ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022315
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 23 20151002
230630 2426N 07433W 6961 02825 9597 +166 +087 059083 086 075 005 00
230700 2425N 07431W 6981 02776 9571 +167 +097 060087 091 078 005 03
230730 2424N 07430W 6961 02782 9565 +150 +114 048081 091 078 007 03
230800 2423N 07429W 6967 02756 9549 +148 +108 057083 089 076 008 03
230830 2421N 07428W 6978 02724 9483 +200 +102 055088 095 064 004 00
230900 2419N 07427W 6970 02703 9454 +193 +115 056080 084 056 004 00
230930 2418N 07426W 6971 02676 9421 +198 +114 054063 076 041 002 00
231000 2416N 07425W 6962 02661 9399 +195 +110 049044 054 037 003 00
231030 2415N 07424W 6971 02639 9398 +182 +118 056023 040 027 003 00
231100 2413N 07423W 6967 02636 9403 +166 +126 082011 016 016 002 00
231130 2412N 07422W 6965 02637 9406 +161 +132 172004 007 013 001 00
231200 2411N 07421W 6967 02634 9404 +163 +132 195010 013 014 002 00
231230 2409N 07419W 6968 02633 9407 +159 +135 212015 018 016 003 00
231300 2408N 07418W 6969 02634 9417 +148 +140 226021 024 020 003 00
231330 2407N 07417W 6963 02647 9427 +142 //// 244024 026 022 005 01
231400 2405N 07415W 6970 02639 //// +140 //// 246033 037 026 004 01
231430 2404N 07414W 6966 02648 9429 +148 +136 247042 046 035 003 01
231500 2403N 07412W 6968 02657 9446 +148 +144 238056 057 056 009 03
231530 2401N 07411W 6973 02665 9467 +146 //// 236060 065 113 006 01
231600 2400N 07409W 6971 02682 9487 +141 //// 230083 091 114 005 01
$$
;

95 kt FL, 114 kt SFMR (so far). Pressure 940mb.

[CrazyC83]

Recon suggest Joaquin hasn't weakened much if at all. That said, the SFMR is about 20% higher than the flight level winds, which is weird. Either 105 or 110 kt is probably right.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through HDOB 24. With some vortex messages from previous missions. 5pm track.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022325
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 24 20151002
231630 2359N 07408W 6970 02696 9530 +140 //// 232104 116 107 020 05
231700 2358N 07407W 6984 02717 9574 +141 +141 234108 114 /// /// 03
231730 2357N 07406W 6966 02769 9619 +134 +134 231117 121 107 071 00
231800 2355N 07404W 6954 02808 9648 +131 +131 233120 122 103 070 00
231830 2354N 07403W 6966 02822 9691 +125 +125 232120 122 097 064 03
231900 2353N 07402W 6952 02863 9732 +107 +107 228123 126 088 048 00
231930 2352N 07401W 6974 02859 9755 +107 +107 232121 126 084 043 03
232000 2351N 07359W 6962 02891 9769 +110 +110 232114 116 074 046 03
232030 2350N 07358W 6965 02907 9781 +106 +106 235107 113 073 017 00
232100 2349N 07357W 6973 02918 9792 +105 +105 232107 108 070 015 03
232130 2347N 07356W 6955 02945 9796 +101 +099 236101 107 065 009 00
232200 2346N 07354W 6971 02935 9797 +104 +091 236097 098 064 008 00
232230 2345N 07353W 6968 02949 9803 +107 +098 235094 098 062 007 00
232300 2344N 07352W 6962 02962 9800 +117 +088 234088 091 061 006 00
232330 2342N 07350W 6965 02962 9797 +124 +076 239091 091 058 007 00
232400 2341N 07349W 6974 02960 9823 +109 +084 240096 097 056 006 00
232430 2340N 07347W 6969 02973 9835 +105 +087 240093 096 055 004 00
232500 2338N 07346W 6963 02987 9853 +102 +098 236089 093 054 006 00
232530 2337N 07345W 6974 02979 9856 +095 //// 234083 084 053 005 01
232600 2336N 07343W 6959 02999 9860 +098 +088 237082 084 051 003 00
$$
;

126 kt FL. Combined with previous SFMR, likely a Cat 4 again.

[CrazyC83]

Update: looks like Joaquin has intensified. Both FL and SFMR support 115 kt. A case might even be there for 120 kt if you assume only a small area has been sampled so far.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT12 KNHC 022334
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 02/23:11:30Z
B. 24 deg 12 min N
074 deg 22 min W
C. 700 mb 2595 m
D. 75 kt
E. 324 deg 17 nm
F. 054 deg 95 kt
G. 325 deg 10 nm
H. 943 mb
I. 14 C / 3036 m
J. 18 C / 3054 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C28
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 1211A JOAQUIN OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 126 KT 133 / 27 NM 23:19:20Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 325 / 1 KT
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 325 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 23:34Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 23:11:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°12'N 74°22'W (24.2N 74.3667W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,595m (8,514ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NW (324°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 54° at 95kts (From the NE at ~ 109.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (325°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 943mb (27.85 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,036m (9,961ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 126kts (~ 145.0mph) which was observed 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SE (133°) from the flight level center at 23:19:20Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 325° at 1kts (From the NW at 1mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (325°) from the flight level center

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022335
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 25 20151002
232630 2335N 07342W 6966 02997 9862 +103 +079 237079 081 051 003 00
232700 2333N 07341W 6966 03000 9866 +100 +083 236080 081 052 004 00
232730 2332N 07339W 6967 03000 9864 +105 +077 237080 081 049 004 00
232800 2331N 07338W 6966 03005 9868 +105 +077 236078 078 051 003 00
232830 2330N 07336W 6966 03010 9873 +106 +074 238077 078 051 003 00
232900 2328N 07335W 6969 03013 9875 +106 +075 238074 075 050 002 00
232930 2327N 07334W 6966 03020 9878 +111 +073 238074 074 049 003 00
233000 2326N 07332W 6967 03022 9884 +109 +070 238073 074 049 003 00
233030 2324N 07331W 6967 03026 9892 +102 +088 237073 074 049 003 00
233100 2323N 07329W 6961 03036 //// +092 //// 239072 074 048 004 01
233130 2322N 07328W 6969 03027 //// +095 //// 238070 073 046 004 01
233200 2321N 07327W 6969 03030 9912 +093 +085 237067 070 043 004 00
233230 2319N 07325W 6970 03032 9915 +095 +091 237068 069 043 006 00
233300 2318N 07324W 6962 03043 9925 +100 +100 237071 073 042 007 00
233330 2317N 07322W 6974 03033 9927 +098 +097 238072 074 041 006 00
233400 2315N 07321W 6969 03041 9925 +094 //// 241070 071 041 005 01
233430 2314N 07320W 6961 03053 9956 +097 +097 235068 071 042 009 00
233500 2313N 07318W 6967 03049 9947 +095 +095 230067 071 038 009 03
233530 2312N 07317W 6966 03049 9943 +097 +097 232062 065 037 007 00
233600 2310N 07316W 6971 03047 9939 +096 //// 231058 059 037 005 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 022334
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 02/23:11:30Z
B. 24 deg 12 min N
074 deg 22 min W
C. 700 mb 2595 m
D. 75 kt
E. 324 deg 17 nm
F. 054 deg 95 kt
G. 325 deg 10 nm
H. 943 mb
I. 14 C / 3036 m
J. 18 C / 3054 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C28
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 1211A JOAQUIN OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 126 KT 133 / 27 NM 23:19:20Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 325 / 1 KT
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 325 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[tolakram]

Live IR loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-74&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wide View:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[NDG]

This is horrible news, hope they're OK.

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/news/59641

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wide view. 7pm satellite, water vapor from SSEC.

[USTropics]

Really good pass about 40 minutes ago:

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022346
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 26 20151002
233630 2309N 07314W 6956 03067 //// +088 //// 231061 062 038 004 01
233700 2308N 07313W 6973 03045 9950 +093 //// 231062 064 038 004 01
233730 2307N 07312W 6959 03064 9961 +095 +095 232053 061 037 007 00
233800 2305N 07310W 6964 03059 9959 +094 //// 230061 062 035 005 01
233830 2304N 07309W 6970 03055 9953 +089 //// 225066 068 035 004 01
233900 2303N 07308W 6965 03062 9964 +079 //// 220064 068 036 004 01
233930 2302N 07306W 6936 03098 9964 +088 //// 225057 062 034 007 01
234000 2300N 07305W 6915 03126 9965 +092 +092 224050 055 042 011 03
234030 2259N 07304W 6964 03066 9981 +089 +089 231057 059 041 012 00
234100 2258N 07302W 6960 03064 9993 +085 +085 237063 069 042 026 00
234130 2257N 07301W 6970 03055 9987 +089 +089 236066 070 047 024 00
234200 2255N 07300W 6939 03096 9979 +097 +097 236057 062 047 030 03
234230 2254N 07258W 6963 03065 9985 +084 //// 234063 070 047 031 05
234300 2254N 07256W 6975 03045 //// +069 //// 223067 072 /// /// 05
234330 2256N 07255W 6940 03087 //// +067 //// 218062 066 /// /// 05
234400 2258N 07256W 6981 03041 9968 +098 //// 219065 069 028 058 01
234430 2300N 07256W 6943 03089 9970 +112 +112 209047 065 029 066 03
234500 2302N 07256W 6980 03043 9978 +114 +114 221046 054 052 057 03
234530 2304N 07256W 6964 03075 9971 +111 +111 240057 061 058 038 03
234600 2306N 07256W 6953 03086 9964 +105 +105 226054 060 048 021 03
$$
;

[wxman57]

Looks like it's being stretched NW/SE now. Upper winds are definitely not as favorable as they have been. Should see steady weakening.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022355
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 27 20151002
234630 2308N 07256W 6959 03076 9945 +099 //// 225051 056 039 005 01
234700 2310N 07256W 6957 03079 9948 +097 +097 223053 054 037 009 00
234730 2312N 07256W 6964 03069 9940 +100 +095 219053 054 035 004 00
234800 2314N 07256W 6961 03073 9944 +096 +095 216052 053 037 004 00
234830 2316N 07256W 6963 03071 9944 +097 +096 219050 052 035 003 00
234900 2318N 07256W 6961 03071 //// +095 //// 218050 050 036 002 01
234930 2320N 07256W 6961 03071 //// +093 //// 220049 050 036 004 01
235000 2323N 07256W 6964 03062 9965 +095 //// 218055 058 037 005 05
235030 2325N 07256W 6970 03058 9937 +099 +092 220054 057 037 002 00
235100 2327N 07255W 6959 03070 9935 +100 +086 221052 053 038 002 00
235130 2329N 07255W 6961 03066 9937 +094 +088 220052 053 039 002 00
235200 2331N 07255W 6959 03066 9934 +095 +090 219052 054 040 002 01
235230 2333N 07255W 6965 03055 9926 +101 +086 218053 054 042 003 00
235300 2335N 07255W 6960 03059 9915 +110 +071 219055 057 043 003 00
235330 2337N 07255W 6958 03061 9907 +119 +054 220053 056 046 003 00
235400 2339N 07255W 6958 03063 9908 +115 +060 221050 051 051 002 00
235430 2342N 07255W 6965 03054 9909 +116 +066 224051 052 050 003 00
235500 2344N 07255W 6966 03052 9907 +116 +072 224054 054 051 003 00
235530 2346N 07255W 6958 03060 9902 +120 +055 217051 054 055 004 00
235600 2348N 07255W 6963 03053 9897 +125 +053 216051 052 057 005 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030005
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 28 20151002
235630 2350N 07255W 6961 03054 9887 +133 +044 216054 054 058 005 00
235700 2352N 07255W 6957 03055 9884 +130 +054 213055 055 058 004 00
235730 2354N 07255W 6960 03052 9885 +129 +053 214054 055 059 003 00
235800 2357N 07255W 6959 03052 9886 +128 +054 211056 057 056 003 00
235830 2359N 07255W 6965 03046 9895 +120 +064 208056 057 056 003 00
235900 2401N 07255W 6963 03047 9894 +120 +064 206056 057 055 003 00
235930 2401N 07255W 6963 03047 9891 +122 +059 204057 057 053 002 00
000000 2405N 07255W 6958 03048 9894 +117 +064 203058 059 052 002 00
000030 2408N 07255W 6961 03043 9891 +115 +063 205062 065 046 003 00
000100 2410N 07255W 6965 03033 9907 +096 +082 202066 067 044 003 00
000130 2412N 07255W 6962 03032 //// +088 //// 199068 068 047 003 01
000200 2415N 07255W 6964 03032 9911 +089 +086 197067 069 046 004 01
000230 2417N 07255W 6965 03035 9903 +101 +080 198064 066 050 003 00
000300 2419N 07255W 6945 03060 9885 +119 +067 191059 062 051 002 00
000330 2421N 07254W 6961 03048 9903 +109 +073 194063 064 049 003 00
000400 2424N 07254W 6970 03035 9910 +100 +083 195064 065 047 002 00
000430 2426N 07254W 6966 03038 9902 +106 +078 194064 065 050 003 00
000500 2428N 07254W 6961 03047 9900 +111 +078 187063 064 051 002 00
000530 2431N 07254W 6962 03049 9903 +112 +077 190062 063 051 002 00
000600 2433N 07254W 6953 03060 9909 +105 +086 186060 062 052 002 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030015
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 29 20151003
000630 2435N 07254W 6962 03049 9910 +105 +085 186061 062 053 003 00
000700 2438N 07254W 6961 03052 9907 +109 +074 183057 060 051 003 00
000730 2440N 07254W 6963 03049 9912 +105 +078 181056 057 049 001 00
000800 2442N 07254W 6965 03047 9918 +100 +084 180056 058 047 002 00
000830 2444N 07254W 6962 03051 9911 +108 +072 179054 055 046 003 00
000900 2447N 07254W 6961 03051 9895 +120 +063 176053 054 047 003 00
000930 2449N 07254W 6962 03052 9910 +109 +076 175055 055 047 001 00
001000 2451N 07254W 6965 03049 9921 +100 +082 179056 057 045 002 00
001030 2453N 07254W 6959 03059 9921 +101 +079 180056 058 045 002 00
001100 2456N 07254W 6960 03058 9918 +105 +079 176055 056 046 001 00
001130 2458N 07254W 6965 03056 9920 +105 +076 176052 053 046 002 00
001200 2500N 07254W 6957 03065 9921 +104 +083 173052 053 044 002 00
001230 2502N 07254W 6967 03054 9912 +117 +070 174050 053 046 002 00
001300 2504N 07254W 6958 03065 9916 +113 +071 173051 052 046 001 00
001330 2507N 07254W 6964 03059 9929 +102 +085 170053 053 046 002 00
001400 2509N 07254W 6963 03062 9935 +098 +089 169052 053 046 002 00
001430 2511N 07253W 6960 03068 9925 +108 +080 169049 050 046 001 00
001500 2513N 07253W 6961 03068 9931 +105 +078 171049 050 045 001 00
001530 2516N 07253W 6965 03064 9932 +105 +069 170047 048 043 001 00
001600 2518N 07253W 6958 03073 9939 +099 +080 170047 048 040 001 00
$$
;