EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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psyclone
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1001 Postby psyclone » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:51 pm

Sanibel wrote:The Villages of Costa Careyes and Emiliano Zapata should be close to the center at landfall if it stays on NHC track.



Pretty good for a Nino year that some people were writing off.



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? everyone expected amped up activity in the east and central pacific due to el nino which is exactly what happened.
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Nate-Gillson
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#1002 Postby Nate-Gillson » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:51 pm

Why is Patricia arcing to the NNW? Just a wobble?
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Re:

#1003 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:DO we have coastal radar in that area of mexico ?


Nope no radar there. Only radar on the west coast north of Acapulco is in Guasave, not far from Mazatlan.
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Re:

#1004 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:54 pm

Nate-Gillson wrote:Why is Patricia arcing to the NNW? Just a wobble?


The inner eye is beginning to get choked off by the new outer eye. Its a Eyewall replacement cycle ( ERC) unluckily for the mexican coast it wont have enough time weaken before landfall.
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Re: Re:

#1005 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:54 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:DO we have coastal radar in that area of mexico ?


Nope no radar there. Only radar on the west coast north of Acapulco is in Guasave, not far from Mazatlan.


Well thats just dumb :P
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Re: Re:

#1006 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:57 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Well thats just dumb :P




Probably based on budget more than anything.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1007 Postby ozonepete » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:00 pm

Wow the convective inner core is makng an incredibly fast and strong comeback. Really awful for the coast there. Horrendous.
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#1008 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:04 pm

Video from hurricane hunter:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRArAZfWGp8
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#1009 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:05 pm

Wish recon can start the second pass now. They might be encountering some problems
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#1010 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:06 pm

Need the pressure record officially to make this complete.
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#1011 Postby Zanthe » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:08 pm

Just a thought...it doesn't much matter about the fluctuations in strength at this point (other than for the record books,) the difference between 155 and 200 MPH isn't that great for most buildings. They'll be leveled regardless.
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#1012 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:09 pm

"fly back in to the 240 mph nightmarecane"
"no"
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Re:

#1013 Postby DukeDevil91 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:11 pm

Zanthe wrote:Just a thought...it doesn't much matter about the fluctuations in strength at this point (other than for the record books,) the difference between 155 and 200 MPH isn't that great for most buildings. They'll be leveled regardless.



Obviously this. Speaking purely about the risk to human life and property, the differences in damage within the Cat 5 parameters are of minimal distinction. However, maybe it's my shameless love for witnessing weather events like this, every little detail is important and fascinating. We're in the territory of <5 mb difference of central pressure spelling out once in a lifetime opportunities. To have the technology we do inside that storm right now measuring every little statistics and measurement is an absolute awesome thing to witness.
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#1014 Postby tatertawt24 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:14 pm

Looks a little more ragged now.
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Re:

#1015 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:15 pm

tatertawt24 wrote:Looks a little more ragged now.


YEah the ERC is well underway but not enough time to weaken before landfall from it.
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#1016 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:17 pm

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeswestpacus.html


running this loop. you can clearly see the how rapidly the inner eye has contracted and begun wobbling around..
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Re:

#1017 Postby Raebie » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:18 pm

windnrain wrote:"fly back in to the 240 mph nightmarecane"
"no"


LMAO!
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#1018 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:22 pm

Radar loop through 3:01pm EDT:
http://imgur.com/UBoy4is
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#1019 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:23 pm

Chris,why is the plane doing circles in an area?
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Re:

#1020 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:28 pm

cycloneye wrote:Chris,why is the plane doing circles in an area?
I don't know. If it was a serious problem, they would head home. Someone suggested hail on the recon thread, although usually you hear about that in the vortex message.

I keep checking:
https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter
To see if they post anything.
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