Hurricaneman wrote:Andrew92 wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:I expect the 2016 hurricane season the El Nino will dissapate and a +Amo look to the Atlantic will be positive but the nagging negative might be the area of warm water SW of Baja California which if still there next hurricane season could shut down the Caribbean and possibly the MDR due to shear so I will go into more details in December
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Pretty similar to 1959 perhaps? What do you think about activity in the Gulf next year, after 2014 had no hurricanes and 2015 likely will finish with no hurricanes unless something changes drastically, meaning two straight years without one in that area? Seems quite unlikely on paper we would go three in a row without a hurricane in the Gulf anyway.
-Andrew92
Expecting more activity and potentially something major but that all depends on the anomalies SW of the Baja. If that remains it could be another down year but we will know more by spring
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To put 1959 in a bit of a nutshell:
I wasn't around that year (was born 25 years later), but I took a look at the sea surface anomalies in the Pacific during August and September about a week or so ago. That year was a La Nina, but the cold anomalies were limited to the equator and a couple degrees each way in the peak months for hurricanes. There was a pool of very warm anomalies southwest of Baja, with weaker anomalies extending eastward, even trying to reach the coast of Mexico and Central America (by that far east they were about as slight as possible, but they were there at least).
1959 currently is listed as 11 tropical storms, with 7 being hurricanes and 2 majors. But Sandy Delgado/HURAKAN re-analyzed that season as part of his master's thesis and came up with 14 tropical storm, but only 5 hurricanes and still 2 majors. The only previously-known unnamed hurricane and Cindy were both downgraded to tropical storms, the former still having hurricane intensity at its peak but not until becoming extratropical. Also noteworthy is that according to his re-analysis, one of the hurricanes that year, Flora, was only a hurricane on one standard point (e.g., 00Z, 06Z, etc.), so that may have only been a hurricane for a couple hours! (And if not for that little peak, we would be looking at 14/4/2 instead, if this analysis holds.) The MDR was almost completely shut down, with only Edith forming, which he has lasting only about 24 hours or so, and Flora which re-curved quickly. Edith also incidentally, according to Delgado, dissipates upon arrival in the Caribbean instead of near Hispaniola which we currently see officially. The only other storm that formed maybe just barely in the Caribbean was Judith, which as at least bordering on the Yucatan Channel anyway when it formed. He also has even Gracie, which formed near Hispaniola and the Bahamas, not as a hurricane until a bit further north, about where the loop or whatever it was executing was being completed. You could pretty much say the tropical latitudes were almost completely shut down that year, despite the season appearing on the surface to be a pretty busy one.
I'm really dying to see if the full re-analysis is done soon for 1956-1960, as if this warm pool that you are seeing holds true southwest of Baja, but we go to La Nina along and near the Equator, the Pacific SST anomalies could be fairly similar to 1959. Still, it stands to reason that a major could easily hit the United States, since Gracie was one when it hit near Hilton Head. 1983 was a somewhat similar setup, but the warmer anomalies in the Pacific were stronger further east that year, which I am guessing also led to the tropical latitudes being shut down that year. But that year did have Alicia, after all.
1983 is the year that is probably going to be brought up for comparison the most for next year if this pattern comes alive, given that Alicia was the bigger hit between her and Gracie, and that year was so famously (to us) inactive. But that year was during a quiet Atlantic cycle. 1959 was during a more active Atlantic cycle, and there's still no telling if this cycle is over yet.
Both years though had two hurricanes in the Gulf. 1959 had Debra and (briefly) Judith, along with three other tropical storms. 1983 of course had Alicia, but also Barry.
-Andrew92
