EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

The HISTORICAL advisory is out.

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230834
TCDEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.

Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The
track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.
Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning
area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[supercane4867]

[Kingarabian]

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

And so are we...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

They're forecasting it to be 180kts before or at landfall.. Wow.

[Blizzard96x]

200mph...

[Yellow Evan]

Can not believe what I am reading.... 175 knots on an actual advisory.

[NotoSans]

I believe Patricia is now in the 870s range; unfortunately the aircraft has already left and there is no solid proof.

[1900hurricane]

The official forecast shows only a little more strengthening before landfall.

This sentence...man...

[AdamFirst]

205 MPH predicted before landfall.

Insanity. Absolute insanity.

[Kingarabian]

[Cyclenall]

The person at the NHC entering the intermediate advisory data in ACTF serve must have started shaking when he/she entered 175kts and 880mb.

Eric Blake had some very emotional tweets.

Can you post those please? After a lifetime of doing this sort of thing and being invested in forecasting and tropical cyclones, who knows, there could be some tears being shed right as we type all this.

I can't say that I ever thought I'd have a hurricane that is in all likelihood within 10 mb of Tip's record sitting so close to me. Just mindwarping.

Imagine what must be going through Josh M's head right now, likely spinning even more than ours.

I have been sitting in my chair for 9 hours with very few breaks . This also must be one of the fastest intensifying hurricanes while below 890 mb or so, Wilma didn't seem to strengthen like that when she got to 884 mb but I could be mistaken, this just has a deeper bottom is all. Record for the most off forecast for intensity for the NHC too, can't forget that (as with everyone's forecast or thoughts). Two more thoughts:

- Did they turn on the rapid scan or at least faster than 30 min images? Because the time pattern shifted on the floater images.

- The 02z SHIPS output showed the 6 hour intensity at 177 knots which is higher than the max potential intensity...what on earth!?!?!

[Kingarabian]

I believe Patricia is now in the 870s range; unfortunately the aircraft has already left and there is no solid proof.

I certainly think so. That CDG has gotten thicker since recon left.

[1900hurricane]

Could you imagine watching this with something like Himawari-8 or GOES-R? It would be astonishing...well, more than it already is if you can believe that.

[hurricaneCW]

I read an article that the max hurricane/typhoon intensity can't exceed 190 mph due to laws of physics, and here he had Haiyan and Patricia say otherwise. I must admit I never thought I'd see 200 mph sustained in an advisory.

[AdamFirst]

One thing that we can be fortunate about is that this 200 MPH behemoth is going to hit a relatively unpopulated part of the coastline...a few small communities & resort hideaways here and there, but it's largely rocky coastline and forest.

[TheStormExpert]

This storm is just... INSANE! 200mph(175kts) and expected to get EVEN STRONGER up to (180kts)205mph winds!? I seriously thought my eyes were playing tricks for a second.

Praying and hoping the best for everyone in this monster storms path! This is something to take VERY SERIOUSLY folks in Mexico.

[TheStormExpert]

I read an article that the max hurricane/typhoon intensity can't exceed 190 mph due to laws of physics, and here he had Haiyan and Patricia say otherwise. I must admit I never thought I'd see 200 mph sustained in an advisory.

Same here! I always thought 175-185mph was about the limit.

[NDG]

I could only imagine the kind of damage Patricia MX will have if it makes landfall at the current strength, I hope people get the heck out her way before is too late.

[tatertawt24]

Is it just me, or does the black ring of convection actually look to be expanding?

[TheStormExpert]

For the records. The 5am track of Patricia.

[mrbagyo]

I just can't wait for the first visible image.
Do we have any day/night band imagery from VIIRS?