Texas Fall-2015

[Brent]

I'm curious why he keeps saying El Nino impacts usually wait til winter... looks to me like October during el ninos is always cooler/wetter than normal.

But seriously... the latest 100 degree reading in DFW is October 3rd... and we've lost over an hour and a half of daylight since we last hit 100... hard to fathom hitting it.

[gboudx]

:uarrow:
I just can't see upper 90s with the lower sun angle this time of year. Then again, this has been a weird year.

Ntxw posted earlier the high for 10/7/14 was 98. So it's happened. I hope he's wrong because to paraphrase Hank Hill, "that's just not right".

[Ntxw]

I'm curious why he keeps saying El Nino impacts usually wait til winter... looks to me like October during el ninos is always cooler/wetter than normal.

ENSO impacts are greatest into the winter months through Spring. This spring's copious rains, arguably, is a result of the El Nino that ensued last winter. Wetter than normal began in December into Feb first then extended to May (gave us a couple of snowfalls in between). The reason is because ENSO gets started early summer into fall and mature through winter. That is why it is called El Nino southern Oscillation (ENSO) for the Christ Child, or greatest effects around Christmas season.

That doesn't mean indirect impacts aren't felt though, you're right typically it should be cooler and wetter than normal in Oct. For a couple of reasons, October tends to see most EPAC recurving hurricanes into Mexico thus our second wet season. El Nino's increase the likeliness of hurricanes forming there, it hasn't this month to date.

[Brent]

I'm curious why he keeps saying El Nino impacts usually wait til winter... looks to me like October during el ninos is always cooler/wetter than normal.

ENSO impacts are greatest into the winter months through Spring. This spring's copious rains, arguably, is a result of the El Nino that ensued last winter. Wetter than normal began in December into Feb first then extended to May (gave us a couple of snowfalls in between). The reason is because ENSO gets started early summer into fall and mature through winter. That is why it is called El Nino southern Oscillation (ENSO) for the Christ Child, or greatest effects around Christmas season.

That doesn't mean indirect impacts aren't felt though, you're right typically it should be cooler and wetter than normal in Oct. For a couple of reasons, October tends to see most EPAC recurving hurricanes into Mexico thus our second wet season. El Nino's increase the likeliness of hurricanes forming there, it hasn't this month to date.

What is up with the EPAC anyway? I expected a lot more activity than it has seen.

[Ntxw]

What is up with the EPAC anyway? I expected a lot more activity than it has seen.

I'm not certain. My guess would be that the Caribbean shear this year has zapped waves from crossing over to the EPAC. I'm not surprised there hasn't been Caribbean canes but assumed weak waves would at least cross it to become systems south of MX. Hasn't happened. It's been a top 3 season in the EPAC but centered over the central Pacific near Hawaii. Dying pouches and invests off Africa often become canes once crossing central America to the EPAC

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose thinks late October the Summer pattern will break.


Chance for Rain Decreasing Late Week. Summer-Like Weather Returning.
Tuesday, October 6, 2015 5:55 PM
​
It seems our summer pattern just doesn't want to quit. Despite this being the first week, the cool air just hasn't been able to make it into Texas. At the same time, the weather pattern continues to be very dry, with no storm systems making into the area. A good part of our unusual weather can be traced to the very strong El Nino. So far, we've seen just the opposite kind of weather we typically associate with El Ninos here in Texas. The latest long-range outlooks indicate things may not be changing anytime real soon. From what I'm seeing, it may now be late October before we finally see the summer pattern finally break down. I'll pass along more details on this over the next couple of weeks.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Brent]

Bob Rose thinks late October the Summer pattern will break.


Chance for Rain Decreasing Late Week. Summer-Like Weather Returning.
Tuesday, October 6, 2015 5:55 PM
​
It seems our summer pattern just doesn't want to quit. Despite this being the first week, the cool air just hasn't been able to make it into Texas. At the same time, the weather pattern continues to be very dry, with no storm systems making into the area. A good part of our unusual weather can be traced to the very strong El Nino. So far, we've seen just the opposite kind of weather we typically associate with El Ninos here in Texas. The latest long-range outlooks indicate things may not be changing anytime real soon. From what I'm seeing, it may now be late October before we finally see the summer pattern finally break down. I'll pass along more details on this over the next couple of weeks.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

How many months in a row is this gonna be above normal temps if we don't get a drastic shift after mid month?

[weatherdude1108]

I understand Indian Summers, but I never thought I would be saying we are in the dog days of Summer/Summer doldrums...in OCTOBER.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THAT BEGINS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME WEAK AND SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING IN TERMS OF THE SURFACE FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. HIGHEST PWAT VALUES AS COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WOULD FAVOR THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AREA NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM DAYTIME THURSDAY THROUGH
DAYTIME FRIDAY. MODEL RUN TOTALS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECM/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ISOLATED
4-5 INCH TOTALS OUT WEST...WHILE EASTERN COUNTIES COULD BE LOOKING
AT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR PERHAPS NO RAIN AT ALL. BY LATE
FRIDAY...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY ENHANCING POPS
FARTHER EAST.

CONSENSUS FORECASTS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOW MUCH
DECREASED POPS OVER FORECASTS FROM A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THE COLD FRONT COULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH
MODEL RUNS GOING FORWARD. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS FORECASTS BY MONDAY
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER RIDGE OVER TX...WEDGED BETWEEN
THE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE RETROGRADING
UPPER LOW TO THE SW...WILL STRENGTHEN AND APPLY NEAR WIDESPREAD 90
PLUS DEGREE DAYS MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

[CaptinCrunch]

I read Steve McCauley's post last night on FB, and then during the 10 o'clock news 8 update Pete made the comment that summer was coming back for a few days but not to worry about a warmer than average winter, he's still on board with this winter ending up colder and wetter than normal and snow and ice isn't out of his forecast.

It sucks when you decorate for Fall and the house is looking all festive with the pumpkin spice smell in the air and you still have to run the AC because it's still upper 80's to mid 90's out.

I'm not going to sweat it (HAHA) we really won't know what winter will bring us till December anyway.

[Brent]

Well the GFS has backed off a bit next week... still 97 on Monday, but starts dropping after that back to the 80s Wed/Thu, and weatherbug has consistently shown a drop in temps after peaking Sun/Mon/Tue so perhaps the extreme heat anyway will be short-lived. No sign of rain however.

[TheProfessor]

That would mean the heat would leave just before i arrive back home on Thursday.

[Brent]

:uarrow: That would mean the heat would leave just before i arrive back home on Thursday.

Of course the 0z GFS had mid 90s all the way through til next weekend(and I'm assuming other models from FWD's morning AFD)... so we'll see.

I just can't envision mid 90s all week though... it's not September anymore.

[Ntxw]

Flashbacks of wxman57 taunting us midwinter of mid 90s in Jan and Feb...1986..1996..and many others....the horrors

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
331 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOME RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO OUR WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED
STARTING TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAIN TO PARTS OF WEST
TEXAS BUT UNFORTUNATELY ITS POSITION WELL WEST OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL KEEP THE BEST RAIN WEST OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENING...SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PART OF THE
REGION TOMORROW. SHORT-TERM...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP A 20 POP ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM...GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG...AND EXPECT MOST OF
ANY ACTIVITY TOMORROW WILL BE SHOWERS BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

THE CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN ON THE LOWER END THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH WITH THE HELP OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. AGAIN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR SUGGESTING SHOWERS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE TYPE
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAINFALL TOTALS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR ANY
LOCATION THAT RECEIVES RAIN. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE WARM TEMPERATURES WE ARE EXPERIENCING TODAY...BUT
THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE BREAK
FROM THE NEAR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK IN WEST OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE JUST WEST OF
THE REGION...A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS SECOND FRONT EITHER.

JLDUNN

Rinse and Repeat, nothing to see here folks, move along move along......

[wxman57]

Flashbacks of wxman57 taunting us midwinter of mid 90s in Jan and Feb...1986..1996..and many others....the horrors

Good point, this coming Jan/Feb will be another "6" winter.

[Ntxw]

This is why it's going to get hot



It's like the antithesis of Nuri, instead of the Aleutians you have a low pressure bomb (hurricane OHO) in the gulf of Alaska. Which coincidentally we can blame OHO's formation to the Nino with the latest westerly wind burst. Nino > Warm pool

[Brent]

The 18z gfs says fall is cancelled

Can we move back to the summer thread?

[Ntxw]

On the bright side, as an optimistic post, the severely -AO (that is doing nothing for us) is causing an explosion of snow cover/advance in the mid and high latitudes. The AO is the key to saving us from the mild Decembers El Nino likes to do. 1963 and 2009 had severely negative AO's thus cold Decembers against the ENSO climo

[TheProfessor]

I'm loving these NASA maps, idk how accurate they are though.


upload images


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[Brent]

Weatherbug continues to have temps dropping to the mid and upper 70s by next Saturday... wherever that is coming from.

Unfortunately it has trended warmer Tue/Wed.