EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[tatertawt24]

Black is almost all the way around the eye again, but still looking ragged. Could it be finishing up an ERC this quick??

[Nate-Gillson]

Josh Morgerman ‏@iCyclone 9m9 minutes ago La Huerta, Jalisco
Crazy, conflicted emotions as I chase #Hurricane #PATRICIA. Scared of failure, more scared of success. Reward will be fearsome punishment.

No words on this.

[SouthDadeFish]

From what I'm seeing, on the inbound leg, the plane descended over 2,000 ft in only 30 seconds. The on the outbound leg, it ascended over 1,000 ft in 30 seconds, while measuring 191 kt horizontal winds. That simply is not safe. If anyone on that crew has any bodily fluids left inside of them I'll be shocked.

As I said earlier, this flight should have been cancelled on safety grounds

I certainly wouldn't want to fly it. But I guess if the crew was willing, it was their choice. At the very least, the data they collect will be incredibly valuable for studying the dynamics of top tier tropical cyclones. I will not blame them whatsoever for not flying back in for another fix, but if they didn't want to do another fix, why keep circling? Just fly around the storm back home.

[davidiowx]

Holy crap that is scary. Recon just needs to get out of there. I want the data as much as anyone else but they don't need to risk their life getting it.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I didn't notice that big drop in altitude before. Link to that HDOB:

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... .4-181-166

They were trying to follow the 700mb surface, but they got behind and looks like they descended really quickly to try to reach it again quickly.

[CrazyC83]

Sounds like they might have to abort the mission.

That would be the right thing to do. It seems also the NOAA P-3 (the older planes) don't handle extreme storms as well as the AF C-130. I wouldn't allow P-3's into storms stronger than Cat 3 from here on in.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Here is the last pass from the Air Force mission this morning:
http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... .2-173-106
See how they more gradually follow the 700mb surface.

[Kingarabian]

From what I'm seeing, on the inbound leg, the plane descended over 2,000 ft in only 30 seconds. The on the outbound leg, it ascended over 1,000 ft in 30 seconds, while measuring 191 kt horizontal winds. That simply is not safe. If anyone on that crew has any bodily fluids left inside of them I'll be shocked.

As I said earlier, this flight should have been cancelled on safety grounds

I certainly wouldn't want to fly it. But I guess if the crew was willing, it was their choice. At the very least, the data they collect will be incredibly valuable for studying the dynamics of top tier tropical cyclones. I will not blame them whatsoever for not flying back in for another fix, but if they didn't want to do another fix, why keep circling? Just fly around the storm back home.

I guess it could very well be instrument errors and they're doing their best to reboot to get another center pass.

[Aric Dunn]

Just a couple of hours till landfall and this looks likes it intensified again... the inner eye has contracted and convection deepened . . which is not typical during an ERC normally inner eye convection weakens as the outer deepens.. strange,.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon is running out of time before the eye makes landfall. The eye has continued to contract and cloud tops continue to cool. EWRC likely occurring as we speak.

[Nate-Gillson]

If Josh gets in the bulleye of Patricia, I really hope he makes it out alive. This thing has Fairdale/Rochelle (April 9, 2015 EF4) level winds.

[brunota2003]

Aric: Wilma did the same thing. Remember it took like 20 hours for the outer eyewall to kill off the inner one? And even then it kept flaring back up.

[Kingarabian]

Just a couple of hours till landfall and this looks likes it intensified again... the inner eye has contracted and convection deepened . . which is not typical during an ERC normally inner eye convection weakens as the outer deepens.. strange,.

I think super storms such as this, Wilma, and Haiyan don't ERC in the traditional way.

[Alyono]

If Josh gets in the bulleye of Patricia, I really hope he makes it out alive. This thing has Fairdale/Rochelle (April 9, 2015 EF4) level winds.

More like Joplin level EF5 winds in the gusts

[FrontRunner]

This is probably a topic for a separate thread, but does anyone know if there are plans to start supplementing manned recon with drones? I'm guessing drones might not be able to fully replace the value of manned missions, and there might be other drawbacks (e.g. max range), but in some cases it would be safer and may save money.

[CrazyC83]

The dark area is expanding on the east side as well. If it can completely wrap back around, it might have a shot at beating Tip.

[Nate-Gillson]

If Josh gets in the bulleye of Patricia, I really hope he makes it out alive. This thing has Fairdale/Rochelle (April 9, 2015 EF4) level winds.

More like Joplin level EF5 winds in the gusts

I know, I was referring to the sustained winds.

[stephen23]

Or Norman Ok winds

[galaxy401]

Just a couple of hours till landfall and this looks likes it intensified again... the inner eye has contracted and convection deepened . . which is not typical during an ERC normally inner eye convection weakens as the outer deepens.. strange,.

I think super storms such as this, Wilma, and Haiyan don't ERC in the traditional way.

Which makes it more intriguing on studying these super storms. These beasts seem to behave differently than most typical category 5 storms.

[SouthDadeFish]

A point to make about the comparison to tornado winds is that tropical cyclones do not have anything close to the same magnitude of vertical velocities. Thus the kind of damage from TCs are much different than tornadoes for a given magnitude of horizontal wind.