with the solar intensity and the winds. It doesn't seem like it's a clear cut, end all be all signature, but mixed with other Ocean signatures they think it could cancel out some of the affects of the El Nino, one guy thinks the QBO + the still fairly warm North Pacific could cancel out some of the torchiness from the El Nino later in winter and with extra moisture could make the Winter more exciting.

I've never heard of this until a met brought it up, is it something the mets only really use up north? I'm going to have to do more research about it when I have time.

[Ntxw]

Portastorm and I have mentioned the QBO before but rarely. It's very high up and something that doesn't always work to fit. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. Sample size is very small. Also it needs to couple with solar. I haven't seen evidence of qbo silencing a Nino, do they have an example year? I only know 30/50 mb winds says we are strong westerly QBO which isnt great for blocking. Typically a big signal in the troposphere can mute stuff in the stratosphere since it is much closer to us from my understanding

[Ntxw]

6z GFS la la land says hard freeze for first freeze climo, how's that for fun?

[gboudx]

Timeframe?

Edit: nevermind. Didn't see you said climo. Around 11/22 then.

[Ntxw]

Timeframe?

Edit: nevermind. Didn't see you said climo. Around 11/22 then.

Yeah 18-20 it has then run ends. I wouldn't believe it just yet but the other guidance do hint at some deep western trof coming out so could bring polar air mass out of Alaska. It is near climo for it

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS now showing upper 30s for Monday morning in NE Texas. Overall looks like most mornings are going to be cool besides maybe Wednesday.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

As far as analogs, their was a daily archive site i used to look at old snow events at. Only works on firefox, not chrome. I used those maps to further my knowledge of 500MB charts about 8 years ago. Entertaining, let me see if i can look at some pre-'79 analogs from it later.

After i get some work done though lol.

[TheProfessor]

Portastorm and I have mentioned the QBO before but rarely. It's very high up and something that doesn't always work to fit. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. Sample size is very small. Also it needs to couple with solar. I haven't seen evidence of qbo silencing a Nino, do they have an example year? I only know 30/50 mb winds says we are strong westerly QBO which isnt great for blocking. Typically a big signal in the troposphere can mute stuff in the stratosphere since it is much closer to us from my understanding

No, he just mentioned that When the QBO goes from Sharply negative to Sharply positive, like this year it usually means a snowy winter for the North I'm guessing, the same happened in 2013 where some people in the forum who usually only see 50 inches of snow saw close to 100 inches. He then showed how even though when the QBO goes from sharply positive to sharply negative it usually means a calmer winter because the North Pacific was warm the Winter and caused snowfall to be slightly above normal. He said that there's never really been an El Nino so strong with the North Pacific still warm and the QBO going from Negative to Positive. I haven't done my own research of the QBO though.

[Ralph's Weather]

With no good analogs for the winter I have to go with the standard warm ocean/cold continent. The tropical and sub-tropical warm anomalies in the Pacific should continue to provide copious amounts of moisture and the warm N Pacific and should provide some Arctic outbreaks and increase snow cover down the Plains.
The GFS shows good growth of the snow cover over the West and Southern Canada over the next 10 days which should allow us to start flirting with a freeze by late month.

[Ntxw]

2015's flash drought was eliminated in 2 weeks. Only area of drought left today is a small region in east Texas. Wild year.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like folks in the Dallas area need to be on the lookout for severe pops this afternoon.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CST THU NOV 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL/ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051648Z - 051815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL INCLUDE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND EVENTUALLY AN
INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...AN INCREASINGLY DEFORMED BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING NORTH NORTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 90 KTS WITHIN A NARROW CYCLONIC
BELT ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO EASTERN KANSAS.
WHILE ASSOCIATED STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN LARGELY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION...HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
AND DIVERGENT ABOVE A MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY REGION.

MOISTENING...CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING THROUGH
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...IS ONGOING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. COUPLED WITH INCREASING BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
18-21Z TIME FRAME.

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION...FOCUSED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
ZONE...BUT CURRENTLY LIKELY STILL ELEVATED. AS THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADS EASTWARD IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
HIGH-LEVEL SUPPORT...SUBSTANTIVE INTENSIFICATION APPEARS PROBABLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INCLUDE CONTINUING DISCRETE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/SUPERCELLS...AND A GRADUALLY EVOLVING
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 11/05/2015


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33269890 35079758 35719624 35229515 33649582 32509745
32359897 33269890

[Ralph's Weather]

End of 12Z GFS shows a similar situation to Patricia with a E Pac hurricane merging with a Gulf low to produce heavy rain with a robust Arctic front coming down the Rockies. Some recent runs have shown some kind of E Pac low hitting Mexico around the 20th and some runs have had some cold air, but this run is most intense on both. Very much la la land, but that would be a fun start to more winter like weather.

[weatherdude1108]

End of 12Z GFS shows a similar situation to Patricia with a E Pac hurricane merging with a Gulf low to produce heavy rain with a robust Arctic front coming down the Rockies. Some recent runs have shown some kind of E Pac low hitting Mexico around the 20th and some runs have had some cold air, but this run is most intense on both. Very much la la land, but that would be a fun start to more winter like weather.

I saw that E Pac low on one of the models, I think yesterday(?). Caught my attention!

[Ralph's Weather]

End of 12Z GFS shows a similar situation to Patricia with a E Pac hurricane merging with a Gulf low to produce heavy rain with a robust Arctic front coming down the Rockies. Some recent runs have shown some kind of E Pac low hitting Mexico around the 20th and some runs have had some cold air, but this run is most intense on both. Very much la la land, but that would be a fun start to more winter like weather.

I saw that E Pac low on one of the models, I think yesterday(?). Caught my attention!

What fun it would be to get Arctic air into the backside of a ex-Patricia like system.
Extrapolate the 12Z GFS further out and you have a blizzard for the Midwest to start off T-Day week that would make travel a nightmare, but it would sure set us up for a cold end to fall with snow cover down the Central Plains.

[weatherdude1108]

End of 12Z GFS shows a similar situation to Patricia with a E Pac hurricane merging with a Gulf low to produce heavy rain with a robust Arctic front coming down the Rockies. Some recent runs have shown some kind of E Pac low hitting Mexico around the 20th and some runs have had some cold air, but this run is most intense on both. Very much la la land, but that would be a fun start to more winter like weather.

I saw that E Pac low on one of the models, I think yesterday(?). Caught my attention!

What fun it would be to get Arctic air into the backside of a ex-Patricia like system.

Oh man! That could be a 14-incher, like San Antonio had back in 1985!

[Ralph's Weather]

Oh man! That could be a 14-incher, like San Antonio had back in 1985!

Training storms and 35 degrees could pile up quick. Fun to dream.

[weatherdude1108]

Oh man! That could be a 14-incher, like San Antonio had back in 1985!

Training storms and 35 degrees could pile up quick. Fun to dream.

Oh yeah. I meant snow. They had a record snow back on January 11-13th, 1985. The temperatures were only like 27. I lived through it. That was amazing! I always dream of that day happening again.

But yeah, 35 and training storms could add up quickly.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This la la land from the GFS would put feet of snow in the plains states.

[gboudx]

Tornado Watch just issued for most of the FWD CWA.