ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

that's a big reason I think it'll ride up along the western edge of the current cone (assuming there aren't westward adjustments).



(also I see your location changed aric, are congrats in order?)

that was over a year ago..

[kat61]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
Forgive my lack of experience perhaps, but i'm having a hard time seeing where and how J can get moving to the Northeast. The ULL to the east is advancing to the west HARD and that sliver of exit has all but seemed to almost close. It almost looks like another 6 hours and J will have nowhere to go but right up the east coast. Doesnt look like it could go anywhere North, let alone north east with that giant ULL pushing right into it

And i say this coming from a place of NON -removed-, as i'm on Long Island and the last thing we need is another hurricane

Yeah I hear you. Here in eastern NC where I'm at has had about 10" of rain in the last week. IM

I'm 5 mi. inland from Topsail and we have flood warnings...

[windnrain]

Joaquin itself might not hit but chunks of it are being pulled off and slammed into the coast.

[stormlover2013]

its not hitting anything on the east coast, I feel bad for Bahamas and Bermuda could get it....but USA landfall its not going to happen.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Nate-Gillson]

Do you think Joaquin will get retired for what it's doing to the Bahamas?

[Steve]

Yeah windnrain, it looks like the outflow channel has linked into the potential Nor'easter. NAM was stretching the whole system out before it got as strong as it did, and linked up a channel (including a band of extreme rainfall) across SC. I'm not sure if that's who gets it the worst or if it's going to be Eastern NC. But you can also see the upper low cutting off around Alabama. I highly doubt Joaquin is going to split, but it's definitely pumping in moisture into the mid-Atlantic.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the western outflow channel is going to continue to pump moisture up along the east coast as the cut off low dives south through Alabama and into the gulf. Even as Joaquin moves north the channel will go negative tilt.

The WV loops are nice for getting the general outline of the upper air flow, but their color scheme is driven by moisture content. What we need is a real time dynamic observation plane that has all the pressure heights color schemed similarly to the water vapor loop. Maybe they could set up a program to network balloon soundings? Probably about as likely to get budget approval as getting a back stage pass to hear Nena sing "99 red balloons"..

[AutoPenalti]

Joaquin itself might not hit but chunks of it are being pulled off and slammed into the coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

Look at that tight avenue.

[tatertawt24]

Looks like Andrew at landfall but with no eye. The shape is exactly the same.

[CrazyC83]

Do you think Joaquin will get retired for what it's doing to the Bahamas?

Possible, but not a guarantee. Not sure how well the Bahamas are at making retirement cases since most bad storms for them also hit other countries.

[Sanibel]

It must have peaked because San Salvador is in the eyewall and maintaining around 110mph sustained Gusts 140mph.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Their station has been offline for hours.

They are currently posting a 90mph sustained wind with a direction change to SSW. Indicating the edge of the eye with a 20mph reduction in the peak 110 windspeed.

[PTrackerLA]

Truly amazing this did not get drawn into the Carolina's based off of that water vapor. I'd imagine if the SSW dip had not been so deep, we would be looking at a terribly different situation.

[CrazyC83]

Could that Carolina low develop into a tropical system itself - could we get Kate out of this?

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Joaquin has weakened a little since
the last advisory, with the central pressure rising to 942 mb.
Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to 110 kt.
Subsequent observations from San Salvador Island and dropsondes from
a NASA aircraft suggest the pressure is still near 942 mb. While
the hurricane continues to produce cold cloud tops in the eyewall,
the convective pattern currently looks ragged in infrared imagery,
and only occasional hints of a eye are apparent in visible imagery.

The initial motion is now 360/6. Water vapor imagery shows a mid-
to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane,
while a deep-layer trough and associated surface front are located
over the southeastern United States. This system is forecast to
move slowly eastward with a non-tropical low forming along the
front during the next couple of days. While this occurs, a mid- to
upper-level low currently centered near 30N 64W should move
west-northwestward to the north of Joaquin. These developments
should steer Joaquin northward for the next few hours, followed by
a turn toward the northeast. The track guidance is now in good
agreement that Joaquin will move generally northeastward between
the United States and Bermuda, with a short-lived northward turn in
the 48-72 hour period. Eventually, the cyclone is expected to
move into the westerlies and move quickly east-northeastward across
the North Atlantic. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous forecast and now lies near the consensus models.

Joaquin is forecast to remain in an environment of light vertical
wind shear for another 12-24 hours or so, and during this time some
fluctuations in intensity are possible. After 24 hours, the shear is
forecast to increase, which should start a steady weakening.
Extratropical transition is expected to begin around 96 hours and be
complete by 120 hours. Overall, the new intensity forecast is an
update of the previous advisory and lies near the intensity
consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions over portions of the Bahamas should
continue for several more hours.

2. Swells from a hurricane moving even far offshore of the U.S.
east coast can still cause life-threatening surf and rip-current
conditions. Please see products from your local National Weather
Service forecast office. For information on the heavy rains
occurring along the U.S. Atlantic states that are mostly unrelated
to Hurricane Joaquin, please see products from the NWS Weather
Prediction Center and your local forecast office.

3. Since the direct threat of hurricane conditions to land areas
is diminishing significantly, this will be the last set of key
messages unless the threat increases.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 24.1N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 25.1N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 26.9N 72.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 29.2N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 31.7N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 36.5N 67.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 40.5N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 45.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Weatherwatcher98]

Could that Carolina low develop into a tropical system itself - could we get Kate out of this?

ULL over Alabama won't let that happen

[NDG]

Could that Carolina low develop into a tropical system itself - could we get Kate out of this?

There's a lot of cool air being drawn into the low pressure developing along the SE US coast, it will not be tropical in nature, plus the ULL will be very close to it making it a cold core.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Could that Carolina low develop into a tropical system itself - could we get Kate out of this?

There's a lot of cool air being drawn into the low pressure developing along the SE US coast, it will not be tropical in nature, plus the ULL will be very close to it making it a cold core.

Like I said and what you said

[CrazyC83]

Those "key messages" were so helpful especially in an uncertain situation.

[NDG]

Could that Carolina low develop into a tropical system itself - could we get Kate out of this?

There's a lot of cool air being drawn into the low pressure developing along the SE US coast, it will not be tropical in nature, plus the ULL will be very close to it making it a cold core.

Like I said and what you said

Yeap

Heck, if anything it doesn't feel like tropical wx at all across the the SE US, except FL and immediate coastal areas of the Carolinas. Even if the crazy CMC would had come to fruition of Joaquin making landfall in the Carolinas it would had been loosing its tropical characteristics and strength as it was to approach the coast as some of this cool & drier continental airmass would had gotten drawn into the storm along with increasing windshear from the ULL.

[Aric Dunn]

started moving slightly to the right now..