2015 Global model runs discussion

#1301 Postby **Alyono** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:07 am

Kingarabian wrote:00z and 06z GFS hinting @ Iniki 2.0 in the medium range. EPAC crosser into the CPAC where it develops well south west of the islands and Hawaii landfalls.

WOLF WOLF

#1302 Postby **LarryWx** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:10 am

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:As we all know this is the Time of Year to look at the western Caribbean. Too early in the Game to call in my opinion. Watch and wait

Agreed. At 0Z, neither the Euro nor the CMC ens had nearly as much support for a W. Caribbean TC moving north as have the last few GEFS. So, of the three most major mods that go out that far, the GFS still looks to be mainly on its own for a clearcut threat to the US. Also, the GEFS parallel at 0Z wasn't nearly as enthused as the reg GEFS.

#1303 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:46 pm

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:00z and 06z GFS hinting @ Iniki 2.0 in the medium range. EPAC crosser into the CPAC where it develops well south west of the islands and Hawaii landfalls.

WOLF WOLF

I'm just the messenger. 12z GFS has it but more so in the long range.

#1304 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:28 pm

In regards to the WC development shown in the Gfs, none of the other models show anything in the WC on the 12z runs. Its only the Gfs now

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#1305 Postby **Alyono** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:59 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
I'm just the messenger. 12z GFS has it but more so in the long range.

MU is the one crying wold

#1306 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:18 pm

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
I'm just the messenger. 12z GFS has it but more so in the long range.

MU is the one crying wold

18z now has it within 5 days. I agree though. I pray it's just crying wolf and nothing materializes. Needs more model support, thankfully.

HURRICANELONNY · #1307 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:39 pm

Once again. Every year. GFS= Get Florida Soon. :roll:

#1308 Postby **SFLcane** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 6:08 pm

Seems to favoring development in the epac now. Crazy model :spam:

#1309 Postby **LarryWx** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:54 pm

The chances that MU has been crying "wolf, wolf" regarding a threat to FL are increasing though it is still too early too know obviously. The good news is that IF this turns out to be crying wolf that it shouldn't be nearly the colossal bust that happened one year ago in the same region. In the meantime, it is certainly too early to make a definitive call on this. On the one hand, climo says be wary. OTOH, the GFS is known as "Give FL Something" and one year ago's huge bust among others cannot be forgotten.
The 18Z GEFS has a good number of members threatening S FL.

#1310 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:11 pm

I agree Larry, it is too early to say what, if anything, is going to happen in the Western Caribbean. The past couple of GFS runs have shown more of a broad and weaker area of low pressure if you compare them to the 00Z and 06Z runs which both showed hurricanes. On the other hand, the GEFS continues to show many ensemble members developing something in the Caribbean. Those that follow the FIM model will know that the 12Z continues to show a cyclone in the NW Caribbean in the long-range. The ECMWF nor CMC show much of anything down in the Western Caribbean even at the end of their runs at 240 hours. One thing that could be a possibility is that moisture/convection increases down there as early as late this weekend and into early next week in response to a Kelvin wave or wet MJO pulse (see graphic below). Then we will have to see if anything organizes or not.

blp · #1311 Postby **blp** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:12 pm

Here is the FIM fantasy run. Impressive but not a reliable model.

#1312 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:07 am

00z Gfs is back with a TS hitting south florida around 10/19. Still waiting for the Canadian model to finish

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#1313 Postby **LarryWx** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:06 am

1) The 0Z GEFS is still another GEFS run with a good # of members with support for a W Caribbean TC to possibly threaten especially S FL.

2) More significantly and though weak, the 0Z Euro is the first op run to introduce a W Caribbean closed surface low. Interesting. Unlike the GFS' 16 days, the only 10 day Euro doesn't go far out enough to be able to tell what happens with it.
I'm especially going to be more interested in future Euro runs with this development.

caneman · #1314 Postby **caneman** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:50 am

Why is that? The euros strong suit isnt.genesis, at leat that is my understanding. I could be wrong. The GFS is stronger in that area but I'll take it more seriously with model consensous.

#1315 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 3:54 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:00z Gfs is back with a TS hitting south florida around 10/19. Still waiting for the Canadian model to finish

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well the gfs would have climatology on its side but two huge negative factors...its 12 days out and its the gfs

caneman · #1316 Postby **caneman** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 6:14 am

Well, im not buying any model until about 3-5 days out, someone wake me when then happens. lol. All in all, this season far outpaced my expectations with El Nino.

blp · #1317 Postby **blp** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:16 am

Comparing the models from yesterday to today looking at the 850 vorticity I do see a shift by the Euro and CMC to move the vorticity more closer toward the GFS solution. The big difference still is that the Euro and CMC show major land interaction with Central America while the GFS manages to keep most of the voriticy offshore in the Southern Carribbean. The MJO is forecast to be favorable in that region by Euro and GFS with the GFS being stronger. I think the GFS might be too strong because it is overhyping the MJO and is showing limited land interaction. If anything develops it will probably stay weak and move to the NE with the next front. Below is the latest Euro showing vorticity in the SW Carribbean.

#1318 Postby **LarryWx** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:31 am

caneman wrote:Why is that? The euros strong suit isnt.genesis, at leat that is my understanding. I could be wrong. The GFS is stronger in that area but I'll take it more seriously with model consensous.

The GFS has had an awful W. Caribbean phantom genesis problem at times, including one year ago. Having the Euro solidly on its side (it is nowhere near that yet as it just had one run with some support) would at least tell me there's a better chance it isn't a phantom.
The 6Z GFS actually has two lows with the second one much stronger and just missing S FL.

Weatherwatcher98 · #1319 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:35 am

Depends on how far the Front digs and what if anything is there to be picked up.

#1320 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:01 am

The Euro develops a low in the western Caribbean at day 10 as well. It's significant that wind shear across the Caribbean has been decreasing in recent weeks. The environment there might be favorable for a late-season storm to develop. If it did develop, then it would have to track NNE or NE due to strong SW winds aloft across the Gulf. GFS has a hurricane passing near S. Florida 4 days before the 10 year anniversary of Wilma. Definitely something to keep an eye on but I'm not inclined to believe it yet.