ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Still moving slowly W.

[Steve]

Sandbar,

I misread. I was talking about the blowup off the coast tonight being 99L (dmax for everything?). Jonathan quoted with a reference to Ida so I missed that. Fwiw the Ida remnants are still spinning sort of in a bend behind the nose of the Ridge fighting down from the ne toward Joaquin. Shows up clearly in the microwave imagery showing preciptable water.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Sandbar,

I misread. I was talking about the blowup off the coast tonight being 99L (dmax for everything?). Jonathan quoted with a reference to Ida so I missed that. Fwiw the Ida remnants are still spinning sort of in a bend behind the nose of the Ridge fighting down from the ne toward Joaquin. Shows up clearly in the microwave imagery showing preciptable water.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

Cool. I thought maybe I was getting too tired, and was just imagining things.

[rickybobby]

2 am update winds 130 and moving west at 3 mph.

[windnrain]

Are we still saying this is not retrograding? I suppose not, but it certainly is over the east coast.

[Cdavis]

I now believe retrograding...... The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cdavis]

Is it just me but if this storm doesn't change course in the next 12 hrs, Florida is going to feel effects?

[bahamaswx]

Don't even need recon to see that he's finally begun moving again, and this time somewhat north of west.

[windnrain]

Euro is shifting west, folks.

[kungfut]

hi. been away all night.
can I just say something... I don't think anyone "knows" where this is going. I really do not. Every single thing has been wrong. The freaking storm wqs supposed to go north but went southwest.
This is a true wild card.

[LarryWx]

This looks like the trough is retrograding...

If you look carefully at the trough imo it is trying to set up a Northwest to Southeast orientation, which is a negative tilt. If that orientation is indeed trying to set-up, U.S. landfall possibility will be back into play. Watch the evolution of the trough very closely tomorrow into Saturday.

What you don't want to see tonight/tomorrow if you don't want a US NC/SC hit is a steady NW movement to commence as that would immediately increase the chance of getting caught in the SE upper low though a N move could still leave the door open for especially NC/VA as per the CMC.

[bahamaswx]

Looks like the eye is directly on top of Deadmans Cay, a fairly well populated town in Long Island, Bahamas.

[tolakram]

live long IR loop, speed it up.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-74&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

Current euro run has this turning just before Long Island, but the previous run had it right over Long Island, turning NW and riding up the Island before turning north. I don't think small errors mean much at this point. If the storm gets west of Long Island that might be significant, or it might not.

[Brent]

East Coast out of the cone:

[Sanibel]

San Salvador Island: Sustained Wind ESE 97mph Gusts 126mph



Joaquin breaking N now.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AdamFirst]

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

The eye of Joaquin has not been apparent in recent infrared imagery.
The last pass of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the center
around 04Z showed indications of a double wind maximum at flight
level, which could indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle is
underway. The last report from the aircraft indicated that the
central pressure still around 935 mb. The initial intensity remains
115 kt pending the arrival of the next aircraft before 12Z. Some
fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 to 24
hours due to eyewall replacement. After that time, gradual weakening
is forecast as the cyclone encounters increasing southwesterly
shear, but Joaquin is expected to remain a powerful hurricane for
the next several days. Faster weakening in shown late in the period
as the cyclone is forecast move over cooler waters and the shear
increases further.

The initial motion estimate is a slow drift toward the northwest, or
315/03, with the hurricane now gaining a bit of latitude based on
recent center fixes. The ridge north of Joaquin will weaken in the
next 12 to 24 hours as a mid/upper-level low moves in from the east,
and the hurricane should begin to move more quickly northward today
and then accelerate northeastward tonight and Saturday. The track
model guidance is in reasonable agreement on this scenario, and the
NHC forecast during the first 2 days is a little to the right of the
previous one, trending toward the latest multi-model consensus.

After that time, there have been some changes in the latest models,
with the GFS trending west from its previous forecast with a track
still offshore but closer to Cape Cod in about 5 days. The ECMWF has
also trended westward this cycle away from Bermuda and now lies
closer to the middle of the guidance suite. The UKMET is now the
eastern-most model, but still shows a track west of Bermuda. The
spread in the guidance at these time ranges appears to be due to
differences in the strength and speed of the westward movement of
the upper-level low passing north of Joaquin in the next 2 to 3
days. The new NHC forecast at days 3 and 4 has been shifted a little
to the east of the previous one and now lies near the latest
consensus aids. At day 5, all of the guidance shows the cyclone
accelerating east-northeastward, and the NHC track reflects this
trend. Given the continued variability in the guidance from cycle to
cycle, further adjustments will likely be needed to the NHC track at
days 3 through 5.

[caneman]

All models have shifted west. Beginning of a trend? I watched the nasa water loop and you can see the ull to its n.e. moving further west so the alley way or escape route is moving west. How far west will it move? Much,further west and we may need to worry about n.c. watch and see. This is all my opinion only.

[abajan]

For those confused as to why the NHC has been calling this a Cat 4 for the last six advisories when the MSW never exceeded 130 mph, here's the explanation (PDF). I'd forgotten about the change myself.

[Nimbus]

Circulation around that huge ULL to the northeast of Joaquin was probably responsible for the disastrous southerly track into the Bahamas. Really was hoping it would end there, but if ridging builds in that narrowing escape route could be more trouble.

[hiflyer]

Circulation around that huge ULL to the northeast of Joaquin was probably responsible for the disastrous southerly track into the Bahamas. Really was hoping it would end there, but if ridging builds in that narrowing escape route could be more trouble.

Agreed...energy already crossing from Joaquin to the storms off South Carolina filling in the gap...and Joaquin becoming egg shaped on a nw-se axis pointing in that direction as well. Interesting.