ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Joaquin getting squeezed

[syfr]

Looks virtually stationary in that loop (which is a fascinating one to watch)

[Weatherwatcher98]

Joaquin getting squeezed

You see his exit Stage right now.

[caneman]

Joaquin getting squeezed

You see his exit Stage right now.

yes, you see it but that gap,is narrowing and pushing closer towards the coast.

[xironman]

I got into a long discussion because I disagreed with a forecaster that "Joaquin is not associated with the current flooding on the east coast". Of course it is, it is help to pull moisture out of the deep tropics that is then made into a firehose by the ULLs

[BensonTCwatcher]

I have been watching that WV loop for a couple days. Mainly to see how the features on the GFS and Euro are verifying. Also because if they handle the low over the SE US wrong or even the riding building in east of "J", it look to me like we could get a more west track. DeltaDog posted this yesterday as well. Today we will see what happens.

[caneman]

That's what I've been saying. I'm going by observations. I think we'll see this trend further west and be a closer call for north carolina.,my opinion only.

[xironman]

The only thing that stands out to me is the Atlantic ULL looks a lot more potent than was depicted on the model maps.

[caneman]

The only thing that stands out to me is the Atlantic ULL looks a lot more potent than was depicted on the model maps.

yep and the nose keeps edging westward.,well see how it plays out

[NDG]

I have been watching that WV loop for a couple days. Mainly to see how the features on the GFS and Euro are verifying. Also because if they handle the low over the SE US wrong or even the riding building in east of "J", it look to me like we could get a more west track. DeltaDog posted this yesterday as well. Today we will see what happens.

There's no reason for the GFS and Euro to handle the ULL over the SE US wrong, it is and has been tracking over land, areas where the NWS launches wx balloons and have been launching extra wx balloons to help the models with it. Now, if it would had been over water it could had maybe been a different story.
It all comes down to the mathematical solutions of how it interacts with Joaquin, the usual not so reliable models are the ones that are showing Joaquin to phase out with the ULL, I wouldn't against the most reliable models for nothing in the world, especially when we are talking that we are within 72-96 hrs if it was to impact the Carolinas.
Now for New England is still up in the air, but even their chances of being impacted by a direct or close hit are coming down.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

BTW, recon is going through the eye of Joaquin as I type this. Looks like it might be a little weaker, too early to tell though.

[SouthDadeFish]

BTW, recon is going through the eye of Joaquin as I type this. Looks like it might be a little weaker, too early to tell though.

124 knot flight level winds found so no weakening yet. Weird that a double wind maximum was found in the SE quadrant but not the NW quadrant.

[NDG]

Highest flight level winds so far, 124 knots, pressure might be about the same from last night or just a little higher:

13030 2301N 07431W 6975 02753 9632 +085 +068 238119 124 099 061 00

[NDG]

BTW, recon is going through the eye of Joaquin as I type this. Looks like it might be a little weaker, too early to tell though.

124 knot flight level winds found so no weakening yet. Weird that a double wind maximum was found in the SE quadrant but not the NW quadrant.

Yeah I had spoke too soon, the bad thing about finding it in the SE quadrant means that Crooked Island has been under the gun all night long, wow, those poor people in that Island, the storm surge has really high.

[tolakram]

big picture IR

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-74&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

[xironman]

From flight level it looks almost stationary from the 5am position.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Agreed I'm not betting against the best models and best mets in the business by any stretch. It's just watching the accuracy of what was predicted. The deterministic vs ensemble etc. The state line of Al and MS is a handy marker to see the center and lower lobe of the low and if it's slipping west. Even with our best models just how these fluids will interact still have a lot of variance in it. I am celebrating that NC and the east coast are spared. Bahamas is just getting hammered. Looking at the error stats on the models and forecast track, this storm is lowering the win percentage a bit, it's been a while the track errors were so high, and it's been a weird year all around. No one should breath easy on the east coast until this starts to move NE

[Weatherwatcher98]

Agreed I'm not betting against the best models and best mets in the business by any stretch. It's just watching the accuracy of what was predicted. The deterministic vs ensemble etc. The state line of Al and MS is a handy marker to see the center and lower lobe of the low and if it's slipping west. Even with our best models just how these fluids will interact still have a lot of variance in it. I am celebrating that NC and the east coast are spared. Bahamas is just getting hammered. Looking at the error stats on the models and forecast track, this storm is lowering the win percentage a bit, it's been a while the track errors were so high, and it's been a weird year all around. No one should breath easy on the east coast until this starts to move NE

Been a very weird year probably in part due to the Strong El Nino.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 74.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF CLARENCE LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

[xironman]

Not to quibble, but the 23.4 looks a touch N.
From the VDM
Center Fix Coordinates: 23°17'N 74°45'W (23.2833N 74.75W)