Texas Fall-2015

[weatherdude1108]

This is several hours old. But I noticed the moisture source from both the Caribbean and tropical Pacific.
Deep sources of endless moisture. Combine with a front and ULL, and you have a potential "waterfall" coming down from the atmosphere! Could get interesting around here if it bullseye's anywhere.


Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
430 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-211200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
430 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015

...RAINFALL LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL PACIFIC. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME SPOTS.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A
KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. THIS INCLUDES MOST OF THE HILL
COUNTRY...INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND COASTAL PLAINS. THIS
INCLUDES THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY
IN BURN AREAS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING COULD LEAD TO
DISRUPTIONS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY COULD REACH 3
TO 6 ALONG AND EAST OF A KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WEST OF THIS LINE...TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
FORECASTS AS DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BECOME
MORE CLEAR.

[weatherdude1108]

Here comes the ULL. Don't panic if you only get 1-3 inches from the first round and assume that is it

Yeah, the closer we get to it, the more real it is getting, and the more I believe it will happen! I have a movie date set up Saturday night at a nearby theatre. I may need a motor boat to get there!

[Brent]

DFW flood: October edition?

[TheProfessor]

The 6z GFS is finally showing more rain for Ohio, it gives me 1.5 inches, and I especially love hour 222 on the run.

[weatherdude1108]

After several months of drought, the ingredients for a classic October flood appear to be setting up. Need the rain, but.

Brings back memories of the October 1998 flood down here in San Antonio and the hill country.

388
FXUS64 KEWX 210929
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
429 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
BOTH WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE STATE
OF SONORA...MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEND A SHORT-WAVE
ACROSS WEST AND NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS PULSE OF ENERGY
WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
SERRANIA DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
STORMS LATER THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY...VAL VERDE...KINNEY AND EDWARDS COUNTIES.
MAIN WEATHER THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60
MPH.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

WITH PLENTY TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ADVERTISED TODAY
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLOODING...

BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND PUSHES TO THE
NORTHEAST COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLOODING. ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAS GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND EAST OF A
ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO LA PRYOR LINE. THE I-35 CORRIDOR...
INCLUDING AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS COULD END UP GETTING
HEAVY RAINS THURSDAY EVENING FROM 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS A LOW
LEVEL JET SETS UP WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 2.2
INCHES. STORM MOTION VECTORS ARE SHOWING STORMS MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH WITH CELLS TRAINING ALONG
INTERSTATE 35. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...SOME AREAS COULD GET 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...CANT RULE
OUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH.

THE RAIN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS CONTINUING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BRINGS BACK HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...DURING THIS PERIOD MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA OUT IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AS WELL AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. PWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 2.0 TO 2.3
INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND EAST OF A MOUNTAIN HOME TO PEARSALL LINE WITH TRAINING
CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN NO TIME.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH FLOODING BEING THE BIGGEST CONCERN MOVING
INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WEST
TEXAS WITH A NEW SURGE OF PWS RANGING FROM 2.1 TO 2.4 INCHES
PUSHING NORTH FROM THE GULF. DURING THIS TIME...CONDITIONS ALOFT
ARE FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS...WITH POSSIBLE 2 TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR. BASED ON STORM MOTION...GREATER LIFT/INSTABILITY...AREAS
ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 ARE EXPECTED TO GET
THE WORST OF THESE HEAVY RAINS. AS THE DAY GOES ON...THE HEAVY
RAINS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.

BOTH GFS AND ECM DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS COULD PROLONG THE EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEW AFTER DAYS OF GOOD
RAIN CHANCES...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUT WEST IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

[color=#0000FF]STORM TOTALS RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 8 TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY
OR THURSDAY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND NEWER MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THESE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. [/color]FARTHER WEST...1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE AREAS.

SOME LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS COUNTIES AS THE SURFACE LOW ABOVE MENTIONED PUSHES BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS COUNTIES.

AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH PAST OCTOBER STORMS...THE COMBINATION OF
THESE STRONGER SYSTEMS TAPPING INTO BOTH GULF AND PACIFIC PLUMES
OF MOISTURE CAN LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS. ALL INTERESTS IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

[Tireman4]

834
FXUS64 KHGX 211154
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
654 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF IFR TO VFR CIGS IN PLACE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY. /SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS NEAR
20 KNOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE./ EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 10 KNOTS AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR LBX/GLS. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AS THE
MORNING WEARS ON... WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEATING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE BEST CHANCES WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TERMINALS BUT SGR/CLL MAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BETTER INFLUX OF
GULF MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAF ATTM.

A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING... WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINALS... AND HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH FOR ALL SITES AFTER 06Z.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BIG RAIN EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST TEXAS AT
THE END OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...FOR TODAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY
THERE WILL BE A STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND A LOW
TO MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE STATE. AT 00Z
/7PM CDT/ LAST EVENING...AN ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER AIR LEVELS
SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AT 500 MB...SOUTHERN GA AT 700 MB...AND JUST EAST OF NC AT 850 MB.
THE RIDGE EXTENDED INTO SE TEXAS AT EACH LEVEL. THE DEEP LEVEL
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER NM WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE. THE WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWED ANOTHER AREA
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS
MEXICO AND TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE APPEARED TO BE
PARTIALLY TAPPED INTO TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA JUST SOUTH OF FAR
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAS LESS CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE MAINLY TO THE FACT
THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SHEARS OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS. THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO STAY MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC WILL AID IN KEEPING SOME POPS IN
PLACE...HOWEVER DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE FROM PATRICIA SOUTH OF
MEXICO WILL PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE THE CATALYST FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT FORECAST BY THE MODELS THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR THIS FORECAST KEPT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
WENT WITH POPS OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LESS COVERAGE OCCURS. SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY ONLY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THURSDAY HAVING THE BEST
CHANCES AS A SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH PW/S REACHING TO AROUND 2
INCHES MOVES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL FEED
INTO A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WITH INSTABILITY FURTHER PROVIDED
A COUPLE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS FORECASTS PW/S TO REACH
FROM 2.0 TO 2.4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF KEEP THE COASTAL SYSTEM IN PLACE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BOTH DAYS.

40

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...VEERING FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME AS SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC NUDGES FARTHER INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE MAIN UPDATES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WERE TO EXTEND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND SEAS BUILDING INTO THE 5 TO 8 FEET
RANGE RESPONSE. ALSO EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WITH
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY /WHERE MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED
ALONG HIGHWAY 87 ON BOLIVAR PENINSULA/ CONTINUING. STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS PUSHED TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

HUFFMAN

[dhweather]

The 6z GFS is finally showing more rain for Ohio, it gives me 1.5 inches, and I especially love hour 222 on the run.

You KNOW that at 222 hours, the GFS is spot on accurate!

[Ntxw]

Looking at NWS discussions flash flood watches are coming for north, central, and the middle Texas coast. We will soon have short range HI Res guidance to see where training of rain will occur. Models at times shift around but its there, WPC has highlighed excessive rainfall flooding along I-35/I-30 regions. Someone along that axis may exceed 10 inches of rain.

[Texas Snowman]

The 6z GFS is finally showing more rain for Ohio, it gives me 1.5 inches, and I especially love hour 222 on the run.

You KNOW that at 222 hours, the GFS is spot on accurate!

Isn't that the run with a....wait for it.....a CAT 5 IN THE GULF?!?

[dhweather]

The 6z GFS is finally showing more rain for Ohio, it gives me 1.5 inches, and I especially love hour 222 on the run.

You KNOW that at 222 hours, the GFS is spot on accurate!

Isn't that the run with a....wait for it.....a CAT 5 IN THE GULF?!?

HA!!

[CaptinCrunch]

Two things this morning....

1. This is what El Nino is all about, and with a Strong El Nino we could see this exact same setup several more time through out winter. With the snow cover across the arctic exploding this will only help build and maintain cold high's for them to get dumped into the middle of the country to mix in with this type of setup.

2. Halloween weekend still looking good for a possible cold damp night of tricks or treats....

[gboudx]

The good news for eastplex lakes, Ray Hubbard is about 3' low and Lavon is about 4.5' low. Since Lavon is technically a flood control lake, it can rise high above it's conservation pool level like it did late Spring.

[dhweather]

The good news for eastplex lakes, Ray Hubbard is about 3' low and Lavon is about 4.5' low. Since Lavon is technically a flood control lake, it can rise high above it's conservation pool level like it did late Spring.

Lavon can hold a lot of water for sure, it was 20 feet higher than today at the peak in June. I don't think this weekend will fill all that back up, soils will hold a lot of water due to the drought. Flash flooding might be a problem across parts of North Texas this weekend.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

The good news for eastplex lakes, Ray Hubbard is about 3' low and Lavon is about 4.5' low. Since Lavon is technically a flood control lake, it can rise high above it's conservation pool level like it did late Spring.

Really it is quite remarkable that Lavon is only 4.5' low given how extremely dry it has been since July 1 and the fact that none of the municipalities that draw water from it had watering restrictions in place. Nonetheless, good to see that we will be filling it back up pretty quickly.

[Brent]

[JayDT]

That 12z GFS run for the DFW area is.......

[Brent]

Whoever this person is put this on facebook:

iWeatherNet
35 mins ·

DFW/North Texas [Wednesday 10/21 11:30 am] New data coming in are showing ridiculous rainfall amounts over North Texas, in fact historic rainfall totals if these simulations verify. I may have to increase the numbers in my rainfall graphics later today. I have one more model suite that I want to analyze before I do that. Some data are indicating 14 to 18 inches of rain by Saturday evening over the metroplex. If this were to verify, it would be a historic and potentially catastrophic flood event. Updates to come...

-Chris Robbins, Meteorologist, M.S., iWeatherNet.com/dfw-weather

[Ntxw]

12z GFS would be a very serious problem. Lets wait for the Euro. As stated someone somewhere will see very hefty rainfall.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Whoever this person is put this on facebook:

iWeatherNet
35 mins ·

DFW/North Texas [Wednesday 10/21 11:30 am] New data coming in are showing ridiculous rainfall amounts over North Texas, in fact historic rainfall totals if these simulations verify. I may have to increase the numbers in my rainfall graphics later today. I have one more model suite that I want to analyze before I do that. Some data are indicating 14 to 18 inches of rain by Saturday evening over the metroplex. If this were to verify, it would be a historic and potentially catastrophic flood event. Updates to come...

-Chris Robbins, Meteorologist, M.S., iWeatherNet.com/dfw-weather

Yeah, I think that is what JayDT is referring to just above you. To these untrained eyes, the latest GFS puts totals above 15 inches right over DFW.

[JayDT]

Whoever this person is put this on facebook:

iWeatherNet
35 mins ·

DFW/North Texas [Wednesday 10/21 11:30 am] New data coming in are showing ridiculous rainfall amounts over North Texas, in fact historic rainfall totals if these simulations verify. I may have to increase the numbers in my rainfall graphics later today. I have one more model suite that I want to analyze before I do that. Some data are indicating 14 to 18 inches of rain by Saturday evening over the metroplex. If this were to verify, it would be a historic and potentially catastrophic flood event. Updates to come...

-Chris Robbins, Meteorologist, M.S., iWeatherNet.com/dfw-weather

Yeah, I think that is what JayDT is referring to just above you. To these untrained eyes, the latest GFS puts totals above 15 inches right over DFW.

Yes! That is exactly what i saw, i just didnt know how to post it. lol. That would be CRAZY if it verified.