Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean (Is INVEST 92L)

[LarryWx]

Florida,
I think I may be seeing something at 11N, 80.5W but it is tiny. I see thunderstorms building up there. Perhaps that's what you're looking at.

[northjaxpro]

larry look at south west carribbean north Panama you see sat pic their bit circulation but without storm that were weather map showing low at maybe this beginning what model showing

Florida,
I'm trying to find a counterclockwise low level circ. but don't see it yet. Please, if you can, tell me approximately what are the latitude and longitude. If you can't tell, that's ok. Thanks.
The clockwise upper level flow is easy to see though.

it area 10 and 80 lat lon north Panama

There is a surface trough depicted east of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize by NHC. There are no indications of a surface Low north of Panama at this time.

[LarryWx]

Jax,
Look carefully near 11.0N and 80.5W. Is that a tiny sfc low? It took awhile to see this but I'm wondering if that's what Florida is talking about. There are thunderstorms building up there and it looks to be hardly moving.

[floridasun78]

yes larry you see cloud moving south into south america over Columbia http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[northjaxpro]

Well Larry, there is an anticyclone down in that region of the SW Caribbean. That area you and floridasun are focusing on is so tiny that you almost need a magnifying glass to see it lol.. But, seriously, there are a few specs of convection trying to fire , and if that convection enhances some more, then I may possibly buy into something may be trying to get statred down there. Shear in that part of the Caribbean is light under that anticyclone at this time.

I don't see development happening down here at least for the next 4-5 days. Land interaction will prevent any Low pressure from developing as strong High Pressure will build down into the Mid Atlantic during the weekend and drive any Low pressure into Central America. Strong northeast-easterly flow will rule over Florida and the Southern GOM region this weekend into early next week. There will be a very moist fetch down across South Florida and south and west into the Southern GOM and over the NW Caribbean into next week. The best chance of any development may come by the early portions of next week as the energy (vorticity) may move into the Bay of Campeche by next Tuesday-Wednesday. There may be a window for something to develop in that region, as models are hinting at down the road next week. GFS long range is hinting at possible tropical or subtropical development in the BOC /Southern GOM within the next 10 days. Something to monitor for sure, especially next week.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS ensembles use the physics of all pre-2015 GFS which had major issues with TC genesis in the Western Caribbean.

[Alyono]

GFS ensembles use the physics of all pre-2015 GFS which had major issues with TC genesis in the Western Caribbean.

Now why would MU use outdated physics? What ever happened to just perturbing the initial conditions.

Uccelleni, FIX YOUR MODEL

[Alyono]

MU has this starting as tropical and going ET at landfall. CMC has a pure nontrop in the Gulf.

Thinking this does become an extratropical storm in the Gulf, not a TC

[Hurricane Alexis]

MU has this starting as tropical and going ET at landfall. CMC has a pure nontrop in the Gulf.

Thinking this does become an extratropical storm in the Gulf, not a TC

Interesting. Doesn't sound like something that happens too often in October.

[LarryWx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Hammy]

Not surprising there's still no mention as development is still well beyond the 120 hour time frame. Provided the models continue to show development, the earliest TWO mention would probably not be until Friday.

[LarryWx]

Not surprising there's still no mention as development is still well beyond the 120 hour time frame. Provided the models continue to show development, the earliest TWO mention would probably not be until Friday.

I agree that it isn't surprising being that they're very likely basing it strictly on the major models' output. I just thought that there was a small chance they'd have a 10% chance for earlier development.

[AJC3]

Thought I'd add this to discussion...rarely gets mentioned here but the discussion from the WPC Tropical Desk can be pretty useful.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
148 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015

<snip>

SOUTH OF THE POLAR TROUGH...AND EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A
TUTT  EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF/SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO
TO THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST FLATTENS
THE TUTT IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO-YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15MM. OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER GUATEMALA-BELIZE-EL
SALVADOR AND HONDURAS...WHERE THE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THE TROUGH
ALOFT IS TO ALSO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER WESTERN
CUBA...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM.

A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE LIES TO THE EAST OF THE
TUTT...WITH AXIS BETWEEN 90W-65W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. AT 250
HPA THE RIDGE ANCHORS ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS TO SUSTAIN AN UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THIS AREA...POSITIVE
INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION WILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.

<snip>

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC.
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
41W     43W    45W    46W    47W    48W    49W    50W        TW
50W     52W    54W    56W    58W    60W    62W    63W        TW
70W     74W    78W    81W    84W    86W    89W    91W        TW
86W     88W    89W    90W    91W    92W    93W    94W     TUTT INDCD.

<snip>

THE TUTT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO SUSTAINS AN EASTERLY WAVE IN
THE LOW LEVEL TRADES...WITH AXIS ALONG 86W EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS TO MEANDER WEST ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT PULLS ACROSS
CENTRAL-WESTERN HONDURAS-EL SALVADOR-BELIZE THIS WILL SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ACTIVITY
SURGES ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY WHEN MAXIMA INCREASES TO 35-70MM.
OVER THE YUCATAN TO SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
JOHNSON...NMC (JAMAICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

[LarryWx]

Thanks AJC.

The 0Z Euro hour 120 has a much weaker EPAC low vs the 12Z Euro and 0Z GFS. Will that result in a much different result in the GOM before this run ends? We'll see.

[AJC3]

Seems like there is a good bit of X-posting in the global models thread that is at least loosely related to the area of disturbed weather being talked about here. Thinking of moving the posts that have been made since this thread was started over here.


Edit: Done

[LarryWx]

Good idea. Also, if you do that, should this thread title should be modified to include Bay of Campeche also?

Meanwhile, the 0Z Euro 168 has a strong EPAC low moving N.

[AJC3]

:uarrow: Good idea. Also, if you do that, should this thread title should be modified to include Bay of Campeche also?

Well, I just changed it a couple hours ago to reflect the position of the current disturbance, as opposed to where it may or may not develop. The incipient t-wave curves NE-ward as you head north and actually straddles CENTAM, the southern Yucatan and the NW Caribbean at the moment. By tomorrow, we could probably title this "Tropical Wave over the Yucatan/CENTAM".

From the last few 8AM TWDs...

THU 10/08 TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 21N61W 17N62W 14N63W 10N63W MOVING W 15 KNOTS
FRI 10/09 TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W/68W FROM PUERTO RICO S TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA...MOVING W 15 KNOTS
SAT 10/10 TROPICAL WAVE FROM 11N73W TO 19N71W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
SUN 10/11 TROPICAL WAVE FROM 10N80W TO 19N78W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
MON 10/12 TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W FROM 10N-18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT
TUE 10/13 TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 85W S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 5 KT

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: crossover into B of C from EPAC hour 192.

Edit: At hour 240, hits far SE LA tip at 997 mb moving NE toward MS/AL/far W FL Panhandle.

[Weatherwatcher98]

0Z Euro: crossover into B of C from EPAC hour 192.

Edit: At hour 240, hits far SE LA tip at 997 mb moving NE toward MS/AL/far W FL Panhandle.

As I said before, I believe LA east are the most likely Area(s) to watch, in terms of Impacts from this "Disturbance".

[N2FSU]

0Z Euro; +192hr