ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030315
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 47 20151003
030630 2459N 07440W 6961 03001 9838 +116 +103 018050 051 044 003 00
030700 2501N 07441W 6960 03004 9848 +111 +101 016050 051 042 002 00
030730 2502N 07442W 6963 03004 9851 +114 +094 019049 050 044 001 00
030800 2503N 07443W 6962 03011 9859 +111 +096 016047 048 043 002 00
030830 2504N 07445W 6961 03017 9860 +115 +086 016047 047 042 002 00
030900 2505N 07446W 6961 03019 9854 +124 +073 019047 047 041 002 00
030930 2506N 07447W 6965 03019 9859 +125 +072 019046 046 041 001 00
031000 2507N 07448W 6961 03026 9859 +128 +073 018045 046 042 000 00
031030 2508N 07449W 6961 03031 9869 +121 +078 019045 045 040 001 00
031100 2509N 07451W 6963 03030 9870 +124 +072 021045 046 039 001 00
031130 2511N 07452W 6961 03036 9871 +126 +069 021045 045 039 001 00
031200 2512N 07453W 6959 03040 9869 +131 +064 022043 045 039 001 00
031230 2513N 07454W 6962 03040 9868 +134 +061 021041 043 039 001 00
031300 2514N 07456W 6961 03043 9880 +127 +062 019040 040 039 001 00
031330 2515N 07457W 6961 03045 9883 +126 +062 016039 040 037 002 00
031400 2516N 07458W 6961 03047 9880 +130 +063 018038 038 036 002 00
031430 2517N 07459W 6961 03050 9881 +130 +063 016036 038 037 001 00
031500 2518N 07501W 6961 03052 9884 +130 +062 017036 037 036 001 00
031530 2520N 07502W 6961 03052 9884 +131 +061 014034 035 037 001 00
031600 2521N 07503W 6962 03052 9887 +130 +063 014032 033 036 000 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

UZNT13 KNHC 030310
XXAA 53037 99243 70739 08043 99953 25405 ///// 00924 ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85/// ///// ///// 70/// 14802 24594 88999 77999
31313 09608 80246
61616 AF305 1211A JOAQUIN OB 17
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2438N07377W 0251 LST WND 015 AEV 07775 REL
2427N07388W 024637 =
XXBB 53038 99243 70739 08043 00953 25405 11944 24806 22850 /////
33848 20605 44703 15604 55696 13800
21212 00953 ///// 11952 18122 22696 24587
31313 09608 80246
61616 AF305 1211A JOAQUIN OB 17
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2438N07377W 0251 LST WND 015 AEV 07775 REL
2427N07388W 024637 =



Surface of 953mb where wind was not available.

952mb: 122 knots (140 mph)

This would be a momentary gust.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030325
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 48 20151003
031630 2522N 07504W 6962 03052 9887 +130 +061 014031 032 036 001 03
031700 2523N 07506W 6963 03053 9894 +126 +062 007032 034 036 001 00
031730 2524N 07507W 6961 03057 9900 +122 +065 004031 033 035 002 00
031800 2525N 07508W 6965 03053 9898 +125 +058 005032 033 034 001 00
031830 2526N 07509W 6961 03060 9895 +129 +063 358032 033 034 002 00
031900 2528N 07511W 6961 03059 9896 +127 +076 000031 032 035 001 00
031930 2529N 07512W 6961 03059 9896 +125 +085 000032 032 035 001 03
032000 2530N 07513W 6964 03057 9897 +127 +083 358032 033 034 001 00
032030 2531N 07514W 6959 03064 9900 +125 +080 000033 034 034 002 00
032100 2532N 07516W 6963 03062 9902 +124 +085 360033 034 034 002 00
032130 2533N 07517W 6960 03065 9902 +126 +079 360032 032 035 002 00
032200 2534N 07518W 6963 03063 9905 +124 +086 004032 034 033 002 00
032230 2535N 07519W 6961 03068 9913 +118 +087 006033 035 033 001 00
032300 2536N 07521W 6962 03065 9911 +121 +084 004037 037 032 001 00
032330 2538N 07522W 6961 03069 9914 +119 +082 005037 037 031 001 03
032400 2539N 07523W 6962 03068 9910 +123 +075 007036 036 031 001 00
032430 2540N 07524W 6960 03070 9909 +125 +070 001033 035 030 001 00
032500 2541N 07525W 6962 03069 9910 +125 +066 001029 032 031 001 00
032530 2542N 07527W 6961 03072 9908 +128 +061 358030 030 029 000 00
032600 2543N 07528W 6962 03068 9901 +133 +055 356029 030 026 001 00
$$
;

[bahamaswx]

A handful of islands spent several hours in the eyewall while he was essentially stalled out. Reports of complete devastation are starting to trickle out.

[ozonepete]

This is getting torn in two different directions now. The U.S. 500 mb trough is steering, i.e. pulling, the western half of Joaquin to the northwest while the lower part of the ULL in the western Atlantic is steering, i.e.pulling, the eastern half of Joaquin towards the southeast. So this hurricane is getting seriously stretched from NW to SE. This was actually forecast by both the GFS and Euro and was probably why they differed. The Euro insisted the Atlantic ULL would win out and the GFS insisted the U.S. 500 mb trough would win out. Maybe the actual result will be that both upper lows will stretch this out like taffy and weaken it a lot more than either model thought it would. If that happens then neither model will have gotten the strength right after it started to move northward. It sure doesn't look very healthy right now.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

121 knots was previously the highest sonde surface wind to date for any mission.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030335
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 49 20151003
032630 2544N 07529W 6962 03068 9900 +134 +055 357030 032 024 001 03
032700 2544N 07531W 6958 03074 9903 +131 +061 354034 034 /// /// 03
032730 2542N 07531W 6962 03070 9901 +136 +049 347033 034 024 001 03
032800 2540N 07531W 6961 03071 9904 +134 +053 349033 034 026 001 00
032830 2538N 07531W 6961 03073 9904 +134 +054 352033 034 025 001 00
032900 2536N 07530W 6962 03071 9908 +130 +058 355035 036 025 001 00
032930 2534N 07530W 6962 03070 9911 +126 +070 001036 037 025 002 00
033000 2532N 07530W 6962 03070 9908 +128 +074 004037 038 029 002 03
033030 2530N 07530W 6961 03070 9909 +126 +078 006039 040 027 002 00
033100 2528N 07530W 6962 03068 9909 +125 +074 004040 040 025 002 00
033130 2525N 07530W 6961 03070 9907 +128 +061 003040 041 027 000 03
033200 2523N 07530W 6962 03068 9904 +130 +064 002039 040 028 001 00
033230 2521N 07530W 6959 03070 9900 +133 +057 001040 040 028 000 00
033300 2519N 07530W 6963 03065 9902 +131 +056 003040 040 028 001 00
033330 2517N 07530W 6962 03065 9902 +130 +056 001039 039 030 001 00
033400 2515N 07529W 6963 03063 9905 +126 +063 004040 040 029 002 03
033430 2513N 07529W 6962 03064 9905 +125 +067 005040 042 030 002 00
033500 2511N 07529W 6962 03062 9901 +126 +067 003041 042 029 001 00
033530 2508N 07529W 6962 03062 9903 +125 +072 002041 042 028 001 00
033600 2506N 07529W 6958 03067 9904 +123 +074 001041 042 032 001 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The last pass had the highest flight level winds to date and had about the highest surface wind as measured by a dropsonde to date. (It recorded wind until 1 millibar above the surface) It's still packing a serious punch.

[northjaxpro]

You can see the satellite imagery which highlights your points ozonepete. Joaquin has a northwest to southeast tilted structure right now. What a complex storm. Definitely one for the history books for sure!! I saw the reports out of the Bahamas and it is complete devastation in some areas. My heart and prayers to the people who have been impacted and still are at this hour.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030345
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 50 20151003
033630 2504N 07529W 6963 03059 9903 +123 +076 001043 044 032 001 00
033700 2502N 07529W 6961 03062 9904 +121 +077 359044 045 031 004 00
033730 2500N 07529W 6967 03051 9905 +117 +086 359045 045 031 004 00
033800 2458N 07529W 6959 03063 9911 +113 +083 358046 048 029 005 00
033830 2456N 07529W 6961 03060 9903 +120 +074 355046 047 028 004 00
033900 2454N 07529W 6962 03058 9910 +116 +076 354047 048 031 002 00
033930 2451N 07528W 6962 03058 9916 +110 +079 353046 047 032 005 00
034000 2449N 07528W 6959 03059 9913 +110 +082 354048 050 032 003 00
034030 2447N 07528W 6961 03059 9918 +107 +081 352045 047 031 003 00
034100 2445N 07528W 6966 03053 9924 +099 +094 350046 048 031 003 01
034130 2443N 07528W 6963 03057 9920 +102 +095 349043 045 031 003 01
034200 2441N 07528W 6964 03055 9916 +103 +099 350044 046 033 002 05
034230 2439N 07528W 6958 03065 9923 +105 +099 346040 044 034 004 01
034300 2437N 07528W 6959 03068 9934 +106 //// 338038 044 037 007 01
034330 2434N 07528W 6946 03081 9941 +112 //// 334038 042 045 018 05
034400 2432N 07528W 6971 03051 9934 +111 +111 347041 047 038 012 00
034430 2430N 07528W 6969 03052 9924 +101 //// 346050 053 033 006 01
034500 2428N 07527W 6964 03062 //// +099 //// 338044 050 033 002 01
034530 2426N 07527W 6962 03066 9929 +097 //// 336042 044 033 002 01
034600 2424N 07527W 6963 03066 9931 +105 +085 341043 044 033 002 03
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030355
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 51 20151003
034630 2422N 07527W 6961 03071 9933 +102 +096 329044 048 /// /// 03
034700 2420N 07527W 6965 03066 9939 +099 +095 321046 048 /// /// 03
034730 2418N 07527W 6947 03092 //// +096 //// 320045 049 /// /// 05
034800 2416N 07527W 6961 03074 9934 +106 +087 318044 045 /// /// 03
034830 2414N 07527W 6963 03071 9938 +105 +081 316046 046 /// /// 03
034900 2412N 07527W 6962 03075 9937 +107 +078 317048 049 /// /// 03
034930 2410N 07527W 6958 03077 9932 +110 +071 316049 051 /// /// 03
035000 2407N 07527W 6965 03071 9934 +111 +063 315050 051 /// /// 03
035030 2405N 07526W 6963 03074 9932 +115 +060 316051 051 /// /// 03
035100 2403N 07526W 6963 03074 9932 +115 +063 316051 052 /// /// 03
035130 2401N 07526W 6961 03078 9930 +115 +060 318052 053 /// /// 03
035200 2359N 07526W 6963 03076 9928 +118 +055 317054 054 /// /// 03
035230 2357N 07526W 6959 03080 9925 +122 +048 315054 055 /// /// 03
035300 2355N 07526W 6962 03077 9925 +122 +051 311053 054 /// /// 03
035330 2353N 07526W 6962 03077 9931 +115 +072 307051 052 /// /// 03
035400 2351N 07526W 6961 03081 9931 +116 +070 305050 050 037 002 00
035430 2349N 07526W 6961 03081 9929 +118 +072 302049 050 036 001 00
035500 2347N 07526W 6958 03087 9939 +115 +075 305050 050 039 002 00
035530 2345N 07526W 6958 03086 9938 +113 +080 307051 052 037 003 00
035600 2343N 07525W 6963 03082 9935 +118 +068 305050 050 037 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030405
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 52 20151003
035630 2341N 07525W 6961 03086 9931 +120 +070 305050 051 039 001 00
035700 2339N 07525W 6962 03084 9936 +117 +078 307051 051 035 002 00
035730 2337N 07525W 6962 03087 9945 +108 +095 305050 052 036 001 00
035800 2335N 07525W 6960 03088 9941 +110 +101 309051 053 036 003 01
035830 2333N 07525W 6963 03088 9947 +108 +098 308051 052 036 003 00
035900 2331N 07525W 6962 03091 9954 +103 +094 302049 050 039 003 00
035930 2329N 07525W 6955 03099 9955 +106 +089 301048 049 039 002 00
040000 2328N 07525W 6963 03090 9957 +107 +079 299049 049 031 001 00
040030 2326N 07525W 6959 03097 9954 +109 +078 299048 049 032 001 00
040100 2324N 07525W 6962 03095 9955 +111 +074 296048 048 030 000 00
040130 2322N 07525W 6963 03093 9950 +115 +074 292047 048 029 001 00
040200 2320N 07524W 6959 03095 9948 +115 +078 289049 050 030 001 00
040230 2318N 07524W 6958 03097 9946 +114 +081 290051 053 030 001 00
040300 2316N 07524W 6961 03094 9950 +111 +090 292053 053 029 001 03
040330 2314N 07524W 6961 03093 9954 +106 +096 288050 053 027 001 03
040400 2313N 07523W 6950 03107 9948 +110 +088 287047 049 /// /// 03
040430 2313N 07521W 6965 03088 9951 +109 +088 286045 047 026 002 03
040500 2314N 07520W 6961 03093 //// +101 //// 285046 048 029 001 01
040530 2316N 07519W 6961 03092 9955 +105 +092 287048 048 031 000 00
040600 2317N 07517W 6962 03089 9952 +107 +085 287047 048 032 000 03
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030415
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 53 20151003
040630 2319N 07516W 6965 03086 9939 +118 +080 282044 046 034 001 00
040700 2320N 07515W 6959 03092 9941 +115 +081 280045 046 034 000 00
040730 2321N 07513W 6961 03089 9947 +111 +076 286043 045 032 000 03
040800 2323N 07512W 6965 03081 9950 +108 +073 288044 044 054 004 03
040830 2324N 07510W 6959 03086 9948 +107 +075 289045 045 075 011 03
040900 2325N 07509W 6962 03082 9941 +110 +086 295046 048 035 000 00
040930 2327N 07507W 6962 03080 9941 +102 +101 298048 048 037 002 01
041000 2328N 07506W 6961 03080 9946 +104 +098 298048 049 037 003 03
041030 2329N 07505W 6965 03071 9936 +107 +095 300048 049 037 003 00
041100 2331N 07503W 6961 03076 9935 +107 +093 300049 049 035 002 00
041130 2332N 07502W 6965 03070 9919 +120 +072 297048 048 037 001 03
041200 2333N 07500W 6961 03073 9918 +120 +072 298050 051 039 001 00
041230 2335N 07459W 6960 03072 9920 +117 +073 296049 050 039 001 00
041300 2336N 07458W 6961 03070 9924 +115 +074 297050 051 036 001 03
041330 2337N 07456W 6958 03071 9922 +113 +075 296051 052 037 002 00
041400 2338N 07455W 6962 03064 9918 +114 +074 295052 052 044 000 03
041430 2340N 07453W 6960 03065 9919 +113 +070 296053 053 061 003 03
041500 2341N 07452W 6963 03059 9915 +115 +068 296055 055 /// /// 03
041530 2342N 07451W 6963 03056 9914 +112 +062 297056 057 /// /// 03
041600 2344N 07449W 6963 03054 9911 +114 +058 296056 057 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Sanibel]

Bahamas Weekly:

THE National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), in co-ordination with local government officials from islands affected by Hurricane Joaquin, are reporting on Friday afternoon that attempts to contact Long Island and Crooked Island have brought no response.

#In Rum Cay, St Christopher’s Anglican Church, the island's shelter, has experienced structural damage and damage from flooding. However, the people seeking shelter there relocated to the clinic and they are anticipating more than the 32 already there.

[sponger]

Bahamas still getting worked. Must have been a horrible couple of days.

[Sanibel]

Bahamas Weekly:

RESIDENTS of Long Island, among the hardest hit southern Bahamas islands by Hurricane Joaquin, have described the Category 4 storm as “the worst we’ve ever seen”.

#Loretta Butler-Turner, the Long Island MP, said the storm could not have hit her constituents “much harder”. She said the centre of Joaquin travelled the entire length of the island, so named because it stretches for 100 miles.

#Revealing that she lost communications with Long Island at 1.30am on Friday, Mrs Butler-Turner said members of its Disaster Preparedness Committee had spent the previous night rescuing islanders from damaged or destroyed buildings.

#Estimating the numbers who had to be rescued at “not more than 20”, she said: “Up to 1.30am this morning, the Disaster Committee team was out rescuing individuals who found themselves in compromised buildings or buildings that had been totally destroyed.”

#Mrs Butler-Turner said most of the rescues took place in south Long Island, after Joaquin’s turn shifted the storm’s centre towards its northern end.

#She added that some of the island’s hurricane shelters were forced to close after water started leaking in, forcing people to seek refuge in homes belonging to other islanders. Residents living in low lying areas also had to be evacuated due to flooding.

#“Right now, I can’t say what level of devastation they’ve endured,” Mrs Butler-Turner said. “The individuals I’ve spoken to have said this is the worst they’ve ever seen it, with 100 mile per hour-plus winds. The sea surge and high tide has not helped the situation. They could not have been hit much harder, with the economic depression and now this significant and relentless storm that hovered over them for 36 hours. It could not have been much worse.”

#Mrs Butler-Turner said she was working with businesses and private donors to secure relief supplies for her constituents, promising that she would fly to Long Island from the Bahamian capital, Nassau, to assess the damage as soon as the weather allowed.

#She added that the US embassy in Nassau was also working to co-ordinate reconnaissance flights over Long Island and other islands in the central and southern Bahamas that had born the brunt of Joaquin.

#The storm is expected to turn towards the north-east and leave the Bahamas during tonight and Saturday morning, after dropping up to 25 inches of rain.