EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[Stormhunter27]

I actually spent time in Chamela doing field research years ago. It's all tropical dry forest, wide river runs, and can handle some flash flooding.

The infrastructure in the area is bad. Very bad. Unless it's improved in a huge way since I was there, the towns in the area are mostly cinderblock walls with corrugated metal roofs. Some fairly well built structures, but not that many.

The only saving grace with this storm is that it's a relatively sparsely populated area.

[LarryWx]

Hopefully it won't be nearly as bad as the only cat 5 on record to hit in the EPAC. That one caught people by surprise:

The only cat 5 on record to make landfall from the EPAC, which was on 10/27/1959, hit Manzanillo. It had 160 mph winds measured. This was also the deadliest EPAC H on record with it having killed 1,800.

"Thousands of people were unprepared for the storm. Thus, the system was dubbed "a sneak hurricane". After passing well offshore from Acapulco, it was forecast to head out to sea. Instead, it recurved east and made landfall."

"Impact from the hurricane was severe and widespread. Initially forecast to remain offshore, the system curved northeast and moved ashore, becoming one of Mexico's worst natural disasters at the time. Up to 150 boats were submerged. Countless homes in Colima and Jalisco were damaged or destroyed, large portions of the states were inaccessible by flash flooding, and hundreds of residents were stranded. All coconut plantations were blown down during the storm, leaving thousands without work and instating fear that it would take the economy years to recover. Torrential rainfall across mountain terrain contributed to numerous mudslides that caused hundreds of fatalities. In the aftermath of the cyclone, convoys delivering aid were hindered by the destruction. Residents were vaccinated to prevent the spread of disease."

"In the aftermath, air rescue operations were conducted, but the destruction of roads in the area hindered convoys carrying aid.[22] Planes also made supply drops, but rescue operations were hindered by broken roads and rails.[17] Survivors were vaccinated against typhoid and tetanus.[21] Part of Manzanillo was placed under quarantine.[14]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1959_Mexico_hurricane

[mrbagyo]

no EWRC, just a very tight core with strong northern spiral band.

[ozonepete]

Also, could you guys please put the disclaimer on your post if you are saying it will or won't start weakening? There may be people who get misled by your speculation.

Hope it is weakening. My daughter is right now in the path, just a bit south of Guadalajara on Lake Chapala. She was out early this a.m. for ER supplies. Somewhat protected by mountains, but will be on the right side of Patricia.

Well you know the drill: tell her to stay indoors and away from windows once the wind starts rising. Even tho she's inland this storm is so strong that they will get quite a blow there. Good luck to you both. Keep us posted if u can.

[supercane4867]

ISS will fly over Patricia soon in perfect position. Something you don't want to miss.

Live camera:
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/iss-hdev-payload/pop-out

[Kingarabian]

I wonder what recon will find...

Looks to me as if it has tapered off and maybe inner dynamics are keeping the intensity stable.

I think recon had it when it was explosively deepening. They simply arrived an hour too early.

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[EquusStorm]

Is it just me or has there been a much sharper NE jog in the last few frames? Manzanillo should be on high alert.

[supercane4867]

ISS live
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/iss-hdev-payload/pop-out

[hurricaneCW]

She likely peaked an hour or two ago and should be steadily weakening until landfall, which is very close now with these NE jogs.

[cycloneye]

He is moving.

Josh Morgerman ‏@iCyclone · 4m4 minutes ago  La Huerta, Jalisco
Racing S on Hwy 200. Will stop in La Manzanilla to reassess. Chasing a nuke. #Hurricane #PATRICIA

[supercane4867]

Still sliding eastward from the forecast track, Manzanillo seems to be in deep trouble.

[supercane4867]

From ISS



Hopefully they can release hi-res version shots today

[CrazyC83]

Every little wobble is huge at this point. One poorly-timed wobble and Manzanillo gets the worst of it. This is shades of Haiyan when one bad wobble late flattened Tacloban.

[1900hurricane]

Big development, GPM pass is showing major signs of an outer eyewall.

[supercane4867]

Wow that outer eyewall just suddenly developed out of nowhere

[CrazyC83]

If this makes landfall near 104.7N, this could be beyond catastrophic with the eyewall into a decent-sized city.

[1900hurricane]

Probably going to get some legit trochoidal oscillations now with an outer eyewall developing. Nailing down a landfall point just got that much tougher.

[mpic]

They keep saying on Houston news that we are going to really get dumped on tomorrow or Sunday, but beginning to think it won't happen. What am I missing?

[mrbagyo]

Big development, GPM pass is showing major signs of an outer eyewall.

IDK if that would be a good news or bad news... that EWRC may be very brief and would just make the RMW larger

[CrazyC83]

Big development, GPM pass is showing major signs of an outer eyewall.

IDK if that would be a good news or bad news... that EWRC may be very brief and would just make the RMW larger

I don't see it as good news at all. Even if it weakens 15 or 20 kt, it is still capable of total destruction, and it would occur in a much larger - and more populated - area.