EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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#1021 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:Chris,why is the plane doing circles in an area?


Aric Dun/Tolakram posted on the recon thread saying that they maybe waiting out the burst of convection in the CDO or there maybe excessive hail and they're waiting for the hail to subside.
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Re: Re:

#1022 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:30 pm

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Chris,why is the plane doing circles in an area?
I don't know. If it was a serious problem, they would head home. Someone suggested hail on the recon thread, although usually you hear about that in the vortex message.

I keep checking:
https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter
To see if they post anything.


They could have detected it after the vortex was sent but after they passed out beyond where hail could have been. hard to say. I've never seen them do this for such a long time.
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#1023 Postby hurricanekid416 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:32 pm

Did this ever get to 205 mph?
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Re: Re:

#1024 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:32 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Chris,why is the plane doing circles in an area?
I don't know. If it was a serious problem, they would head home. Someone suggested hail on the recon thread, although usually you hear about that in the vortex message.

I keep checking:
https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter
To see if they post anything.


They could have detected it after the vortex was sent but after they passed out beyond where hail could have been. hard to say. I've never seen them do this for such a long time.


At this rate, the storm will pass them if they keep staying idle in the SE quad. Maybe that's what they're waiting for?
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1025 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:32 pm

What if hail doesn't subside until landfall, are we losing another pass?
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#1026 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:33 pm

What about landfall? Still around dusk or just after?
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1027 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:35 pm

supercane4867 wrote:What if hail doesn't subside until landfall, are we losing another pass?


we dont know if its hail or not.. or why at all they are doing that.
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#1028 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:36 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:What about landfall? Still around dusk or just after?


pretty close to dusk
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1029 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:36 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:What if hail doesn't subside until landfall, are we losing another pass?


we dont know if its hail or not.. or why at all they are doing that.


They might just be assessing the plane. Although normally if it is too bad they would withdraw sooner.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1030 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:37 pm

Josh keeps moving as the wobbles continue.

Josh Morgerman ‏@iCyclone · 6m6 minutes ago  La Huerta, Jalisco
We're back in Emiliano Zapata. Chasing #Hurricane #PATRICIA is like swinging at a knuckleball: the eye wobbles are out of control.

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#1031 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:38 pm

seeing on twitter that the plane fell 2,000 feet in 30 seconds
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1032 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:Josh keeps moving as the wobbles continue.

Josh Morgerman ‏@iCyclone · 6m6 minutes ago  La Huerta, Jalisco
We're back in Emiliano Zapata. Chasing #Hurricane #PATRICIA is like swinging at a knuckleball: the eye wobbles are out of control.



not surprised. its going to be a tough chase for them
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Re:

#1033 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:39 pm

Alyono wrote:seeing on twitter that the plane fell 2,000 feet in 30 seconds


Wow.
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#1034 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:39 pm

From what I'm seeing, on the inbound leg, the plane descended over 2,000 ft in only 30 seconds. The on the outbound leg, it ascended over 1,000 ft in 30 seconds, while measuring 191 kt horizontal winds. That simply is not safe. If anyone on that crew has any bodily fluids left inside of them I'll be shocked.
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#1035 Postby tatertawt24 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:40 pm

Sounds like they might have to abort the mission. :eek:
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Re:

#1036 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:40 pm

Alyono wrote:seeing on twitter that the plane fell 2,000 feet in 30 seconds

If that's the case, they're probably cleaning up objects that broke loose and went all over the cabin, a la the Hugo flight Dr. Masters was on.
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Re:

#1037 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:41 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:From what I'm seeing, on the inbound leg, the plane descended over 2,000 ft in only 30 seconds. The on the outbound leg, it ascended over 1,000 ft in 30 seconds, while measuring 191 kt horizontal winds. That simply is not safe. If anyone on that crew has any bodily fluids left inside of them I'll be shocked.


So they are cleaning up the mess :P yikes lol
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#1038 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:41 pm

If the next HDOB shows another loop then I'm pretty confident in my saying that they're waiting for the storm to pass and they've ran into some kind of trouble that is keeping them from simply flying back.
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Re:

#1039 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:43 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:From what I'm seeing, on the inbound leg, the plane descended over 2,000 ft in only 30 seconds. The on the outbound leg, it ascended over 1,000 ft in 30 seconds, while measuring 191 kt horizontal winds. That simply is not safe. If anyone on that crew has any bodily fluids left inside of them I'll be shocked.


As I said earlier, this flight should have been cancelled on safety grounds
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Re: Re:

#1040 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:43 pm

Alyono wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:From what I'm seeing, on the inbound leg, the plane descended over 2,000 ft in only 30 seconds. The on the outbound leg, it ascended over 1,000 ft in 30 seconds, while measuring 191 kt horizontal winds. That simply is not safe. If anyone on that crew has any bodily fluids left inside of them I'll be shocked.


As I said earlier, this flight should have been cancelled on safety grounds


This mission does not really compare to the previous one in terms of strength.
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