Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Post-Tropical

#161 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:28 pm

almost certainly will have one or two more EWRCs before landfall

#162 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Oct 30, 2015 11:09 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

the eye is already contracting. This could undergo another round of rapid intensification soon

#163 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:04 am

Once convection can wrap around, re-intensification (I'd say this is around 90 knots now) is likely, and I'd say this has a decent chance at reaching 115 knots again. Hopefully this doesn't ERC prior to landfall, keeping the RMW small.

#164 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 3:33 am

probably back around 120-125 kts now

#165 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 5:23 am

Eye continues to contract.

Appears to have sucked in some dry air. Or is that an outter eyewall signaling the start of another ERC?

euro6208 · #166 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 5:40 am

Category 4...

WTIO31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 58.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 58.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.9N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.1N 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.4N 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.8N 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.5N 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.2N 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 58.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN 8-NM PINHOLE EYE EVEN AS
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND
REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
15-KNOT SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 04A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER EASTERN YEMEN AS IT TRACKS MORE NORTHWESTWARD. TC CHAPALA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS DRY AIR EMANATING FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA,
IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, ERODES THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 NEAR THE YEMENI-SAUDI ARABIAN BORDER MAINLY DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN

#167 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 7:03 am

looks to be intensifying quickly again

#168 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:44 am

15:00 UTC warning from JTWC at 115kts but will weaken at landfall to cat 1 or to TS.

WeatherGuesser · #169 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:52 am

Seems to me like a 2-3,000' coastline elevation would disrupt circulation well before the eye comes ashore.

#170 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:31 am

cycloneye wrote:15:00 UTC warning from JTWC at 115kts but will weaken at landfall to cat 1 or to TS.

And I would say that forecast is too aggressive with the weakening. The reason is they have this on a weakening trend now. However, the weakening was without a doubt due to eyewall replacement. This has intensified during the past 12 hours.

Now, it is showing signs of another eyewall replacement

Not sure why JT is not picking up on this. These are very easy to forecast in this case

#171 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 1:19 pm

TPIO11 PGTW 311755

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA)

B. 31/1730Z

C. 13.70N

D. 57.19E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T5.5/6.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

BERMEA

Looks embedded in B to me. Still, CDO is quite ragged, so I'd only estimate around 110 knots right now, maybe 115 given how good it looks on microwave.

#172 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 2:33 pm

may be turning to the WSW. Socotra in play big time. Unfortunately most of the population is on the northern coast, which will be closest to the eye

#173 Postby **terstorm1012** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 3:16 pm

al mukalla in play too it looks like. do you still think it'll be closer to there alyono?

#174 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 3:42 pm

terstorm1012 wrote:al mukalla in play too it looks like. do you still think it'll be closer to there alyono?

have always favored Al Mukalla as a very intense cyclone. Starting to wonder if it will go west of there to be honest

#175 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 4:14 pm

Eye appears to be warming.

#176 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 4:51 pm

Cloud tops around the eye have cooled and become more organized. To me, looks like DG eye is embedded in either W or B surrounded by CMG. That'd be either a T6.0 or T6.5.

TPIO11 PGTW 312107

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA)

B. 31/2030Z

C. 13.62N

D. 56.86E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T5.5/6.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 5.5. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
31/1707Z 13.68N 57.28E MMHS
31/1802Z 13.72N 57.28E MMHS

BERMEA

Why is the JTWC basing it off of MET?

mrbagyo · #177 Postby **mrbagyo** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:01 pm

Even its outflow have impoved drastically - almost radial now.

#178 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:15 pm

Appears to be 3/4th away from a WMG.

#179 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:23 pm

Impressive. Really looks like it's intensifying.

#180 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:40 pm

for some reason, NRL has stopped giving routine sat pics for this

On 30 min imagery I have access to, the eye looks like its expanding in size again. Probably eyewall replacement #2 ongoing

Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Post-Tropical

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