Disturbance in Western Caribbean - is Invest 93L

[Sanibel]

Too spotty and pocketed with dry spots in my opinion.

[gatorcane]

Shear actually doesn't look that bad out ahead of it due to the proximity of an upper-level low, latest EC develops a low in the BOC out of this.

Not looking like November at all right now.

[tailgater]

hmmmm

[northjaxpro]

NHC now beginning to take note of the surface 1010 mb Low attached to a trough axis in the NW Caribbean east of Belize. 10% for what it is worth on this morning's TWO. Whatever tries to develop here will only have a very brief window of opportunity. This entity will likely merge with a cold front later in the forecast period.

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 4m4 minutes ago
It is still #hurricane season! NW Caribbean low has some chance in the SW GMex in a couple of days- recon possible.

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
       NEAR 22.0N 95.0W AT 7/1800Z.

[Steve]

I didn't think the season was over after Patricia came up (still think it was classifiable on Sunday), and that there would be one more shot at something in late October/early November (and yeah, I'm on record from then saying I didn't think it was over). Not sure we get anything out of this, but it's something to watch as the fall starts transitioning.

[northjaxpro]

The system will have about only a brief 36-48 hour window to potentially develop once it enters into the SW GOM on Saturday before it merges with the cold front early next week.

[ROCK]

The EURO ejects it with the front while the CMC squashes it down into the BOC and then into MX. Nice little eddy at the surface showing up.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[cycloneye]

1 PM EST:

A broad low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This system
is expected to move west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Some slow
development is possible during the couple of days. After that time,
the low is expected to encounter a cold front, which would make
additional development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[northjaxpro]

NHC 18Z TWO estimates the broad surface 1010 mb Low at 18 N 86.0 W or about 120 miles east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico on the Yucatan Peninsula, moving west-northwest at about 12 mph.

http://www.weatherstreet.com/satellite- ... ibbean.htm

[Sanibel]

Naked spin developing on visible just east of Belize.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Very elongated area

[gatorcane]

the low-level vorticity is actually quite symmetric.

[Weatherwatcher98]

the low-level vorticity is actually quite symmetric.

Was looking at satellite, my bad.

[Sanibel]

Too Weak, too dry.

[cycloneye]

7 PM EST:

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. This system is expected to move west-northwestward across
the Yucatan Peninsula into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the
weekend. Some slow development is possible during the couple of
days. After that time, the low is expected to encounter a cold
front, which would make additional development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

7 AM EST:


A broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula and the
adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized
shower activity. This system is expected to move west-northwestward
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday and some slow
development is possible during the next couple of days. After that
time, the low is expected to encounter a cold front, which would
make additional development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Steve]

Additional evidence on how crazy of a year this could have been. A WNW moving surface low in the SW Gulf in November? Sure, some of the energy will get picked up into the flow with the front, but outside of some of the systems that developed early in the MDR and fizzled later toward the Caribbean, this has been a western biased season for low pressures. Luckily for us in the US, we dodged a few close calls. So I'm going to get rain in the 2nd week of November (most likely on 11/08) from a tropical origin system. Yeah, you don't see that every year.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA -GULF OF MEXICO-
       FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-
       A. 07/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
       C. 07/1600Z
       D. 22.5N 94.5W
       E. 07/1745Z TO 07/2030Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT

   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX AT 08/1800Z
       NEAR 21.0N 94.0W

[Weatherwatcher98]

Additional evidence on how crazy of a year this could have been. A WNW moving surface low in the SW Gulf in November? Sure, some of the energy will get picked up into the flow with the front, but outside of some of the systems that developed early in the MDR and fizzled later toward the Caribbean, this has been a western biased season for low pressures. Luckily for us in the US, we dodged a few close calls. So I'm going to get rain in the 2nd week of November (most likely on 11/08) from a tropical origin system. Yeah, you don't see that every year.

Been a strange year to say the least. Climatology seems to be out the window.