2015 Global model runs discussion

[LarryWx]

Their wasn't a threat to FL until a actual storm formed. Also the MJO upward phase is coming to the West Carribean next week. So no matter what model says what.. If atmosphere is right.. A storm will form regardless. We have to start looking at atmosphere more & not rely on models runs that far out. All models this year haven't performed like they're supposed to

I agree with your point about not relying on models. They're not even close to the equivalent of a crystal ball since even the model consensus often ends up way off. I certainly know to take them with a grain in most cases. However, I still look at models as good tools to at least give us some guidance. If there hadn't been numerous model runs showing WC genesis, do you honestly think there'd have been nearly the amount of discussion about this so far in advance? I say no way. Regardless, this is the models thread. This is exactly where modeled threats and the lack thereof should be discussed.

By the way, the 12Z Euro (like the 12Z GFS/CMC) has no WC genesis. The chance for a mid Oct. WC genesis has dropped a fair bit in my mind since yesterday's 0Z runs, which all showed this along with a potential threat for S FL. Note that I'm not saying there's now anywhere close to no chance. However, that chance has dropped since early yesterday in my mind and it will continue to drop if the current consensus continues. Assessed chances like these are ever changing in my mind as one gets close and closer to the timeframe.

[gatorcane]

It's interesting to note the GFS and GEM ensembles keep insisting on a NW Caribbean system with the GEM ensembles even more bullish as of 12Z. Note the GEM operational clearly over-develops systems but if you follow the GEM ensembles, they are not nearly as bullish usually.

[blp]

It's interesting to note the GFS and GEM ensembles keep insisting on a NW Caribbean system with the GEM ensembles even more bullish as of 12Z. Note the GEM operational clearly over-develops systems but if you follow the GEM ensembles, they are not nearly as bullish usually.

[]http://i.imgur.com/5jxiZHv.png[/img]
[]http://i.imgur.com/gCZ5S15.png[/img]

That almost looks like an even split 50/50 between EPAC versus NW Carribean.

Also the Parallel is weaker but also shows the split.

[Hammy]

In the end the high pressure seems to have been underestimated yet again by the earlier runs, similar to other events this year the models overall continue to have a right bias, and in this case it made the difference between a phantom storm and the more likely event of whatever occurs ending up in the Pacific. I'd say chances of Caribbean development are 0%.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I agree Hammy.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Gfs and now the Canadian bury it in central america. Euro comes out later today but it should also do the same. Development in the WC appears non existent now. End of the season appears to be approaching.


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Are you sure?
I wouldn't jump the gun over model runs. Usually pro mets use the atmosphere & don't just rely on one model.

Yes I am sure. The Gfs and Euro are the 2 best global models in the world and neither of them show tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean. These are the best and most advanced computers that money can buy and they can resolve the physics and laws of motion far faster than any human can.

You are correct that we should not rely on one model. Meteorologists use multiple models for guidance and if we are talking about multiple models we have the Gfs, Euro, Canadian, Ukmet, Jma, etc showing no development in the Caribbean. There are some ensembles that show activity but these are probablistic models not genesis forecasting models.

I have no doubt that if this low pressure gyre were to stay 50-75 miles further east away from land we would be talking about tropical cyclone formation. The fact is that we cannot magically erase Central America off the maps and it is these land areas that will prevent development. This has nothing to do with the atmosphere being unfavorable and has everything to do that there will just be too much land areas to disrupt development.


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[LarryWx]

18z GFS continues the trend of the operational models since yesterday of getting away from WC genesis in mid Oct. As long as the major operational models continue to show this, the chances of a WC genesis for mid Oct. will keep declining in my mind. However, I am not thinking of the odds as anywhere close to zero yet as it is still too early in my mind even though they're dropping little by little with every run now.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Navgem has a glimmer of hope for development as it shows a strong TS at the west tip of Cuba drifting North. Take it with a grain of salt




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[gatorcane]

From what I can see analyzing the models, all of them seem to be developing some kind of area of low pressure (or low-level vorticity) in the SW Caribbean over the next couple of days and they move this low pressure WNW with varying solutions with the NAVGEM the most to the right with a more NW track into the NW Caribbean and the UKMET with a more W or WSW track into the EPAC. The GFS and ECMWF move the vorticity to just east of Belize by hour 150-168.

What has caused the trend away from development over this weekend appears to be the global models showing much more ridging stretching across the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf that builds in towards the middle to end of this week and lasts though day 10. That does not allow the low pressure area to turn north in the NW Caribbean or into the Southern/SE Gulf where it probably would have been able to develop. Instead the low-level vorticity heads inland into Central America.

[WPBWeather]

From what I can see analyzing the models, all of them seem to be developing some kind of area of low pressure (or low-level vorticity) in the SW Caribbean over the next couple of days and they move this low pressure WNW with varying solutions with the NAVGEM the most to the right with a more NW track into the NW Caribbean and the UKMET with a more W or WSW track into the EPAC. The GFS and ECMWF move the vorticity to just east of Belize by hour 150-168.

What has caused the trend away from development over this weekend appears to be the global models showing much more ridging stretching across the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf that builds in towards the middle to end of this week and lasts though day 10. That does not allow the low pressure area to turn north in the NW Caribbean or into the Southern/SE Gulf where it probably would have been able to develop. Instead the low-level vorticity heads inland into Central America.

Bastardi and Cosgrove claim the right pattern is present in the Gulf for a late season storm, but give no specific dates for such an event.

[WeatherEmperor]

When did they say that?


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[blp]

From what I can see analyzing the models, all of them seem to be developing some kind of area of low pressure (or low-level vorticity) in the SW Caribbean over the next couple of days and they move this low pressure WNW with varying solutions with the NAVGEM the most to the right with a more NW track into the NW Caribbean and the UKMET with a more W or WSW track into the EPAC. The GFS and ECMWF move the vorticity to just east of Belize by hour 150-168.

What has caused the trend away from development over this weekend appears to be the global models showing much more ridging stretching across the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf that builds in towards the middle to end of this week and lasts though day 10. That does not allow the low pressure area to turn north in the NW Caribbean or into the Southern/SE Gulf where it probably would have been able to develop. Instead the low-level vorticity heads inland into Central America.

I agree.

Also, because of the MJO, conditions will be favorable in the NW Carribean for much of October. So even if this vorticity does not form I would not be surprised with another one popping up later in the month. Will be interesting to see how this evolves.

[WPBWeather]

When did they say that?


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Bastardi last week on Twitter and Weatherbell. Cosgrove on Weather America yesterday.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GFS has no sign of a WC low through at least 10/21. This was the day that models had been centered on for at least near S FL as of as recently as 0Z two days back (10/10). When timing slips like that, it obviously increases the chance that those runs for a WC genesis between ~10/16 and 10/19 were based on a phantom (for land interaction reasons, too much energy in the EPAC, or whatever other reason).

HM, if you're still here, what do you think?

[Hurricaneman]

It will probably either die over Central America or develop in the EPAC

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[Alyono]

BOC development in about 10 days

[chaser1]

Impressive sprawling 1034 surface high looking to set up over the US Conus coastline in about 174 hours. Helpful trigger toward aiding cyclonic turning, well to it's south. I'm in "that camp" guessing that we'll see something make an attempt at forming between the W. Caribbean or S. Gulf before the end of the month.

[chaser1]

BOC development in about 10 days

What model ? every model i have eyeballed all vorts are moving into the epac nothing i can can see moves nw.

(okay, sure we're talking almost November LOL, but... 996mb - 384 hr.'s, 0Z GFS)

[Alyono]

EPAC development seems far more likely given the el niño. If we had cold waters in the EPAC, then Caribbean development would be more likely.

[LarryWx]

Nothing on the 0Z Euro in the WC. Fwiw, the 0Z GEFS does have about 6 members in the E GOM or over FL around 10/22 fwiw. Even though chances keep dropping, I'm still not ready to declare this a WC phantom.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_45.png

Same goes for the 0Z CMC ens:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_44.png

Although the chances for WC genesis are now steadily dropping, it is entirely possible that this story's final chapter has still yet to be determined, especially considering the half a dozen or so GEFS and GEPS members noted though I'd now have to consider a WC genesis may be headed toward longshot territory within the next two days if operationals don't start coming back the other way.