2015 Global model runs discussion

[LarryWx]

even though I watched something that said euro and GFS has it going to Texas and I just laughed because its unheard of a storm this late hitting Texas right???

False. It isn't unheard of for a TC to hit TX this late though it is fairly rare to get a TC in the far W GOM this late. NE TX and LA may need to watch this one if there ends up being a W GOM TC. This modeled GOM TC actually seems to largely originate from a weak WC low that crosses over. In other words, this looks to me like the low that had earlier formed into a WC TC. This could easily still end up being a phantom obviously.

I put the odds of a W GOM TC in the kind of low category as of now but certainly not as low as a longshot. The GFS has been showing this for a couple of days now.

[HurrMark]

Something trying to bubble over in BOC at 159 hours in GFS...

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS continues with a W GOM TC. It starts out from a weak WC low (the one that several days ago was developing into a TC in the WC) that crosses over to the B of C and then later an EPAC low's energy crosses over and combines with the preexisting B of C low. That's my take on it. It looks kind of complex. I still put the odds as low but something to keep watching and still not down to a longshot.

The 12Z CMC does something pretty similar.

[rickybobby]

My 70 year old neighbor believes something will hit florida because he heard on wftv that there's a good chance of something forming this weekend down there. He came back from lowes with wood to cover the windows.

[HurrMark]

Doesn't look as symmetric as the earlier run even though pressures are low. Looks like the EC trough is deeper and maybe this is more baroclinic in nature.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS turns it sharply E then ESE in the Western Gulf in the long-range and looks to maybe partially merge with a front.

[CourierPR]

I'm looking at the GOES-EAST Satellite Model and I notice robust convection in the western Caribbean. Is something beginning to take shape? I realize 30 minutes ago is a long way out but it seems that this might be an area to watch.

[LarryWx]

I'm looking at the GOES-EAST Satellite Model and I notice robust convection in the western Caribbean. Is something beginning to take shape? I realize 30 minutes ago is a long way out but it seems that this might be an area to watch.

The current WC convection in association with a very weak area of lower pressures has been very well forecasted for many days by models and is the same convection/energy that had been forming into a NW Carib TC on runs from a few days ago. Now, (virtually) no models are any longer forming that NW Carib TC. However, most models continue to have a weak NW Carib low coming from what's now in the W Carib. and they then crossover that weak low into the B of C, where some form a stronger low, which then gets additional energy from below in the EPAC. Complex and very low confidence situation!

[N2FSU]

I'm looking at the GOES-EAST Satellite Model and I notice robust convection in the western Caribbean. Is something beginning to take shape? I realize 30 minutes ago is a long way out but it seems that this might be an area to watch.

I noticed that too.

[LarryWx]

I'm looking at the GOES-EAST Satellite Model and I notice robust convection in the western Caribbean. Is something beginning to take shape? I realize 30 minutes ago is a long way out but it seems that this might be an area to watch.

I noticed that too.

This is the same area/very weak low that model consensus had earlier been forming into a NW Caribbean TC as opposed to moving it over into the Bay of Campeche and then developing it.
I agree that it should be watched in FL, especially in case the consensus from last Friday/early Sat. of the major models (including Euro) were to end up right and a NW Caribbean TC actually does form from this. It is still not at all out the realm of reasonable possibilities for this to form into a NW Carib TC as it is projected to move only very slowly NW for a good number of days from now and will likely still be in the WC for at least the next 5 to maybe 6 days from now. IF this ends up staying further out in the open water than progged, look out. This is also the same area that the NAVGEM was forming into a NW Carib TC up until late yesterday's runs.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, something will come my way now that I went ahead and pulled the trigger putting a new roof on this week.

[HurrMark]

Looks like that big frontal system shunts it east and dissipates it before it becomes a nuisance...a good 12-14 days away though...

[stormlover2013]

looks like what he had like 4 weeks ago in the BOC

[LarryWx]

Looks like that big frontal system shunts it east and dissipates it before it becomes a nuisance...a good 12-14 days away though...

Yes, but this is progged to still be in the WC for about the next 5-6 days by model consensus. A lot can happen between now and then and I'm considering this a lower than normal confidence situation for the WC. I'm still considering it a low chance but not a longshot chance by any means as of yet. It is moving way too slowly for me to bet the farm on this to not develop in the WC. I wouldn't touch that bet with a ten foot pole.

Edit: Fwiw, the 12Z GFS and recent other GFS runs are progging only light shear (under 10 knots) in the vicinity of this weak low for the duration until it is progged to leave the WC in 5 or so days. Be wary! If this were to develop significantly, all bets would be off as to future track as the models aren't currently taking that into account and steering would be different.

If I were putting together a TWO, I'd definitely make this area code yellow for the within 5 day timeframe for the WC.

[jlauderdal]

My 70 year old neighbor believes something will hit florida because he heard on wftv that there's a good chance of something forming this weekend down there. He came back from lowes with wood to cover the windows.

when the duct tape comes out that's when there is cause for concern

[Sanibel]

North of Panama?


Lots of nearby shear.

[LarryWx]

North of Panama?

Yes, that's the area to be watched as it very, very slowly moves NW (per models). The 2PM TWO made no mention of this. I'd at least make this a code yellow/lemon for 10% chance within 5 days. The 12Z and earlier GFS runs have very low shear near its projected track as it moves NW fwiw. When combining this with earlier runs having this develop in the NW Caribbean and the favorable climo, I'd definitely keep a wary eye on this as others are already doing. Convection will probably wax and wane over the next few days but the entity will still be there.

[stormlover2013]

still long range im not worried about it right now, atleast we have stuff to do and can watch models for a week lol

[Weatherwatcher98]

Like Larry said, very complex set up with lots of variables. Something to watch.

[floridasun78]

look like nhc not worry about area yet in sw Caribbean