2015 Global model runs discussion

Weatherwatcher98 · #1541 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:41 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:12z Navy Navgem has a TS drifting north near the western tip of Cuba at 180hrs

Leta give it another day or so. If all models then stop WC development then we can move on but I have a feeling that if the 18z Gfs later today for example shows development just 60 miles further east, it could show development in the WC again. Land interaction is so critical.

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Nav Gem is Horrible

#1542 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:44 pm

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z GEPS (CMC ensembles) has alot of activity across the Western and NW Caribbean
CMC

but most of the GFS ensembles are in the NW Caribbean too with a track to the NE.

Weatherwatcher98 · #1543 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 3:01 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z GEPS (CMC ensembles) has alot of activity across the Western and NW Caribbean
CMC

but most of the GFS ensembles are in the NW Caribbean too with a track to the NE.

Ok

#1544 Postby **LarryWx** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 3:03 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z GEPS (CMC ensembles) has alot of activity across the Western and NW Caribbean
CMC

but most of the GFS ensembles are in the NW Caribbean too with a track to the NE.

Good point. However, also note that over half of GEFS members now develop in the Epac before that whereas recent runs had far fewer there. 18Z of yesterday had only about 9. Now it is ~15.

floridasun78 · #1545 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 3:03 pm

want see any storm area before start worry model right

Weatherwatcher98 · #1546 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 3:03 pm

Honestly with the fronts coming down and cooler weather. I hope the season is over. Hopefully most people agree

#1547 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:30 pm

The 18z Gfs starts soon and honestly if it is the same as the 12z I think it becomes time to let this go and prepare for the season to end in terms of impacts with all these cool fronts coming down and giving more pleasant weather

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HURRICANELONNY · #1548 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:32 pm

Everytime pressures lower in the carribean. Models pop lows everywhere

#1549 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:05 pm

I'd be more concerned this far out if the models are saying EPAC with development instead of the WC and Gulf with the way they have performed so far this season. I remember early on they were developing 99L only to reverse themselves within a couple days.

#1550 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:28 pm

18Z GFS is going with the EPAC like the ECMWF, the chances of development in the NW Caribbean appear to be decreasing...

rickybobby · #1551 Postby **rickybobby** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:31 pm

It's way too early to predict anything. I don't trust models until it's 20 hours from hitting land. I remember everyone on tv saying Jeanne would go our to sea and have no impact on florida.

Hurricane Alexis · #1552 Postby **Hurricane Alexis** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:38 pm

It's still over 5 days out. For all we know, it could be an epac storm, a caribbean storm, or a phantom storm.

floridasun78 · #1553 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:41 pm

so was fault alarm by model saying nw and sw Caribbean was going get active?

#1554 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:43 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I'd be more concerned this far out if the models are saying EPAC with development instead of the WC and Gulf with the way they have performed so far this season. I remember early on they were developing 99L only to reverse themselves within a couple days.

The thing is that from the beginning the Gfs was developing in the WC. I think once or twice did it show Epac but it was pretty much WC. The Euro started off by showing weak low pressure in the Epac for several days and all of a sudden yesterdays 12z and this mornings 0z run showed WC development...before ultimatelt going back to the Epac side. So I think the WC was wrong and now that the timeframe is coming in closer they are realizing it will probably get going in the Epac side. A lot can still change but chances for WC development appear to be going down

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AutoPenalti · #1555 Postby **AutoPenalti** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:43 pm

floridasun78 wrote:so was fault alarm by model saying nw and sw Caribbean was going get active?

It's more of a wait and see approach.

#1556 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:45 pm

Well out through 10 days, the 18Z GFS seems to be suggesting the EPAC system crossover into NW Caribbean (or some other low still forming in the NW Caribbean) with a low moving north along the eastern coast of the Yucatan, looks to be slowly getting stronger. Let's see how the rest of the run ends...

#1557 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:54 pm

@gator, do u see how critical the exact location of a developed llc would be there at 240hrs? If it comes just 50 miles further east it is completely over water in the WC as opposed to being on land in the Yucatan. Location is critical

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#1558 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 6:03 pm

The 18Z GFS (MU) finally lifts out the Yucatan low and intensifies it as it heads NE into the Eastern Gulf - but it is in the far long-range and timeframe is pushing out, not really believable.

How the run ends 2 weeks from now:

WeatherEmporer - I agree if this low can stay offshore the Yucatan, it could even be stronger.

#1559 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 6:07 pm

Sooooo basically the Gfs went from consistently showing a florida hit on 20/21 october to now drifting N or NE in the EGOM on the 26th october? Yeah....ok

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#1560 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 6:22 pm

GFS is leaning to a EPAC system near CentralAmerica at last two runs but doesn't last much because of land interaction.