ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021643
AF306 1111A JOAQUIN HDOB 56 20151002
163430 2354N 07445W 6984 02701 9513 +148 +113 094085 088 093 001 00
163500 2352N 07445W 6961 02708 9477 +158 +119 094077 083 093 001 00
163530 2350N 07445W 6964 02679 9448 +162 +124 096064 073 078 002 00
163600 2349N 07445W 6970 02658 9435 +159 +129 095052 060 057 002 00
163630 2347N 07445W 6964 02651 9433 +144 +134 090032 045 045 002 00
163700 2345N 07445W 6971 02638 9431 +139 +138 085019 026 036 004 00
163730 2343N 07445W 6967 02634 //// +140 //// 107015 017 022 002 05
163800 2342N 07445W 6971 02624 //// +139 //// 106010 014 013 002 05
163830 2340N 07446W 6965 02630 //// +135 //// 090002 007 019 000 01
163900 2338N 07446W 6973 02616 //// +140 //// 308005 008 015 001 01
163930 2336N 07446W 7041 02550 9428 +145 +144 291013 016 017 002 01
164000 2335N 07447W 7288 02258 9435 +159 +147 295022 026 014 003 03
164030 2334N 07449W 7531 01977 9443 +169 +149 316029 033 037 004 03
164100 2334N 07450W 7772 01715 9456 +180 +154 320037 041 040 002 00
164130 2334N 07452W 8049 01423 9474 +184 +160 327047 049 044 001 03
164200 2335N 07453W 8312 01144 9474 +195 +165 330041 045 041 002 03
164230 2337N 07452W 8586 00844 9456 +206 +170 332032 038 040 003 03
164300 2338N 07450W 8863 00558 9449 +221 +174 328022 029 032 001 03
164330 2338N 07449W 9069 00345 9434 +236 +179 324013 017 /// /// 03
164400 2338N 07447W 9081 00327 9428 +235 +185 311011 013 /// /// 03
$$
;

Descending in the eye??? I can't stay but what is going on??? Are they okay???

[psyclone]

Both the GFS and Euro take it well northeast of the United States now. Actually latest GFS looks like a Bermuda threat.
I wouldn't bet that those two models are wrong.

The United States escapes again.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Agree. at this point we have a big margin of safety in the states. the storm could move well west of the forecast and still miss by a wide margin. I am most interested in the Carolina flood threat which looks potentially extreme but as for the remainder of cane season we know it tends to shut down early with the western Caribbean frequently shut out for late season activity so it's certainly possible there may not be additional threats. time will tell. Peninsular Florida has a very high cold season svr wx signal during strong el ninos so our weather excitement this year may be during what is normally a sterile time of year.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Slughitter3]

I don't post on here very often and I'm sorry it's sad information, but just received word of a very scary news story and it may explain some of the communication issues with the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft. A US Flagged Containership with 33 persons on board has gone missing. They sent out an alert aprroximately 24 hours ago. According to marinetraffic.com its last position was about 100km north of Gregory Town, Bahamas. The news reported that the hurricane hunter was requested to attempt to locate and establish communications with the vessel, they were unsuccessful. Please keep the El Faro in your thoughts and prayers.

[CrazyC83]

I don't post on here very often and I'm sorry it's sad information, but just received word of a very scary news story and it may explain some of the communication issues with the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft. A US Flagged Containership with 33 persons on board has gone missing. They sent out an alert aprroximately 24 hours ago. According to marinetraffic.com its last position was about 100km north of Gregory Town, Bahamas. The news reported that the hurricane hunter was requested to attempt to locate and establish communications with the vessel, they were unsuccessful. Please keep the El Faro in your thoughts and prayers.

That explains the sudden descent.

Prayers for the ship and their families and the Hurricane Hunters working to rescue them...

[CrazyC83]

Hearing the sudden descent is an emergency call that was made to try to locate a ship missing.

[tolakram]

live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

Poleward outflow channel is getting established. Movement (speed up the loop) looks almost due north now.

[RL3AO]

Someone posted about a ship missing near eye. Possibly trying to establish communications.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021653
AF306 1111A JOAQUIN HDOB 57 20151002
164430 2337N 07446W 9122 00291 9430 +239 +191 287018 020 020 001 00
164500 2335N 07445W 9155 00257 9430 +239 +195 290024 025 016 004 03
164530 2334N 07446W 9151 00266 9433 +239 +200 293024 025 /// /// 03
164600 2335N 07447W 9147 00269 9432 +237 +203 297020 023 /// /// 03
164630 2337N 07447W 9146 00266 9428 +240 +206 295013 017 /// /// 03
164700 2338N 07448W 9149 00264 9428 +241 +209 338014 017 /// /// 03
164730 2338N 07449W 9149 00269 9434 +239 +212 344024 027 025 001 00
164800 2338N 07451W 9150 00275 9440 +237 +214 344033 035 032 002 00
164830 2337N 07453W 9151 00282 9450 +235 +216 342041 047 040 003 03
164900 2337N 07454W 9146 00297 9463 +234 +216 345055 057 045 003 03
164930 2336N 07456W 9152 00308 9479 +233 +217 340064 070 /// /// 03
165000 2334N 07456W 9143 00327 9488 +228 +218 328075 078 /// /// 03
165030 2333N 07454W 9145 00316 9478 +226 +219 317068 075 /// /// 03
165100 2334N 07452W 9146 00297 9463 +233 +221 318054 062 /// /// 03
165130 2335N 07452W 9149 00286 9452 +234 +223 324047 050 046 004 03
165200 2336N 07452W 9149 00279 9440 +236 +223 326038 045 044 003 03
165230 2337N 07450W 9145 00269 9429 +240 +224 321029 034 034 004 00
165300 2337N 07448W 9152 00254 9420 +241 +226 322022 028 031 002 00
165330 2337N 07447W 9146 00255 9415 +243 +226 306015 019 025 000 02
165400 2338N 07445W 9151 00246 9412 +243 +227 282010 014 019 001 03
$$
;

This is serious now. PRAYING they locate the ship! Searching for them from about 800 feet above the water in hurricane conditions is dangerous but they are courageous and very important to all of us. Say a prayer!

[SunnyThoughts]

I don't post on here very often and I'm sorry it's sad information, but just received word of a very scary news story and it may explain some of the communication issues with the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft. A US Flagged Containership with 33 persons on board has gone missing. They sent out an alert aprroximately 24 hours ago. According to marinetraffic.com its last position was about 100km north of Gregory Town, Bahamas. The news reported that the hurricane hunter was requested to attempt to locate and establish communications with the vessel, they were unsuccessful. Please keep the El Faro in your thoughts and prayers.

That is just horrible, hopefully they will continue to try and establish contact and do so.

[windnrain]

Flying that low looks bumpy as hell

[LarryWx]

Looks to be moving in an overall northward direction ignoring the wobbles. This is currently on track with the Euro/GFS. It is still too soon to be expecting any east of due north motion.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[EquusStorm]

Wow. Hopefully just communication issues but I also ask why a container ship would be sent basically through the middle of a major hurricane.

[lilybeth]

I don't post on here very often and I'm sorry it's sad information, but just received word of a very scary news story and it may explain some of the communication issues with the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft. A US Flagged Containership with 33 persons on board has gone missing. They sent out an alert aprroximately 24 hours ago. According to marinetraffic.com its last position was about 100km north of Gregory Town, Bahamas. The news reported that the hurricane hunter was requested to attempt to locate and establish communications with the vessel, they were unsuccessful. Please keep the El Faro in your thoughts and prayers.

That is terrible. Here's hoping they find them safe and sound.

[CrazyC83]

Can't do any more for now due to class but needed to show that development.

[Extratropical94]

At operational altidude again

URNT15 KNHC 021703
AF306 1111A JOAQUIN HDOB 58 20151002
165430 2339N 07445W 9145 00254 9412 +246 +230 228002 009 016 000 00
165500 2341N 07444W 9146 00252 9412 +245 +232 088007 009 019 000 03
165530 2342N 07445W 9149 00252 9415 +245 +233 078012 014 017 000 00
165600 2344N 07446W 9152 00251 9416 +248 +235 067020 023 016 001 03
165630 2344N 07447W 9148 00257 9419 +247 +237 061026 027 026 002 03
165700 2344N 07449W 9142 00266 9420 +243 +238 051027 028 028 001 00
165730 2343N 07451W 8959 00431 //// +231 //// 033030 032 028 000 05
165800 2343N 07453W 8582 00801 //// +213 //// 024039 044 /// /// 05
165830 2344N 07454W 8083 01345 //// +191 //// 023049 053 /// /// 05
165900 2345N 07455W 7790 01677 //// +174 //// 026063 067 /// /// 05
165930 2346N 07456W 7520 01991 //// +168 //// 026074 076 /// /// 05
170000 2347N 07457W 7225 02358 //// +156 //// 028082 085 082 002 05
170030 2348N 07458W 7061 02575 //// +150 //// 024091 091 085 003 01
170100 2349N 07459W 6975 02712 //// +136 //// 027095 097 086 001 01
170130 2350N 07500W 6972 02736 //// +134 //// 030099 101 086 002 01
170200 2351N 07501W 6971 02758 //// +141 //// 029101 102 084 003 01
170230 2352N 07502W 6964 02784 9599 +149 //// 029101 103 079 004 01
170300 2353N 07503W 6971 02790 9619 +151 //// 027099 101 083 005 01
170330 2354N 07504W 6967 02814 9652 +143 //// 026097 098 087 008 01
170400 2355N 07505W 6963 02833 9666 +151 +151 028094 097 085 004 00
$$
;

[galaxy401]

Wow. Hopefully just communication issues but I also ask why a container ship would be sent basically through the middle of a major hurricane.

To be fair, when the cargo ship first left it was only a tropical storm.

[Steve]

I have zero faith in this thing going northeast soon. Looking at steering and WV I expect a lot of north and northwest movement.

The trough (circled area) currently over Hudson Bay is going to get forced SE and push back the ridge (black arrow) that has been steering Joaquin opening up the N/NE path out to sea (red arrow).





Agreed. It's essentially a "Saved by Zero" or 11th Hour sigh of relief situation. I don't like the current orientation, but I think that's just because the high to the NE is pushing it that way. At worst, it looks like it could temporarily follow the trail from the NE'er as it links up with a channel into the Carolinas and continues to pump and seed moisture over the SE Coast. Ugh. Lucky for the USA if not for the Bahamas and possibly Bermuda later on.

FWIW, I think I heard yesterday on TWC/Weather Underground that this was the first Category 4 to hit the Bahamas since like the 1930's or something. I was wondering how that is even possible and why don't they get hit every few to several years based on location alone. I realize that not every system makes it to Cat 4. But there are enough instances that I would think they would have been hit more frequently. (NOTE: I don't recall if they specifically mentioned the Central Bahamas or the entire Kingdom, so that could be where I'm off).

[invest man]

The water vapor gif shows a ull to the hurricanes east and to its west. The one to the east looks to be heading quickly to the west. I don't see the escape route today like I saw it yesterday. All this looks very weird

[windnrain]

The water vapor gif shows a ull to the hurricanes east and to its west. The one to the east looks to be heading quickly to the west. I don't see the escape route today like I saw it yesterday. All this looks very weird

I am not sent the escape path either