Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

12z Euro is very wet across Texas. 2-4 inches of rain across central, North and west Texas. An area along the I-35 corridor especially around DFW is 5-6 inches of rain. Even more along the Texas coast. Shouldn't take actual totals for gospel but even half would be acceptable. Hoping it verifies. Once they start going up to 10+ inches I'd be more confident in calling for a heavy rain event

If you are wondering DFW needs about 6.2 inches of rain the rest of the year to crack top 10 wettest years

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well im ready for the rain to clear up all of the pollen!! Looks like this week will be a wet one.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS. If verified it would be from flash flood, to flash drought, and back to flash flood. Is it ever peaceful?



So in sum the Euro today is 4-8", GFS is 5-10". Too bad we're not talking about snow, but rain will do

[Tireman4]

18z GFS. If verified it would be from flash flood, to flash drought, and back to flash flood. Is it ever peaceful?



So in sum the Euro today is 4-8", GFS is 5-10". Too bad we're not talking about snow, but rain will do

For now brother...for now...he he...the best is yet to come this Winter

[Brent]

18z GFS. If verified it would be from flash flood, to flash drought, and back to flash flood. Is it ever peaceful?



So in sum the Euro today is 4-8", GFS is 5-10". Too bad we're not talking about snow, but rain will do

From fires to flood... gotta love Texas weather. (when it's not a thousand degrees outside)

[txprog]

Y'all talking about first freezes, I'd love to see the first official sub 50 degree low at DFW. I wonder if such records are kept? We didn't see this until Oct 31 last year, and an easy check of the data shows that in the last 12 years it was 2003, I think, that did not have a sub 50 degree reading in Oct, not till Nov 3rd. Will we see a sub 50 night in Oct?

Now, I know it really doesn't matter. Oct is ALWAYS warm, and while we sometimes get the first big real cool down in late Oct that doesn't always happen and a warm Oct implies nothing about the low sun angle season as say.

But this one has been, and looks to remain, quite warm.

Like most of us, with one noteable exception, sure looking forward to some jacket weather at least......

[dhweather]

12z Euro is very wet across Texas. 2-4 inches of rain across central, North and west Texas. An area along the I-35 corridor especially around DFW is 5-6 inches of rain. Even more along the Texas coast. Shouldn't take actual totals for gospel but even half would be acceptable. Hoping it verifies. Once they start going up to 10+ inches I'd be more confident in calling for a heavy rain event

If you are wondering DFW needs about 6.2 inches of rain the rest of the year to crack top 10 wettest years

Which is mind boggling. We could have one of the top 10 wettest years that included a top 10 stretch of no precipitation in the same year.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking better.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
612 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DRY AIRMASS WITH PWS 1 INCH OR LESS LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
TODAY...THEN MOISTURE RETURNS TO ALL AREAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AREAS AND WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. A
DRY SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SLOWLY GIVES
WAY TODAY...THEN MORE STRONGLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL
IN THE PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA OF CALIFORNIA/NEVADA DROPS SOUTHEAST TO CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA
BORDER TUESDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SURGES BACK INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PWS RISING ABOVE 1 ALL AREAS AND NEARS
1.5 INCHES NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
DIFFER ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY OPENS
UP ON WEDNESDAY WHILE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
UPWARD FORCING IS A LITTLE DELAYED AND HAVE REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED. PIECES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SURGES OVER TEXAS BOOSTING PWS TO
1.6 TO 2.2 INCHES. MODELS NO LONGER SHOW TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD DELAY THE MOISTURE
ALOFT. INCREASING UPWARD FORCING WITH FAVORABLE LOWER AND UPPER
LEVEL JET POSITIONS LEADS TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS PWS AND LIKELIHOOD OF THE TRAINING OF RAIN CELLS INDICATE
A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME SPOTS MAY PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE LAST PART OF THE TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS FORCING ENDS AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. IT IS AT
THIS TIME...THE GFS DEVELOPS A TROPICAL LOW OFF THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FROM A MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
WILL DISREGARD THIS FOR NOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM
AND DELAYING ANY TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015


THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH 50-70 POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING
THIS 24-36 HOUR PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS
NORTHEAST...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN INCREASING LIFT AND RICH MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WE HAVE MENTIONED A POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TEXAS LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE NOW BACKED OFF ON THIS SOLUTION WHICH MEANS
A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL NOT IMPINGE ON OUR MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE
GULF AND THUS AFFECT OUR RAIN CHANCES. INSTABILITY AND LAPSE
RATES WILL BE TOO LOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE RECENT DROUGHT...BUT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON ITS
HEELS...PASSING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL PUSH
A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THAT SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
SATURDAY AND/OR SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION...AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT. AS NORTHERLY 850-700 MB WINDS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN.

JLDUNN

[Ntxw]

Which is mind boggling. We could have one of the top 10 wettest years that included a top 10 stretch of no precipitation in the same year.

It has been a year of extremes even starting in January. Lots of rain winter months but little snow. Then came a 2 week period late Feb and March was one winter storm after another and then stopped. Went to spring. Took forever to get 100 but then kept going when it did.

All of these record warm and cold pools in the oceans wrecking havoc.

[Ralph's Weather]

Loving these mornings in the 40s, but sure hope the late week rain pans out. It has been a crazy year and that looks to continue into the winter.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

58F here at TPB. Felt great. IAH hit 51. Ready for the rain to clear all of this pollen.

[Ntxw]

Hey TPB I think it was you who brought up the October 1972 similarities. Looking like it now with the last two weeks.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hey TPB I think it was you who brought up the October 1972 similarities. Looking like it now with the last two weeks.

When it comes to being very hot with no precipitation i think it was spot on. Later in the month, it rained a bit but not like the rain we are about to receive. There was also a decent cold snap where on the 26th of Oct we had a high of 54. Soon after that, we were back in the mid 80's again though. for november, started out pretty warm in '72 but at mid-month the weather completely changed to very cool and consistent rain. Some days had highs in the 40's.


I will look into it more later on but somebody has got to work around here!

[weatherdude1108]

The 12Z QPF map has a donut hole forming over and northeast of Del Rio. I'm not jumping on the high rain total model bandwagon just yet (for central and southern Texas). I have been burned (no pun intended) too many times with model anticipation and excitement with my "rain goggles" on, drooling at these colorful maps.

In most cases, the rain forecasts have ended up not happening in reality, more times than I can count. The last event was supposed to drop 3-5 inches. The models kept shifting the QPF west as the low decided to drop southwest. The low dropped so much to the west and southwest, that the 3-5 inches predicted turned out to be a zero inch bust for a lot of us.

For this forecast to come to fruition, a lot of moistening in the column needs to take place at all levels, with the forcing trigger which will appear to come from the ULL to the west, and possibly from central American and Campeche moisture to the south.

Our humidity currently is in the 20% range, with a high fire danger still a threat. It is beautiful outside, but also tinderly dry.

I do have faith in the models and what most people are saying, but history (at least in the Austin area) has disappointed and deflated my enthusiasm, and made me cautiously optimistic. But, in contrast to that, the atmosphere has also been known to do a complete 180 in less than 12-24 hours.

All I know is the atmosphere has a lot of work to do before all the pieces come together, but it can, and does happen (and has happened).

We are in Texas after all, the land of extremes as Ntxw mentioned previously!

[dhweather]

Not looking like a 3-5" rain event, but I'll take whatever we can get.

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[Ntxw]

I agree on being cautiously optimistic. Probably a large area of 1-2 inches (we'll take that). Some folks will get lucky with 4-5 inches and more near the coast. Its rarely uniform with big rain events just have to be lucky. At least now it is within 5 days

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah, I'll take two inches over ZERO inches, or over any rain that falls that doesn't get into soil and evaporates the next day.

Guess it starts with the low level southeast fetch of moisture tonight.

FXUS64 KEWX 192044
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
344 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND WE HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE
LATEST FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL AREAS GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING. WE
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS
REMAINS IN PLACE. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL JET TO YIELD SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
COASTAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WE/LL ONLY MENTION A 20% CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FAR WEST TEXAS BY LATE THURSDAY. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALL THIS
ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5"
WEST TO 2.25" EAST) WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH SOILS ARE
CURRENTLY DRY ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREAS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN ONCE SOILS ARE SATURATED. WE/LL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR BURN
SCAR AREAS CAREFULLY AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE
TO FLASH FLOODING.

THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY
WHILE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS TEXAS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A SURFACE LOW OR PERHAPS ONLY A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THIS LOW ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
WILL IMPACT HOW LONG RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE. FOR NOW...WE/LL SHOW A
DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
COULD CHANGE PENDING LATER MODEL DATA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10...WITH HUMIDITIES FROM NEAR 20 TO 25 PERCENT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL AREAS TONIGHT
LEADING TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

[Portastorm]

12z Euro has a 9"+ convective bullseye over northern Travis County through Saturday. We all know THAT won't come true.

Both the Euro and GFS are taking turns shifting around the state various hot pockets of high rain totals. Hopefully they will hone in on that in the next 48 hours. I still think heaviest totals will be in southeast Texas, coastal plains, etc. But I think 1-2" here in Austin is a good bet.

[gboudx]

Porta you notice the donut hole forming over Texarkana? Figured you might want to make mention considering a certain poster from that area likes to poke fun at SW ATX.