Texas Fall-2015

[weatherdude1108]

It's coming, it hasn't been consistent on exact amounts but it's been all over a big rain setup at the middle/end of next week

[weatherdude1108]

Are yall ready? #elnino

YES YES YES!!!

[Brent]

More model stuff on the 18z GFS... the meteogram is just a few hundredths short of 2" between Thursday and Saturday at DFW, oh... and HIGHS in the low 70s next weekend.

[Ntxw]

I updated the points on the first page as DFW officially went below 59F today 10/2.

Ntxw-26

weatherdude1108-29

Tireman4-44

Ellsey-30

Veedub63-38

TeamPlayersBlue-30

TheProfessor-39

ravyrn-19 <-Leader


Lowest points wins, KAUS has not yet officially hit 59F

[Ntxw]

CFSv2 is showing a widespread area of 4-5+ inches of total rainfall for the next month or so in the eastern half of the state. Good signs

[weatherdude1108]

CFSv2 is showing a widespread area of 4-5+ inches of total rainfall for the next month or so in the eastern half of the state. Good signs

YAY AGAIN!

[Brent]

Pretty consistent GFS today, most of it falls Thu/Fri:

[ravyrn]

I updated the points on the first page as DFW officially went below 59F today 10/2.

Ntxw-26

weatherdude1108-29

Tireman4-44

Ellsey-30

Veedub63-38

TeamPlayersBlue-30

TheProfessor-39

ravyrn-19 <-Leader


Lowest points wins, KAUS has not yet officially hit 59F

If KAUS hits 59F tonight, you'll win. There's no finer gentleman to lose to! But if it doesnt

[texas1836]

A fine 52' morning in McKinney. Had the windows open all night and it feels GREAT!!! Now....I want my 24" of snow. I figure, this season will be the best chance for that to happen.

[weatherdude1108]

It is 55 at my house at 7:45am. Camp Mabry is at 60 as of 6:51 am reading.

Edit: 7:51am 59 degrees at Mabry.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... g_T9yMo7qC

[Ralph's Weather]

51 yesterday and 46 this morning here. Headed into the mid to upper 70s perfect weather.

[JDawg512]

57 degrees currently at my house as well as several other spots on the southside. Only 3.5 miles from downtown. Both Mabry and the airport made it to 59 or below (as in the case of the airport).

[Ntxw]

Indeed KAUS achieved below 59F. That ends the contest with a close race between myself and ravyrn, great job guys! Was a test run, maybe we can do a first freeze for winter and maybe include a prize this time (if permissible)

In order of finish (points on the first page)

Ntxw
ravyrn
weatherdude1108
Ellsey
TheProfessor
TeamPlayersBlue (tied with veedub)
Veedub63 (tied with TPB)
Tireman4


In the end it was KAUS that vaulted me ahead of ravyrn.

[Ntxw]

Code: Select all

SOI values for 03 Oct 2015
Average for last 30 days   -19.93
Average for last 90 days   -16.70
Daily contribution to SOI calculation   -49.77

Monster -SOI drop. Curious to see what it will do the weather in the coming weeks! When you get -40s/-50s/-60s you're looking at historical levels

Just for interests here was the SOI during the period of DFW snowmaggeddon...-76!!! That was the epitome of a true subtropical jet originating from the El Nino

Code: Select all

2010  33 1001.71 1005.80  -40.98
2010  34 1000.54 1006.80  -51.25
2010  35  997.85 1009.35  -76.05
2010  36 1002.41 1009.95  -57.31
2010  37 1005.43 1009.80  -42.31
2010  38 1006.86 1010.20  -37.43
2010  39 1008.64 1009.50  -25.70

[gpsnowman]

Nice contest folks. I withheld participation due to major house repairs to put my house on the market. Been insanely busy. Now on to the first freeze, I might get in on this one. Initial thoughts have me thinking around Thanksgiving but the el nino cloud cover could bump that up a bit. Who knows, we shall see. I am ready either way.

[Ellsey]

Indeed KAUS achieved below 59F. That ends the contest with a close race between myself and ravyrn, great job guys! Was a test run, maybe we can do a first freeze for winter and maybe include a prize this time (if permissible)

In order of finish (points on the first page)

Ntxw
ravyrn
weatherdude1108
Ellsey
TheProfessor
TeamPlayersBlue (tied with veedub)
Veedub63 (tied with TPB)
Tireman4


In the end it was KAUS that vaulted me ahead of ravyrn.

Yaaaaaaaasssssss! Just off the medal podium!

That was fun though. I'm up for a first freeze guessing game (because that's what it is for me).

[texas1836]

I'm guessing the first frost in late October. Do we have to be specific?

[ravyrn]

Indeed KAUS achieved below 59F. That ends the contest with a close race between myself and ravyrn, great job guys! Was a test run, maybe we can do a first freeze for winter and maybe include a prize this time (if permissible)

In order of finish (points on the first page)

Ntxw
ravyrn
weatherdude1108
Ellsey
TheProfessor
TeamPlayersBlue (tied with veedub)
Veedub63 (tied with TPB)
Tireman4


In the end it was KAUS that vaulted me ahead of ravyrn.

Maybe I'll get first place next year I almost got ya, KAUS barely hit 59! Congratulations! How did you choose your dates? I picked my dates by referencing data from the Fall of 1997 and picked the dates of first 59 or less temp reading from there.

[Ntxw]

Maybe I'll get first place next year I almost got ya, KAUS barely hit 59! Congratulations! How did you choose your dates? I picked my dates by referencing data from the Fall of 1997 and picked the dates of first 59 or less temp reading from there.

I'll start a first 32F for all three stations in the winter thread next weekend perhaps. Time to dig up information about freezes! I'm hoping more participation for that one .

I didn't do anything special for the guesses, I just looked at Euro weeklies and picked out periods that looked anomalously cool. Applied some Pseudo science aka gut feeling

[Brent]

0z model stuff

GFS:



CMC: