Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

^ Yes a 500mb low sitting to the west is the pattern for rains. SW flow aloft is a wet signal. For example look at the 500mb low currently in GA and notice the deluge over the Carolinas.

[weatherdude1108]

^ Yes a 500mb low sitting to the west is the pattern for rains. SW flow aloft is a wet signal. For example look at the 500mb low currently in GA and notice the deluge over the Carolinas.

Cool!

[weatherdude1108]

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

REGIONAL RADARS WERE STILL PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTH FLOW ALOFT AS
INDICATED BY THE FWD 18Z RAOB WHICH WAS PERFORMED IN SUPPORT OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THERE WERE NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE
12Z SOUNDING...THE 800 TO 500 MB LAYER WAS NEARLY SATURATED WITH
DRY AIR LOCATED ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LAYER. AS A RESULT...THINK
THAT ANY OF THE RED RIVER RAIN SHOWERS THAT HOLD TOGETHER ON THEIR
WAY SOUTH TOWARDS THE DFW METROPLEX WILL PRODUCE ONLY SPRINKLES AS
MOST OF THE RAINFALL ALOFT EVAPORATES IN DRY AIR BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. KEPT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST FROM THE DFW AREA NORTH TO THE RED RIVER THROUGH SUNSET
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MUCH DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ONGOING MID-LEVEL BASED RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY NEAR THE RED RIVER APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN 850
MB TO 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE MAY ALSO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...
BUT IF THERE IS A TROUGH IT IS TOO SUBTLE TO LOCATE ON AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSUMING THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE LIFT FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS UP
NORTH...WOULD EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE WESTWARD THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH A 10 POP WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE TO
NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEW
POINT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...BRINGING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN BELOW
25 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND THE
FRONT TRANSPORTING HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHEN
COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS
AND DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO
20 PERCENT. OUTDOOR BURNING IS BANNED IN MANY AREAS ANYWAYS DUE TO
THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT MOST OF THE REGION IS IN...HOWEVER ANY
GRASS FIRES MAY QUICKLY BURN OUT OF CONTROL ON FRIDAY...SO IT IS
PROBABLY BEST TO AVOID ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY START A GRASS FIRE.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
REMAIN UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHORT TERM BLOCKING PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALL WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS LONG AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THIS RIDGE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR 80 WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 50S...PROVIDING SOME REALLY NICE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE WITH PLANS OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH AWAY FROM ALASKA OVER THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA COAST
BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
MONDAY. ONCE CLOSED OFF OVER CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THIS UPPER LOW MOVES DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS SEEM TO ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO SLOW DOWN
AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THINK THAT THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER IS VERY
LIKELY TO CARRY OVER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
WILL BE BY TUESDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE RETURNED TO THE SOUTH AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH
MODEL TO MODEL OR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING OF
THIS UPPER LOW...SO HAVE BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE REVISED ONCE THE TIMING OF THIS UPPER
LOW IS BETTER RESOLVED IN LATER FORECASTS. WHENEVER THE LOW MOVES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

CAVANAUGH

[ravyrn]

I think the contest of guessing the date of the first 59F or lower temp in DFW/IAH/KAUS will be a tight race between myself and weatherdude1108.

I think if forecasts are hit, I may win by two points.

[aggiecutter]

NBC 6 Weather ‏@NBC6Weather 4h4 hours ago
Cooling trend began last night and will continue into the weekend. 40s possible over northern edge of the area!!

[Brent]

It's so weird... it's not hot out.

[Ralph's Weather]

NBC 6 Weather ‏@NBC6Weather 4h4 hours ago
Cooling trend began last night and will continue into the weekend. 40s possible over northern edge of the area!!

I am ready to see 40s around here could tonight and likely Saturday.

[dhweather]

DFW records its 5th warmest September on record at 82.7F similar to 2013's 82.4F. This record was held up by mostly lows averaging in the 70s similar to averages in late summer vs early fall

Overall temp 4.7 degrees above average.

[weatherdude1108]

Austin Mabry had its 6th warmest temp on record. Bob Rose was encouraging towards the end of next week.

Looking ahead to next week, southerly winds are forecast to return to the region Tuesday ahead of a large trough of low pressure taking shape over the western US. This trough is forecast to slowly sink south into northern Mexico late next week. Partly cloudy, warmer and more humid weather is forecast next Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures both days should reach near 90-92 degrees. Low temperatures will be in the mid and upper 60s.

The trough is forecast to pull clouds and moisture north into Texas beginning next Thursday. The atmosphere is forecast to trend increasingly unstable which will lead to the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms next Thursday and Friday. Today's forecast data suggests parts of the region could see some significant totals of rain. Cooler temperatures are forecast late next week into next weekend behind a cold front. High temperatures look to trend down to near 80-82 degrees with lows in the 60s.

There are some signs this unstable pattern could linger into next weekend as well. Stay tuned for more details.

Bob

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[weatherdude1108]

I think the contest of guessing the date of the first 59F or lower temp in DFW/IAH/KAUS will be a tight race between myself and weatherdude1108.

I think if forecasts are hit, I may win by two points.

I forgot what my guesses are (?).

[ravyrn]

I think the contest of guessing the date of the first 59F or lower temp in DFW/IAH/KAUS will be a tight race between myself and weatherdude1108.

I think if forecasts are hit, I may win by two points.

I forgot what my guesses are (?).

Mine was: ravyrn- Total points (13 pts)
DFW - 9/26
AUS - 10/13
IAH - 9/27 (13)

Yours was: weatherdude1108- Total points (25 pts)
DFW- 9/28
IAH- 10/9 (25)
KAUS- 10/5

[dhweather]

00Z GFS, gradual warmup, chance of rain on Friday, hopefully.

[Ntxw]

Folks look at the 500mb maps. 582dm heights over Hudson Bay and another ridge over Alaska. A wavetrain of low pressures across the southern tier US with low heights. That is classic El Nino signature warm north cool south. The Carolinas are being swamped with rain. The next region to be cutoff with low pressures will be southern rockies and southern plains. Its coming guys...

I will update contest points tonight after work

[ravyrn]

Wait a second, I think Ntxw may actually wind up being the winner!

[Brent]

It's coming, it hasn't been consistent on exact amounts but it's been all over a big rain setup at the middle/end of next week

[TheProfessor]

It's 55 degrees and a chilly cold rain here.

[Brent]

Are yall ready? #elnino

[dhweather]

It's coming, it hasn't been consistent on exact amounts but it's been all over a big rain setup at the middle/end of next week

RAIN stuff !!!!

[weatherdude1108]

It's coming, it hasn't been consistent on exact amounts but it's been all over a big rain setup at the middle/end of next week

RAIN stuff !!!!