2015 Global model runs discussion

BobHarlem · #1321 Postby **BobHarlem** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:51 am

FIM also showing significant development in the West Carib https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQuOOfWWIAAXKju.jpg on 10/20

#1322 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:25 am

BobHarlem wrote:FIM also showing significant development in the West Carib https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQuOOfWWIAAXKju.jpg on 10/20

That is yesterday's FIM, below is the 00Z run from last night:

HURRICANELONNY · #1323 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:38 am

Good read about the models and why the Euro beat GFS on Joaquin.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=3148

#1324 Postby **psyclone** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:42 am

One thing I like to look at for long range tropical potential is the CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. as of now the 6-10 shows below normal precip for fl and the 8-14 day shows normal. I'd be much more interested if either of those showed above normal readings but will certainly be watching subsequent updates.

#1325 Postby **WPBWeather** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:17 am

I watch those also. Good source for leading indicators.

#1326 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:53 am

12Z GFS running and is bringing in the timeframe on development

Development takes place in the NW Caribbean where the storm moves NE and in the very long-range, it passes Southern Florida just to the SE as it intensifies.

207 hours below in the NW Caribbean:

#1327 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:01 pm

300 hours battering the Bahamas - note this is way out in the long-range:

PTrackerLA · #1328 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:06 pm

I don't know much about experimental NASA GEOS-5 model but here's what the 00z run showed at 240 hours:

#1329 Postby **TheProfessor** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:23 pm

Last 2 GFS Runs has a way out to sea and has the potential storm missing Florida to the south.

#1330 Postby **Alyono** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:27 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Last 2 GFS Runs has a way out to sea and has the potential storm missing Florida to the south.

out to sea? What run are you looking at. It smashes half of the Caribbean and the Bahamas. We don't call those fish storms here

#1331 Postby **TheProfessor** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:31 pm

Alyono wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Last 2 GFS Runs has a way out to sea and has the potential storm missing Florida to the south.

out to sea? What run are you looking at. It smashes half of the Caribbean and the Bahamas. We don't call those fish storms here

I didn't call it a fish storm, I said out to sea, I didn't think out to sea meant no land interaction, if it does then sorry.

#1332 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:41 pm

12z Canadian has low pressure in the extreme SW Caribbean nearly stationary almost trying to move into the Epac near the end of its run at 240hours. Waiting for the Euro to start

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

#1333 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:54 pm

Nothing from the NAVGEM yet. The 12Z Euro should be interesting. I have a feeling it will show something more than just a weak low, but let's see.

#1334 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:56 pm

12Z GFS Ensembles continue to bullish and are bringing in the timeframe. Like the operational, most of them are south of Florida on this run but it's all in the long range. That is about as much support as you will get for development from the long-range GEFS:

4 Ensembles bring it to southern Florida

blp · #1335 Postby **blp** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:12 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:12z Canadian has low pressure in the extreme SW Caribbean nearly stationary almost trying to move into the Epac near the end of its run at 240hours. Waiting for the Euro to start

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

The CMC has been showing good vorticity last several runs but it has kept it over land and further South. It does not feel the trough as much as on the GFS. If it felt the trough and gets over water I have not doubt it would spin it up more.

Also, the CMC spins up the EPAC system which draws energy away.

I think the takeaway right now with the models is that the MJO is going to impart good upward motion in the region and that the shear might be favorable.

#1336 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:54 pm

12z Euro is similar to the Canadian. Pushes a weak low into the Epac. Too much land interaction to allow anything to get going.

We have seen this before. The Gfs stands alone run after run after run only to end up being wrong. Unless other models joing the Gfs, its hard to take it seriously. Lets see what the models show tomorrow.

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

#1337 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:56 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:12z Euro is similar to the Canadian. Pushes a weak low into the Epac. Too much land interaction to allow anything to get going.

We have seen this before. The Gfs stands alone run after run after run only to end up being wrong. Unless other models joing the Gfs, its hard to take it seriously. Lets see what the models show tomorrow.

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

Actually the 12Z Euro has a broad low over the Yucatan. If you look at that pattern, had it developed this area over Western Caribbean like the GFS it probably would get pulled N then NE similar to the GFS.

#1338 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:34 pm

Well folks, we have some CMC Ensembles on board for the Western Caribbean system on the 12Z run. They develop the system over the NW Caribbean and some of them move it NNE over Cuba and South Florida. This is the first run the CMC ensembles are showing something.

#1339 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:35 pm

Gator can u post the ensembles?

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

#1340 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:36 pm

CMC Ensembles below: