Tropical Wave/ Trough axis from E. Caribbean to 26N 60W

[northjaxpro]

I have been watching this feature the past couple of days and it seems today the convection has become a bit more concentrated this morning. This wave is moving west at about 15 kts currently. This wave is in an area just south of where Joaquin had developed just within the past 2 weeks. However, as Joaquin made the very rare transition from ULL to become a deadly major tropical cyclone, this current wave looks to not have that type of transition to go through should it attempt to organize.

This wave appears to have a very good moisture envelope and if convection can maintain as the wave moves west, this may be a feature to monitor in the short to medium forecast period. There is no model support for this feature that I can decipher currently, but remember things can change rapidly out there, and I think that this potentially may get support as time progresses.. Shear looks to be moderate in the 20 kts plus range in that region, but compared to how it has been for most of this season down there, those levels are not decapitating bad at the moment. I think this wave may have a very small chance if shear levels hold where there are at the moment. Big IF about that however.

I feel it is an interesting feature at the moment and worth monitoring.

[HurricaneEric21]

Was also keeping an eye on this system too, but do any of these models look to develop it?

Also: Is it me or was that area Invest 91L?

[wxman57]

That's former Invest 91L. It's moisture is already being drawn northward ahead of a sharp trof. Development chances 0.001%.

[northjaxpro]

Actually, the wave is along a trough axis which extends southward. The southern extention of the axis includes the old energy of ex-91L. Also, it is possible that we may see a split of the trough axis occuring soon, with the northern extent being pulled north and the southern extent moving west into the Caribbean. However, there is an large upper level trough from the SW Atlantic south into the central Caribbean currently which will keep any development chances virtually nil in the short term.

[wxman57]

You can follow 91L here very well. Starts out near 15.5N/43W. It's merging with the upper trof now, which is why development chances are near zero.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[northjaxpro]

You can follow 91L here very well. Starts out near 15.5N/43W. It's merging with the upper trof now, which is why development chances are near zero.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

Yeah, after further analysis as the day has progressed, I agree wxman57. The large upper trough will cap any development chances down into the Caribbean, at least for the next week at least. The Caribbean is just a death zone this season. Oh well, just wanted to stoke some conversation on a slow day on the forums .

[Sanibel]

It looked like it might hit the same favorability as Joaquin but you can see shear whipping right in front of it.



Hints of curvature.