2015 Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

Wasn't Hanna last year in late October an EPAC to BOC crossover?
http://i.imgur.com/1yGTrvk.gif

12Z EC has something very similar to this with a crossover system that heads east in the BOC toward the Yucatan in the long-range.

[chaser1]

My 70 year old neighbor believes something will hit florida because he heard on wftv that there's a good chance of something forming this weekend down there. He came back from lowes with wood to cover the windows.

when the duct tape comes out that's when there is cause for concern

Love that!! Well, got my duct tape by my side, and my 100 to 1 $1.00 bet already thrown down on the table! Bring it!

[AJC3]

Gang,

A thread on the disturbance in the western Caribbean was created Wednesday afternoon. The model-advertised surface low development in the BOC/GOMEX a week and change down the road seems to be tied to that area after it moves westward across the Yucatan and interacts with an approaching trough to the NW. We can put the model posts about this area in that thread from here on out. Thanks.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Thanks AJ, Good idea

[Alyono]

Watch by Bermuda late next week. Likely will see something forming there. MU going a bit crazy in terms of intensity though

[Hammy]

Euro seems to indicate the system in the western Atlantic could be more of a hybrid based on wind/pressure profile.

[Darvince]

GFS does so too now.

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z GFS has a 1005 mb Low forming in the NW Caribbean at 240hrs and makes it stronger to about a 988mb Hurricane while moving ENE towards SW Florida...at 384hrs

12Z Euro also has a Low in the NW Caribbean at 240hrs. It shows at 1009mb on the low-resolution

I don't have to remind everyone that these should be taken with a grain of salt given what we have learned about long range models recently...

[Hammy]

Euro no longer developing Atlantic system and GFS shows it being frontal. I dare say the season may be over at this point with the Gulf system now being over land for the duration on the latest runs.

[CourierPR]

12Z GFS has a 1005 mb Low forming in the NW Caribbean at 240hrs and makes it stronger to about a 988mb Hurricane while moving ENE towards SW Florida...at 384hrs

12Z Euro also has a Low in the NW Caribbean at 240hrs. It shows at 1009mb on the low-resolution

I don't have to remind everyone that these should be taken with a grain of salt given what we have learned about long range models recently...

I assume this would not be associated with what is in the WC now. Am I correct?

[TheStormExpert]

In a Strong El Niño season Hammy is probably most likely correct, plus we're half way through October already.

[Hammy]

I would like a dollar for every time i have seen your season is over posted i would prolly have a few hundred bucks in the jar. Some of you guy's and gals wrote it off before it even started.

Normally I personally argue against the season cancel posts. I'm going based on El Nino climo, model trends, and current conditions. I don't see anything developing beyond the next week or so, and if the two potentially modeled storms fail to develop, that is most likely it.

[Ntxw]

Yes it is mid October, anything modeled 7-14 days will be end of the month into November. Mid south will be seeing freezes and perhaps early season wintry weather come November. If its going to form it better do it fast.

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi sees one more storm coming from the Caribbean and another from the Atlantic.

[CourierPR]

Check out the CMC at 180 hours. It shows a storm right over South Florida.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Check out the CMC at 180 hours. It shows a storm right over South Florida.

No reliable Model shows it though.

[CourierPR]

Check out the CMC at 180 hours. It shows a storm right over South Florida.

That is the 12Z run and the system comes from the east.

[WYNweather]

Check out the CMC at 180 hours. It shows a storm right over South Florida.

That is the 12Z run and the system comes from the east.

Timing seems about right. Seems like we get a yearly scare right around boat show time.

[Hammy]

Euro showing a low in the N Gulf in about four days, so the models may have had the right solution (a low in the northern Gulf) but got there the wrong way by showing it coming from the SW Gulf as a tropical system.

[stormlover2013]

yeah GFS is showing that also Ham