2015 Global model runs discussion

[LarryWx]

I was just checking and the NAVGEM has had a WC genesis on every run since that timeframe got into its forecasting range! Today's 12Z run is just the next in the long line of this model's runs showing it. Basically, when the major models changed to being bearish about it at 6Z/12Z Saturday, the NAVGEM didn't blink and it still hasn't blinked at all!

[Nimbus]

Where was the NAVGEM showing the storm coming from, the energy north of Panama?
The wave moving into the Caribbean doesn't look well enough organized and the pouch further east near 40w would take more than a week to reach the gulf.

[LarryWx]

Where was the NAVGEM showing the storm coming from, the energy north of Panama?
The wave moving into the Caribbean doesn't look well enough organized and the pouch further east near 40w would take more than a week to reach the gulf.

Yes, it originates from the energy now north of Panama that it then moves very slowly NW though actual TC genesis doesn't look like it occurs til ~10/16 in the NW Caribbean, which by the way is close to the timing of genesis when the major model consensus had it. It is like the NAVGEM is in a time warp.

Edit: the 12Z Para GEFS doesn't support WC genesis. So, it is the mighty NAVGEM against the world at 12Z.

[chaser1]

The NAVGEM has not folded still. Shows basically the same thing as the 06Z, I am going to say one of the next couple of runs it will fold and show zip.

SO highly unlikely, minus other model support LOL. Then again, I've got a dollar... someone want to give me a hundred to one odds? I might just take that bet

[WPBWeather]

The NAVGEM has not folded still. Shows basically the same thing as the 06Z, I am going to say one of the next couple of runs it will fold and show zip.

SO highly unlikely, minus other model support LOL. Then again, I've got a dollar... someone want to give me a hundred to one odds? I might just take that bet

It better be, speaking for most of Florida.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GFS actually has a very weak WC low on 10/19. There also is no organized EPAC low on 10/19 for the first time in at least four runs as the 10/17-8 low there weakens. So, I suspect there may be a connection.

Note the maps from hour 150 through hour 186 and compare them to especially the last two GFS runs for the same timeframe. They definitely look pretty different vs those earlier GFS runs in both the NW Caribbean and in the EPAC.

For example, check out hour 180 on the 18Z GFS and compare to the 186 on 12Z/192 on 6Z/198 on 0Z. Note how much further east into the WC is precip. then. This is more than likely an unimportant blip but I want to make sure of that.

It doesn't amount to much as this run goes along as it then moves inland. However, it is a small warning sign to keep watching the models and make sure the consensus doesn't return to a true WC genesis that then moves more northward like the NAVGEM keeps insisting. Keep in mind that it was only 2.5 days ago that the major models all had that. This along with considering mid-Oct. WC climo is why I've in my mind decreased chances of a WC TC down only to "low" and not down to a "longshot" quite yet. Also, fwiw, the 18Z GFS has no more than light to occasionally moderate shear in much of the far WC after the next 72 hours. I had been planning on waiting til tomorrow at the earliest to downgrade to "longshot".

Let's see what the 0Z model consensus shows tonight.

[gatorcane]

Boy the 18Z NAVGEM will not fold and not only that it is bringing in the timeframe of not only when it develops (it forms a low starting in 24 to 48 hours east of Nicaragua) but when it gets into the SE GOM and then Southern Florida. Could you imagine if this was the GFS instead? You got to think the NAVGEM will fold soon. What could it possibly be seeing?

[rickybobby]

Found this on Dr. Jeff Master's blog.
"There should be an increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the Western Caribbean this weekend and early next week that will be worth watching for tropical cyclone development, though."
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=3152

[Nimbus]

October 24,1921 was the last time a major hurricane hit the Tampa bay area.
So maybe the NAVGEM is just going with climo, decreasing seasonal shear and late season energy in the western Caribbean. If there is even a 5 percent chance of a circulation developing its worth modeling.

[WPBWeather]

Boy the 18Z NAVGEM will not fold and not only that it is bringing in the timeframe of not only when it develops (it forms a low starting in 24 to 48 hours east of Nicaragua) but when it gets into the SE GOM and then Southern Florida. Could you imagine if this was the GFS instead? You got to think the NAVGEM will fold soon. What could it possibly be seeing?

If anything close to this appears, it will be a spectacular EC and GFS failure, I believe.

[SFLcane]

Garbage model i'll will the powerball before its even remotely close to being right. I'am watching though

[AutoPenalti]

Boy the 18Z NAVGEM will not fold and not only that it is bringing in the timeframe of not only when it develops (it forms a low starting in 24 to 48 hours east of Nicaragua) but when it gets into the SE GOM and then Southern Florida. Could you imagine if this was the GFS instead? You got to think the NAVGEM will fold soon. What could it possibly be seeing?

http://i.imgur.com/h4T2i88.gif

If anything close to this appears, it will be a spectacular EC and GFS failure, I believe.

Land interaction vs non?

[gatorcane]

Yeah the NAVGEM will likely fold you would think (either the upcoming 00Z run or the 06Z run), it is (somewhat, not really though) interesting the CMC model is back to showing a low that moves NW towards the Yucatan channel similar to the NAVGEM but way weaker. Wouldn't surprise me if the CMC model blows it up on the 00Z run because, well it is the CMC!

[CourierPR]

[quote="gatorcane"]Boy the 18Z NAVGEM will not fold and not only that it is bringing in the timeframe of not only when it develops (it forms a low starting in 24 to 48 hours east of Nicaragua) but when it gets into the SE GOM and then Southern Florida. Could you imagine if this was the GFS instead? You got to think the NAVGEM will fold soon. What could it possibly be seeing?

I tweeted Joe Bastardi earlier this evening to ask him if the NAVGEM is out to lunch. No reply, yet. That model is sure tenacious, Gatorcane.

[NDG]

Boy the 18Z NAVGEM will not fold and not only that it is bringing in the timeframe of not only when it develops (it forms a low starting in 24 to 48 hours east of Nicaragua) but when it gets into the SE GOM and then Southern Florida. Could you imagine if this was the GFS instead? You got to think the NAVGEM will fold soon. What could it possibly be seeing?

I tweeted Joe Bastardi earlier this evening to ask him if the NAVGEM is out to lunch. No reply, yet. That model is sure tenacious, Gatorcane.

I really doubt JB will tweet about the NAVGEM, when first of all is a bad model to follow secondly it could create a false alarm with his followers.

[WPBWeather]

Boy the 18Z NAVGEM will not fold and not only that it is bringing in the timeframe of not only when it develops (it forms a low starting in 24 to 48 hours east of Nicaragua) but when it gets into the SE GOM and then Southern Florida. Could you imagine if this was the GFS instead? You got to think the NAVGEM will fold soon. What could it possibly be seeing?

I tweeted Joe Bastardi earlier this evening to ask him if the NAVGEM is out to lunch. No reply, yet. That model is sure tenacious, Gatorcane.

I really doubt JB will tweet about the NAVGEM, when first of all is a bad model to follow secondly it could create a false alarm with his followers.

We await the great weather god JB. Please speak to us!

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS actually has a very weak WC low on 10/19. There also is no organized EPAC low on 10/19 for the first time in at least four runs as the 10/17-8 low there weakens. So, I suspect there may be a connection.

Note the maps from hour 150 through hour 186 and compare them to especially the last two GFS runs for the same timeframe. They definitely look pretty different vs those earlier GFS runs in both the NW Caribbean and in the EPAC.

For example, check out hour 180 on the 18Z GFS and compare to the 186 on 12Z/192 on 6Z/198 on 0Z. Note how much further east into the WC is precip. then. This is more than likely an unimportant blip but I want to make sure of that.

It doesn't amount to much as this run goes along as it then moves inland. However, it is a small warning sign to keep watching the models and make sure the consensus doesn't return to a true WC genesis that then moves more northward like the NAVGEM keeps insisting. Keep in mind that it was only 2.5 days ago that the major models all had that. This along with considering mid-Oct. WC climo is why I've in my mind decreased chances of a WC TC down only to "low" and not down to a "longshot" quite yet. Also, fwiw, the 18Z GFS has no more than light to occasionally moderate shear in much of the far WC after the next 72 hours. I had been planning on waiting til tomorrow at the earliest to downgrade to "longshot".

Let's see what the 0Z model consensus shows tonight.

Yeah I noticed the 18Z GFS is quite a bit different than the previous runs. In fact, one thing that is interesting is that it develops the EPAC low much further east and quicker and attempts to recurve it much sooner. If the GFS shifts the EPAC low more to the right, where it can get back into the NW Caribbean area, it would be interesting. Clearly it's a long shot given the progged 500MB heights across the Western Caribbean that are expected to build by the end of this week into the weekend but worth watching in case the heights are not as high as models think.

18Z GFS (156 hours):


12Z GFS (180 hours):

[northjaxpro]

If the GEM 138 hour forecast verifies, along with the recent runs of GFS and EURO, I think that whatever that does try to form down in the Western /NW Caribbean will likely get buried into Central America or traverse west into the BOC or even the EPAC. GEM is forecasting a very strong High Presuure across the Northern Plains region within a week. That will keep any Low Pressure area pinned down and very slim chances of moving poleward imo.

Also, that High looks rather potent at 1035 mb with polar origins on the GEM and if that verifies, the first significant cold snap of the Fall season may be impacting much of the Midwest, Northern Plains, Great Lakes and areas of the Eastern CONUS as we head into late October.

[Hurricaneman]

We should watch the trends, well see if the GFS gravitates towards the NAVGEM ot heads back towards the Euro solution

[stormlover2013]

Lol guys navy sucks why even post it lol...99.9999 this isn't going to be anything


disclaimer: This is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are of my opinion and and should NOT be treated as an official forecast