12N 33W

[blp]

I know it is late in the season but interesting area out in the MDR. Convection is displaced but nice low level structure.

[AJC3]

ABNT20 KNHC 291727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become highly unfavorable for
development while the system moves westward near 15 mph over the
next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Sanibel]

Unbelievable for this time of year but I think the westerlies will make short work of it.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

[wxman57]

Yeah, westerly wind shear is beginning to tear it apart.

[Weatherwatcher98]

GFS showed a Storm nearing Florida in the long term

[abajan]

FWIW, formation probabilities up to 10%:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with an
area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should limit the
development of this system while it moves westward near 15 mph over
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015


...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N36W TO 18N34W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT
WITH A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 32W-38W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 31W-38W.

[Sanibel]

A non-entity that was sheared apart.

[cycloneye]

No more mention by NHC.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 311055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015



...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 10N-16N MOVING W 5-10 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.