ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Where can I find recent water vapor loops?

[Steve]

The water vapor gif shows a ull to the hurricanes east and to its west. The one to the east looks to be heading quickly to the west. I don't see the escape route today like I saw it yesterday. All this looks very weird

Probably less than a 3% chance that some of the moisture will get stretched out and into the SE Low splitting off of Joaquin rather than just linking up with it. But we all know never to say never. Besides the water vapor loop which updates a little more frequently (MIMIC once per hour), check out the preciptable water (MIMIC) microwave - not for the storm itself (which you can always do and people post it all the time) but for the basin as a whole. Sorry to everyone else, since this is probably the 3rd time in 3 days I put up a link. But MIMIC rules as a tool.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[EquusStorm]

Wow. Hopefully just communication issues but I also ask why a container ship would be sent basically through the middle of a major hurricane.

To be fair, when the cargo ship first left it was only a tropical storm.

Yikes. Well, that puts Joaquin's rapid intensification into real perspective. Plus it did go a bit SW of most forecast tracks for a while which looks to have led it right into the ship's path. Probably could've gotten away with it had it remained a low end hurricane a couple hundred miles or so to the northeast.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[AutoPenalti]

The water vapor gif shows a ull to the hurricanes east and to its west. The one to the east looks to be heading quickly to the west. I don't see the escape route today like I saw it yesterday. All this looks very weird

It's there, just very thin.

[invest man]

The water vapor gif shows a ull to the hurricanes east and to its west. The one to the east looks to be heading quickly to the west. I don't see the escape route today like I saw it yesterday. All this looks very weird

Probably less than a 3% chance that some of the moisture will get stretched out and into the SE Low splitting off of Joaquin rather than just linking up with it. But we all know never to say never. Besides the water vapor loop which updates a little more frequently (MIMIC once per hour), check out the preciptable water (MIMIC) microwave - not for the storm itself (which you can always do and people post it all the time) but for the basin as a whole. Sorry to everyone else, since this is probably the 3rd time in 3 days I put up a link. But MIMIC rules as a tool.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

I still don't see a path for the cane to turn into that "blue" Surge heading westward.

[hurricanekid416]

Yea im trying to find the weakness but i cant right now, maybe my eyes are deceiving me

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 021713
AF306 1111A JOAQUIN HDOB 59 20151002
170430 2356N 07506W 6963 02854 9681 +144 //// 030091 093 074 008 01
170500 2356N 07506W 6963 02854 9692 +129 //// 029088 089 070 005 01
170530 2358N 07508W 6968 02877 9715 +123 //// 026086 088 069 004 01
170600 2359N 07509W 6966 02892 //// +117 //// 030086 090 067 004 01
170630 2400N 07511W 6971 02897 //// +116 //// 031082 083 066 004 01
170700 2401N 07512W 6969 02911 9743 +122 //// 031084 085 065 004 01
170730 2402N 07513W 6962 02928 9750 +123 +120 032082 085 065 004 00
170800 2403N 07514W 6968 02930 9769 +116 //// 034079 082 063 004 01
170830 2405N 07515W 6974 02930 9820 +107 +107 033074 076 060 008 00
170900 2406N 07516W 6958 02953 9810 +106 //// 029075 078 058 007 01
170930 2407N 07518W 6969 02954 9808 +106 +105 030075 078 057 005 01
171000 2408N 07519W 6967 02962 //// +099 //// 028072 074 056 001 05
171030 2409N 07520W 6969 02967 9821 +110 +100 027072 074 /// /// 03
171100 2410N 07521W 6950 02992 9826 +105 +099 027072 072 /// /// 03
171130 2411N 07522W 6963 02981 9831 +108 +099 031068 071 /// /// 03
171200 2413N 07524W 6966 02982 9840 +104 +098 033065 067 /// /// 03
171230 2414N 07525W 6974 02980 9840 +109 +099 032063 064 042 000 00
171300 2416N 07527W 6963 02998 9851 +104 +101 034061 062 041 001 01
171330 2417N 07529W 6971 02993 9855 +108 +103 035059 061 040 000 00
171400 2419N 07530W 6966 03003 9858 +109 +105 034057 058 039 000 00


000
URNT15 KNHC 021724
AF306 1111A JOAQUIN HDOB 60 20151002
171430 2420N 07532W 6966 03008 //// +103 //// 037055 057 037 001 01
171500 2422N 07534W 6964 03015 //// +105 //// 038054 056 037 001 01
171530 2423N 07535W 6967 03014 9863 +116 +109 038052 054 036 001 00
171600 2425N 07537W 6973 03008 9865 +118 +109 033049 051 036 001 00
171630 2427N 07539W 6967 03020 9866 +115 +111 032049 050 036 000 00
171700 2428N 07540W 6967 03023 9872 +113 +111 036049 050 034 002 01
171730 2430N 07542W 6969 03025 //// +110 //// 036047 048 034 000 01
171800 2431N 07544W 6970 03026 //// +105 //// 037045 046 032 001 01
171830 2433N 07545W 6967 03031 //// +105 //// 036043 045 031 001 01
171900 2434N 07547W 6967 03034 //// +106 //// 038043 044 030 000 01
171930 2436N 07549W 6971 03031 //// +105 //// 041044 044 031 000 01
172000 2437N 07551W 6969 03036 9888 +111 //// 040042 044 031 000 01
172030 2439N 07552W 6969 03037 9889 +113 +112 040042 042 030 000 01
172100 2441N 07554W 6964 03043 9892 +111 //// 042043 044 029 000 01
172130 2442N 07556W 6967 03042 //// +106 //// 044042 043 026 001 01
172200 2444N 07557W 6972 03038 9894 +110 //// 048043 045 028 000 01
172230 2445N 07559W 6967 03045 9897 +114 +112 045039 042 028 000 00
172300 2447N 07601W 6967 03044 //// +111 //// 045039 040 030 002 01
172330 2449N 07603W 6970 03044 9901 +115 +112 043037 038 029 001 00
172400 2450N 07604W 6966 03050 //// +110 //// 045036 036 027 000 01
$$
;

[invest man]

Yea im trying to find the weakness but i cant right now, maybe my eyes are deceiving me

It looks to get trapped or move toward Ga/SC area thePersonal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
n perhaps out with time. IM

[WYNweather]

Very sad wave height looks to be about 25 foot in that area,

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/oc ... 74/grid=on

Wow. Hopefully just communication issues but I also ask why a container ship would be sent basically through the middle of a major hurricane.

To be fair, when the cargo ship first left it was only a tropical storm.

Yikes. Well, that puts Joaquin's rapid intensification into real perspective. Plus it did go a bit SW of most forecast tracks for a while which looks to have led it right into the ship's path. Probably could've gotten away with it had it remained a low end hurricane a couple hundred miles or so to the northeast.

[Ken Lucas]

Yea im trying to find the weakness but i cant right now, maybe my eyes are deceiving me

It looks to get trapped or move toward Ga/SC area thePersonal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
n perhaps out with time. IM

Isn't that the landfall area the CMC model was showing?

[LarryWx]

It looks to me like the start of a turn to the NNE may be occuring very soon if not already but it will take several hours to know that.

[Sanibel]

Breaking out north now.


Eyewall edging over San Salvador.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Andy_L]

There must be more to this....a 735 foot ship should be able to handle 25 foot seas. must be other mechanical issues compounding the seas

[quote="WYNweather"]Very sad wave height looks to be about 25 foot in that area,

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/oc ... 74/grid=on

[Extratropical94]

Mission is over.

URNT15 KNHC 021733
AF306 1111A JOAQUIN HDOB 61 20151002
172430 2452N 07606W 6964 03051 //// +108 //// 046037 038 027 000 01
172500 2453N 07608W 6845 03205 //// +099 //// 044038 039 030 000 05
172530 2455N 07610W 6861 03182 //// +100 //// 045038 038 /// /// 05
172600 2457N 07611W 6622 03455 //// +090 //// 032035 037 /// /// 05
172630 2458N 07613W 6329 03839 //// +079 //// 038037 038 020 000 05
172700 2458N 07616W 6057 04199 //// +072 //// 034035 036 018 001 05
172730 2459N 07617W 5804 04545 //// +048 //// 030034 035 /// /// 05
172800 2500N 07619W 5654 04768 //// +037 //// 034032 033 018 000 05
172830 2500N 07621W 5478 05033 0140 +020 //// 033031 032 017 000 01
172900 2501N 07623W 5330 05257 0158 +004 //// 038036 038 017 000 01
172930 2502N 07625W 5141 05541 0176 -010 //// 033031 037 017 000 05
173000 2503N 07627W 4987 05793 0201 -028 //// 030027 028 019 000 05
173030 2503N 07629W 4862 05996 0217 -044 //// 033029 029 019 000 05
173100 2504N 07631W 4734 06205 0231 -061 //// 032029 030 017 001 05
173130 2505N 07633W 4623 06393 0246 -077 -090 038028 029 021 000 00
173200 2506N 07635W 4529 06551 0256 -088 -111 040028 030 021 000 03
173230 2506N 07637W 4431 06728 0271 -096 -126 047027 028 019 000 03
173300 2506N 07637W 4431 06728 0282 -108 -137 052027 028 020 000 00
173330 2508N 07641W 4256 07038 0295 -121 -150 057028 028 019 000 00
173400 2509N 07643W 4170 07194 0305 -133 -164 059029 029 019 000 00
$$
;

[Slughitter3]

There must be more to this....a 735 foot ship should be able to handle 25 foot seas. must be other mechanical issues compounding the seas

Very sad wave height looks to be about 25 foot in that area,

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/oc ... 74/grid=on

From some news sources I'm gathering that the Coast Guard said the last known location was relatively close to the eye of the storm. The location on Marine Traffic may just be where the AIS sat. lost contact with it. It's not looking good. If the Hurricane Hunter can't find a 735 foot ship, it, sadly, is most likely not floating anymore. I'll try to update as I get more information.

[WYNweather]

There must be more to this....a 735 foot ship should be able to handle 25 foot seas. must be other mechanical issues compounding the seas

Very sad wave height looks to be about 25 foot in that area,

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/oc ... 74/grid=on

Just a wild guess engine room flood and lost power. Few waves over the side would be any issue.

[Extratropical94]

[EquusStorm]

Up to 942 in intermediate advisory. North at 5mph.

[Slughitter3]

There must be more to this....a 735 foot ship should be able to handle 25 foot seas. must be other mechanical issues compounding the seas

Very sad wave height looks to be about 25 foot in that area,

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/oc ... 74/grid=on

Just a wild guess engine room flood and lost power. Few waves over the side would be any issue.

News Report "At approximately 7:30 a.m. Thursday, watch standers at the Coast Guard Atlantic Area command center in Portsmouth, Virginia, received an Inmarsat satellite notification stating the El Faro was beset by Hurricane Joaquin, had lost propulsion and had a 15-degree list. The crew reported the ship had previously taken on water, but that all flooding had been contained" Followed by, the Coast Guard lost communications with the vessel this morning.