ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

ADT has a cat 5.

Source and numbers?

I think it was posted a few pages back, 137kt.

Pressure is up, presumably as a result of ERC. I'm thinking this weakens down to a 2 in the short term before re-intensifying tomorrow evening if upper air remains favorable.

[NDG]

Any chance this could still pull an Irene(2011) type track?

There would have to be a massive ridge that would move from the north Atlantic westward towards eastern Canada, IMO.

[NDG]

Recon just found that Joaquin's pressure has risen a little.

Cause it will fluctuate during recycle.

I am just reporting what the recon reports, not saying that it has peaked already.

[smithtim]

I definitely think it is a Cat 5 right now and once the eye gets its walls up and tight it will get close to record strength.

There is Recon out there, and good agreement on low-end Category 4. To have Cat 5, we'd need reliable SFMR over 135 and/or flight level winds at least into the 150s.

While I don't even want to think about all that let's not forget it's over very warm shallow ocean water and if I'm not mistaken aren't the fundamentals of energy transfer very different when shallow hot because theirs not that deeper cold??? Kinda like never ending high octane...

I'm no expert...I know fluid mechanics and theory but again I'm not pro met so maybe someone would be kind enough to chime in on that generalized ideas...


Thank you in advance


And of course thought prayers for people Bahamas...

[Hammy]

Recon only supports 120mph now based on latest pass.

[OuterBanker]

I'm heading home tomorrow. Already a real mess on the OBX and it's going to get a lot worse over the next three days. Ocracoke has already been evacuated and none of has to do with Joaquin. Relying on it going out to sea. Can't even imagine what would happen if it came closer.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 020119
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 37 20151002
011030 2249N 07424W 6963 02598 9383 +142 +100 235029 033 021 003 00
011100 2248N 07423W 6972 02593 9386 +150 +096 233037 041 032 002 00
011130 2246N 07421W 6962 02625 9404 +152 +086 227049 055 047 003 00
011200 2245N 07420W 6969 02635 9425 +150 +091 220060 064 070 006 03
011230 2244N 07419W 6986 02631 9449 +147 +091 221075 078 104 007 03
011300 2243N 07418W 6958 02691 9508 +111 +100 228088 099 127 010 03
011330 2242N 07416W 6963 02707 9546 +103 +096 231103 106 /// /// 03
011400 2240N 07415W 6950 02770 9598 +097 +090 235107 111 106 040 00
011430 2239N 07414W 6980 02771 9643 +093 +085 232109 114 104 041 00
011500 2238N 07413W 6962 02821 9678 +089 +085 232110 112 094 044 00
011530 2237N 07411W 6973 02835 9712 +087 +077 231104 108 094 029 00
011600 2236N 07410W 6967 02868 9727 +099 +072 232107 110 086 012 00
011630 2235N 07409W 6974 02884 9764 +087 +065 229103 107 076 009 03
011700 2233N 07408W 6960 02914 9774 +091 +058 231104 107 068 008 03
011730 2232N 07406W 6970 02912 9800 +084 +058 232102 107 064 010 03
011800 2231N 07405W 6972 02928 9811 +089 +064 234098 100 062 007 03
011830 2230N 07404W 6970 02939 9814 +095 +064 234095 100 061 006 00
011900 2229N 07403W 6960 02959 9829 +091 +062 240091 095 062 005 03
011930 2227N 07401W 6973 02960 9853 +083 +058 239089 094 059 006 00
012000 2226N 07400W 6959 02978 9846 +092 +054 236083 085 055 003 03
$$
;

114 kt FL, 127 kt SFMR (may be suspect) in SE quad. Pressure 937mb in last pass.

[ozonepete]

There should not be a lot of arguing about EWRs. It's a very "fuzzy" process. Although generally speaking the core winds start dropping as the inside eye-wall collapses and then begin to increase as the new one contracts inward, there are many exceptions. Observations from RECON have shown that winds can weaken or stay the same during and after one. And yes, the increase in intensity as the new eye-wall consolidates and contracts can, and usually does, take many hours, despite some exceptions. This has been well documented. So there's no need to argue about what should happen here with Joaquin. We should just observe and learn.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020129
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 38 20151002
012030 2225N 07358W 6974 02954 9851 +088 +052 237085 088 /// /// 03
012100 2223N 07357W 6976 02978 9874 +088 +057 239086 089 053 001 03
012130 2222N 07356W 6963 03007 9890 +085 +058 236083 086 055 002 03
012200 2221N 07354W 6973 03000 9890 +093 +053 237081 082 059 004 00
012230 2220N 07353W 6966 03022 9902 +092 +045 237080 082 056 002 03
012300 2218N 07352W 6974 03012 9896 +099 +042 238079 080 053 005 00
012330 2217N 07350W 6962 03030 9904 +097 +045 243078 079 055 004 03
012400 2216N 07349W 6972 03025 9918 +090 +048 245074 079 055 010 03
012430 2214N 07347W 6965 03038 9936 +077 +057 241075 077 050 028 00
012500 2213N 07346W 6959 03052 9952 +066 +062 235084 087 053 021 03
012530 2212N 07345W 6968 03041 9961 +064 +058 232082 084 053 010 00
012600 2210N 07343W 6973 03043 9946 +082 +047 230077 079 048 008 00
012630 2210N 07343W 6973 03043 9951 +080 +047 233075 080 048 010 00
012700 2208N 07341W 6971 03048 9968 +070 +050 233071 075 048 013 03
012730 2207N 07339W 6972 03051 9962 +078 +048 227074 079 049 011 03
012800 2206N 07338W 6965 03067 9971 +074 +049 223062 069 047 010 00
012830 2206N 07338W 6965 03067 9979 +071 +047 225058 064 044 009 03
012900 2203N 07336W 6970 03060 9974 +077 +047 225054 055 046 010 03
012930 2202N 07334W 6982 03049 9961 +088 +047 233053 055 046 011 00
013000 2201N 07333W 6962 03072 9973 +080 +048 237059 068 049 017 03
$$
;

[NDG]

Still too early to announce the all clear, but the chances of it making a direct landfall on the US east coast continue to go down, tropical models keep shifting eastward, the only ones that still show Joaquin making landfall in the SE US are the not so reliable BAM models.




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[CrazyC83]

Maybe a case to drop it back to 110 kt given the most recent data. A couple SFMR passes support higher but they are likely suspect.

[CrazyC83]

If this goes out to sea, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada may enter the picture as well.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[kat61]

this reminds me of Agnes 72...my first experience with a hurricane..I was in NEPA....the rain, the flood...the stall over already saturated land..

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 020134
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 02/01:09:10Z
B. 22 deg 52 min N
074 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2548 m
D. 94 kt
E. 315 deg 14 nm
F. 030 deg 118 kt
G. 309 deg 26 nm
H. 935 mb
I. 8 C / 3044 m
J. 16 C / 3050 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0911A JOAQUIN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 123 KT 251 / 15 NM 23:06:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 015 / 2 KT
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 314 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 020139
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 39 20151002
013030 2159N 07332W 6974 03061 9986 +070 +055 229067 075 051 043 00
013100 2158N 07330W 6975 03058 9984 +071 +061 225064 070 050 045 00
013130 2157N 07329W 6962 03072 9980 +078 +077 225059 062 043 051 00
013200 2156N 07328W 6972 03064 9984 +084 +084 230064 071 050 026 03
013230 2154N 07326W 6962 03079 9995 +086 +086 235069 074 054 020 03
013300 2153N 07325W 6971 03073 9999 +075 +073 235068 076 050 018 03
013330 2152N 07324W 6950 03101 9991 +075 +056 241062 069 052 011 03
013400 2150N 07322W 6974 03077 9981 +089 +045 235058 061 052 005 03
013430 2149N 07321W 6963 03093 9986 +086 +050 234057 058 052 005 03
013500 2148N 07320W 6973 03082 9990 +085 +057 230052 057 050 004 03
013530 2147N 07318W 6967 03089 9993 +083 +066 233048 053 050 004 00
013600 2145N 07317W 6966 03098 0004 +079 +064 226054 057 050 004 03
013630 2144N 07316W 6965 03102 0001 +085 +043 230054 057 049 004 00
013700 2143N 07314W 6975 03090 0007 +081 +047 228057 057 049 003 00
013730 2142N 07313W 6973 03092 0005 +082 +053 229057 058 046 004 00
013800 2140N 07312W 6968 03104 0004 +086 +052 229057 058 047 006 03
013830 2139N 07311W 6968 03105 0007 +087 +052 226055 056 044 007 00
013900 2138N 07309W 6966 03107 0009 +086 +050 222052 056 043 006 03
013930 2137N 07308W 6968 03103 0012 +085 +051 222050 051 043 005 03
014000 2135N 07307W 6969 03107 0015 +085 +043 215049 051 042 005 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Looking at this WV loop, what is that spin I see directly NE of Joaquin in the orange area heading SW?

Is that a small Upper-Level low that has developed as I don't see where the models are showing it.

Could this feature have any impact on Joaquin and future path?

[NDG]

BTW, 0z SHIPS show shear to be low during the next 24 hrs so any temporary weakening would be caused by upwelling and or EWRs.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

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