EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

If I remember correctly, Haiyan rarely went under an ERC.

Maybe super storms are not prone to ERC's?

Haiyan actually underwent eyewall replacement twice prior to landfall and was about to start a third. Haiyan's replacement cycles were just unusually seamless.

[mrbagyo]

Awfully awesome

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: I do hope all residents on the affected areas particularly the coastal municipalities of Jalisco will ride out the storm in safe, sturdy shelters and they will all be safe from this storm. I also am fascinated by tracking this monstrous beast yet do hope it would not unleash its fury resulting in death and destruction. God Bless Mexico

They need to be entirely out of the area. No structure above ground is safe from these winds

I don't know how Mexico treats evacuations, but due to the hurricane intensifying extremely fast I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people didn't evacuate, hopefully there are some strongly built hospitals in the area.

This is truly a worst case scenario. Even in the US, such a storm would be difficult to prepare for. Think of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, which was a Cat 1 just 24 hours before landfall (I believe) and bombed out approaching the Keys. Even today, there would be no way everyone would evacuate from that.

[tolakram]

[wxman57]

Imagine the equivalent of a 40-mile wide EF-5 tornado, pushing 20-25 feet of water ahead of it, in a torrential rain storm, at night, and that's what you've got going here. Can't even imagine.

-Steve

The coast of Mexico is not like the northern Gulf coast. Very deep water just offshore would result in a much lower storm surge there. Also, Patricia is striking a "point" rather than a bay (like Haiyan). That would mitigate the storm surge as well.

Josh Morgerman is awaiting landfall on the coast of Mexico. He's looking for a building strong enough to survive. That may be difficult.

I just realized that I've now been on vacation for the strongest East Pac hurricane on record AND the strongest Atlantic hurricane (Wilma). Of course, for Wilma my vacation consisted of driving to Mississippi to spend a week sheetrocking my mother's flood-damaged home post-Katrina.

[Alyono]

I'd almost be tempted to cancel the recon flight on safety grounds. Yes, I really want the data. However, keeping the crew safe may be more important given the extreme intensity

[weathernerdguy]

Waves are looking like they are kicking up on the webcam

[CrazyC83]

Imagine the equivalent of a 40-mile wide EF-5 tornado, pushing 20-25 feet of water ahead of it, in a torrential rain storm, at night, and that's what you've got going here. Can't even imagine.

-Steve

The coast of Mexico is not like the northern Gulf coast. Very deep water just offshore would result in a much lower storm surge there. Also, Patricia is striking a "point" rather than a bay (like Haiyan). That would mitigate the storm surge as well.

Josh Morgerman is awaiting landfall on the coast of Mexico. He's looking for a building strong enough to survive. That may be difficult.

I just realized that I've now been on vacation for the strongest East Pac hurricane on record AND the strongest Atlantic hurricane (Wilma). Of course, for Wilma my vacation consisted of driving to Mississippi to spend a week sheetrocking my mother's flood-damaged home post-Katrina.

Unless the track shifts west and sends water into Bahia de Banderas (Puerto Vallarta) but it appears ground zero will be near Perula. Haiyan was truly a worst case scenario for the Philippines for surge as well as wind. This looks like wind will be threat #1, with rainfall the #2 threat.

[1900hurricane]

With the sun coming up, it'll be interesting to see if the -80*C tops in the CDO hold their ground. There's a good chance Patricia is in Tip's ballpark now.

[mrbagyo]

I'd almost be tempted to cancel the recon flight on safety grounds. Yes, I really want the data. However, keeping the crew safe may be more important given the extreme intensity

yeah.. I'll just be sending a global hawk into it since it can literally fly over it..and it's unmanned

[CrazyC83]

If Recon safely comes in, with this trend, maybe Tip will be scared now?

[Nate-Gillson]

I'm very worried about the safety of iCyclone.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Tip was 870 right? Those sat pics look insane. The clouds in the area of the strongest winds look incredible.

[Ntxw]

Tip was 870 right? Those sat pics look insane. The clouds in the area of the strongest winds look incredible.

Yes tip was 870. As many noted 880mb was impressive as it was the storm continued to strengthen during, and after recon. Likely 870s throughout the night already.

[Macrocane]

Wow, I can't believe it, I knew this could be a category 5 but 325 km/h winds is insane!

[TheProfessor]

Imagine the equivalent of a 40-mile wide EF-5 tornado, pushing 20-25 feet of water ahead of it, in a torrential rain storm, at night, and that's what you've got going here. Can't even imagine.

-Steve

That is a misconception, though 200 mph is still very bad by itself as it will destroy most building that aren't very strongly built it's actually quite different from an EF-5 tornado. The difference is that the hurricanes winds is a 1 minutes average compared to tornado's being a 1 second average. Also the winds in a tornado change direction every few seconds, which allows tornadoes to quickly destroy building quickly by pulling away at the bolts and screws holding them together. A hurricane's winds change direction in hours so though the winds are very strong, a well built structure like a hospital would likely survive it (not counting a threat from flooding). Though the hurricane could cause the same destruction, it takes a lot longer to do it, hopefully they won't be in the strongest winds long enough to flatten their stronger buildings. An analogy might be say someone has enough money to build a wall that can withstand 200 mph winds, but not enough to make a whole house. With a hurricane that person can figure out the most likely direction that the winds from the hurricane would hit and build that wall to protect from those winds and hope that the winds weaken before they change direction. With a tornado since the winds are changing direction insanely fast a direct hit would bypass the wall and destroy the rest of the house leaving the one wall standing. Nonetheless it's still a very bad situation down in Mexico.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

First full visible

[Annie Oakley]

Talk about Rapid Intensification......this twitter feed:
https://twitter.com/hashtag/Patricia?src=hash

[Annie Oakley]

https://twitter.com/hashtag/patricia


this one-sorry

[windnrain]

Literally off the charts.