2015 Global model runs discussion

#1241 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 04, 2015 10:24 am

The long-range GFS is showing a system forming in the SW Caribbean that moves NW into the NW Caribbean. Last time the GFS showed something in the long-range, an area of low pressure did form (99L). This is the time of year we need to watch the Western Caribbean:

#1242 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:46 pm

The 12Z GFS Ensembles have really jumped on board on the SW Caribbean system, with some ensembles showing the area starting to form as early as hour 252 as it slowly moves north through the end of the run. Image below in the long-range. This is Oct 19th below, a climatology favored scenario for October.

Actually the last several runs of the GEFS shows this SW Caribbean system, with the timeframe coming in....

Here is how the run ends with the low moving slowly NNW:

#1243 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 04, 2015 6:10 pm

18Z GFS back to showing the SW Caribbean system in the long-range following its ensembles members. The GFS also develops an EPAC system. The SW Caribbean system moves slowly NW into the NW Caribbean and intensifies while the EPAC system moves W to WNW just south of the coast of Mexico where it deepens temporarily then gradually weakens.

Development commences right around 252 hours for the Caribbean system. Here is how the GFS ends:

#1244 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 04, 2015 8:27 pm

The 18Z GEFS and GEFS parallel continue to show lowering pressures across the SW Caribbean with many several ensemble members showing some kind of development in the long range.

#1245 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:12 am

Gator et al,
The 0Z GFS also has it with it forming into a TC in the NW Caribbean on 10/16. It moves little til 10/20, when it moves toward central Cuba as a stronger TC at 997 mb.
I look at this as mainly for entertainment this far out in time, especially due to past false alarms there by this model though, as Gator noted, this has been on several GFS runs with some ens support. Because this area is most conducive for genesis per climo during ~10/1-20 and has been untouched by a TC this season, it is quite believable, regardless.

#1246 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 6:46 am

06Z GFS continues to show the WCAR storm with timeframe coming in. Looks like we start seeing the beginning of some development as early as 210 hours. The storm heads NW into the NW Caribbean where it strengthens and then ejects to the northeast through Cuba, the FL Straits, and just east of Southern Florida. If this develops, this would be a classic October storm.

Hurricaneman · #1247 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 8:49 am

I'll be interested if other models show development but if shear remains low in that region anything could happen from a weak 1991 Fabian like system to a Mitch or Wilma and anything in between

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#1248 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:20 am

Higher rez Euro, from Weatherbell, has nothing except what appears to be a wave moving through late in the run.

#1249 Postby **psyclone** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:29 am

strong el ninos often kill off the cane season early so it will be a challenge to get something going down there this year. More than ever, I'm in a "believe it when I see it" mode.

#1250 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:30 am

WOLF WOLF

#1251 Postby **WPBWeather** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:35 am

psyclone wrote:strong el ninos often kill off the cane season early so it will be a challenge to get something going down there this year. More than ever, I'm in a "believe it when I see it" mode.

Why "more than ever"? We just finished with a major cane that many said would never appear.

#1252 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:49 am

^I think the 3 posts above this sum up valid varying positions to take on this. No matter what, this is still way out in the very hard to forecast fantasyland and is so far clearly only on MU though the UK doesn't go out nearly that far. Regardless, climo of a whopping 35 documented geneses during 10/11-20 in just that fairly small area over 159 years is enough to make it at least far from shocking.

PTrackerLA · #1253 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:40 am

Interesting feature to monitor but since it's super long range we have a while to watch this. As in, "check back in a week" long time to watch :lol:

.

#1254 Postby **psyclone** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:58 am

WPBWeather wrote:
psyclone wrote:strong el ninos often kill off the cane season early so it will be a challenge to get something going down there this year. More than ever, I'm in a "believe it when I see it" mode.

Why "more than ever"? We just finished with a major cane that many said would never appear.

Because we've had a bucket load of late season false alarms down there in recent years... during non el nino years that should result in more hospitable conditions yet we still didn't have much. It's an even tougher hill to climb in an el nino year. As for the season as a whole, it has exceeded my expectations by a significant margin, even before Joaquin, which was an amazing event for sure. Nevertheless, I will remain skeptical of long range development progs in the western Caribbean...but not completely ignore them...as I always like to say "low risk does not = no risk."

#1255 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:43 am

Out through 10 days, the 12Z GFS has yet again a broad area of low pressure forming in the SW Caribbean starting around hour 180 or so, so it is bringing the timeframe in each run. Let's see what it does with it the remainder of the run.

The fact it is bringing the timeframe in each run has my interest as this is exactly what it did for 99L about 1 1/2 weeks ago. It picked up on that way in advance before any other model.

#1256 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:56 am

gator et al,
12Z GFS: 992 mb TC hit on S FL 10/18-9.

#1257 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:56 am

The 12Z GFS shows landfall in South Florida at 336 hours, 995 MB on the non-high res model. Looks to be a large system as well. It's way out there in the long-range but the broad low that forms this system starts forming much sooner, than that, in around 8-10 days from now down in the SW Caribbean.

#1258 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:08 pm

12Z GFS qpf 10/16-21: 6-8" most of E coast FL-MD

#1259 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:12 pm

The 12Z GFS just may be on to something. It looks like it is sending the disturbed area currently SW of the Cape Verde islands (see loop below, far bottom-right of image) all the way west through the Caribbean and into the SW Caribbean where genesis starts to take place. The shear has dropped off considerably in the Western Caribbean (see second image).

The area has very good spin looking at this loop. By the way the GEM model is also picking up on this area SW of the Cape Verde islands and shows a low forming in the West-Central Caribbean and heading W by the end of the run.

#1260 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:17 pm

Gator, what kind of intensity would a 992-995 cyclone have? TS or Cat1?

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