ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020040
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 33 20151002
003030 2414N 07617W 6965 03121 9993 +108 +030 019036 037 023 001 03
003100 2415N 07617W 6970 03114 9988 +113 +031 020035 035 /// /// 03
003130 2415N 07615W 6965 03110 9973 +121 +017 025035 036 023 000 00
003200 2414N 07613W 6967 03112 9977 +117 +012 024037 037 024 001 00
003230 2414N 07612W 6967 03106 9983 +112 +015 021036 037 023 001 00
003300 2414N 07612W 6967 03106 9987 +108 +013 020035 036 023 000 00
003330 2413N 07608W 6969 03103 9986 +108 +013 022035 036 022 000 03
003400 2412N 07607W 6967 03105 9988 +106 +014 027033 036 023 001 03
003430 2411N 07605W 6965 03105 9992 +100 +015 028033 033 025 000 03
003500 2410N 07604W 6970 03100 9987 +104 +013 026033 034 025 001 00
003530 2409N 07602W 6967 03103 9979 +110 +011 023034 034 026 000 03
003600 2408N 07601W 6969 03100 9986 +105 +011 020034 035 026 000 03
003630 2406N 07559W 6967 03103 9988 +102 +011 019035 035 025 000 00
003700 2405N 07558W 6966 03099 9983 +104 +011 017036 036 024 000 03
003730 2404N 07557W 6967 03097 9981 +105 +010 018037 037 026 000 03
003800 2403N 07555W 6969 03097 9977 +107 +009 018038 038 026 000 00
003830 2401N 07554W 6968 03096 9977 +109 +011 016038 039 026 000 00
003900 2400N 07552W 6966 03097 9975 +108 +015 016038 038 026 001 03
003930 2359N 07551W 6969 03094 9973 +110 +019 024036 037 026 000 03
004000 2358N 07550W 6970 03094 9971 +112 +019 024035 036 028 001 03
$$
;

[ozonepete]

How can he be undergoing an ERC? I'm not really seeing much of a double wind maxima from the recon reports.

Because the interior eye-wall has collapsed and thus has no ring of wind maximum with it. Thus there is only one, new ring of maximum winds now.

Is this currently completing the cycle then?

Yup. It's pretty much done. Now the new eye will consolidate and tighten around the exact center and as the eye-wall thunderstorms build a solid wall the eye will start clearing out.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2015 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 22:57:49 N Lon : 74:28:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 918.8mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -54.1C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Closeup with island names.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Another closeup with island names.

[ozonepete]

Excuse the simple question, but with the talk about whether or not this gets west of 75°W and whether the models had predicted that it would, does anything change regarding the consensus forecast if Joaquin does get past 75° W?

Thanks

If Joaquin gets further past 75 W there is a better chance it will not turn north as soon and the Midwestern trough will catch it and keep it closer to the coast. In that case the models will shift west again.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through HDOB 33:

[TheStormExpert]

Usually with an ERC comes some weakening.

[Blinhart]

I definitely think it is a Cat 5 right now and once the eye gets its walls up and tight it will get close to record strength.

[northjaxpro]

Excuse the simple question, but with the talk about whether or not this gets west of 75°W and whether the models had predicted that it would, does anything change regarding the consensus forecast if Joaquin does get past 75° W?

Thanks

My feeling is that if Joaquin traverses past 75 degrees Longitude, there were no models having him get past that far west. The ridge that has been steering Joaquin imo has been a bit more stout than many expected and it pushed Joaquin much farther south and west than all the models had anticipated. That lends credence to the idea that the ridge has been underplayed and that Joaquin has reinforced the ridge steering him most of this week. Gatorcane and I discussed this at detail earlier today and I am beginning to think this has been the case all along. The main thing it is doing is delaying the northward turn for an unexpected lengthy time. Eventually, Joaquin will feel the steering flow of the developing cut-off Low over the Southeast U.S. and hopefully get booted out of the Bahamas region sooner hopefully rather than later for those suffering folks. Also, we have to watch closely to hope that the cut-off Low does not develop into an negatively tilted one. If it did that, that would put the possibility of U.S. effects back on the table. An NW to SE oriented negatively titled cut-off Low can possibly pull the tropical cyclone back toward it once Joaquin lifts past the latitude of the base of that tilted trough. This is why I am not ready to sound the all clear with Joaquin with regards to possible impacts along the Mid Atlantic and Noertheast U.S. At least, not for at least another 36 hous or so until we see how the trough finally will evolve.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 020049
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 34 20151002
004030 2356N 07548W 6961 03107 9969 +113 +024 024038 039 029 000 00
004100 2355N 07547W 6970 03096 9969 +112 +023 023035 037 030 000 03
004130 2354N 07546W 6966 03096 9969 +110 +022 027037 037 030 000 03
004200 2353N 07544W 6966 03092 9967 +110 +021 027038 039 030 001 03
004230 2351N 07543W 6967 03091 9963 +110 +019 023038 039 029 001 00
004300 2350N 07541W 6968 03090 9965 +109 +021 021041 043 030 001 00
004330 2349N 07540W 6968 03083 9961 +111 +019 024043 043 031 000 00
004400 2348N 07539W 6967 03086 9954 +115 +018 024044 045 031 000 03
004430 2346N 07537W 6967 03085 9952 +117 +017 027046 047 032 000 00
004500 2345N 07536W 6969 03082 9946 +120 +015 029048 049 031 000 00
004530 2344N 07534W 6967 03081 9945 +119 +018 030049 050 032 001 00
004600 2343N 07533W 6970 03076 9938 +121 +015 030050 050 032 000 03
004630 2341N 07532W 6966 03075 9932 +124 +015 029050 051 033 000 00
004700 2340N 07530W 6967 03073 9927 +125 +016 030050 050 033 001 03
004730 2339N 07529W 6967 03068 9923 +126 +015 027049 050 033 001 00
004800 2338N 07528W 6967 03064 9924 +121 +018 028050 051 034 001 03
004830 2336N 07526W 6970 03059 9924 +120 +020 027052 052 035 001 03
004900 2335N 07525W 6965 03062 9920 +120 +018 027053 054 036 001 03
004930 2334N 07524W 6965 03059 9920 +116 +018 027055 055 036 000 03
005000 2333N 07522W 6966 03051 9911 +120 +020 025054 055 036 000 03
$$
;

[TheStormExpert]

I definitely think it is a Cat 5 right now and once the eye gets its walls up and tight it will get close to record strength.

Say somehow if this were to become a Cat.5 it would be the first major hurricane to obtain that Category status in over 8 years!(Last was Hurricane Felix 2007) That would make this season impressive enough for me! Though I have doubts it becomes a Cat.5.

[NotoSans]

I definitely think it is a Cat 5 right now and once the eye gets its walls up and tight it will get close to record strength.

It's nowhere near cat5. Recon supports borderline cat4 only.

[CrazyC83]

I definitely think it is a Cat 5 right now and once the eye gets its walls up and tight it will get close to record strength.

There is Recon out there, and good agreement on low-end Category 4. To have Cat 5, we'd need reliable SFMR over 135 and/or flight level winds at least into the 150s.

[ozonepete]

Lol, this will not make a cat 5. It doesn't have enough ideal conditions. For one, it is over very shallow water and because it's moving so slowly it has likely already sucked too much heat energy out of the water, i.e. there's not much fuel left so it has to move away from that area to another warm spot in order to intensify any more.

[Blinhart]

I've been seeing recon numbers suggesting over 126 Kt. winds so that would put it up to 145 to 150 mph winds. Because of all the areas that could have higher winds.

[RL3AO]

I definitely think it is a Cat 5 right now and once the eye gets its walls up and tight it will get close to record strength.

Why do you think this?

[RL3AO]

I've been seeing recon numbers suggesting over 120 Kt. winds so that would put it up to 135 to 140 mph winds.

Cat 5 is 140 knots/160 mph.

[floridasun78]

rain start in nassau here webcam from their http://portnassauwebcam.com/

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Usually with an ERC comes some weakening.

You are right. When the eye-wall rep is first completed the winds are initially lower or steady. It is many hours after that that strengthening occurs again.