ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pgoss11]

The board posts are already dropping off significantly. Once this turns north, the amount of posts will come to a crawl as people begin to leave...I feel bad for the Bahamas right now though

As soon as the IMBY equation is eliminated most people lose interest on the board but aside from the devastation going on the Bahamas, as a weather fanatic, it is awesome to see such a magnificent storm turn away from the United States. I've thoroughly enjoyed the ride.

[CrazyC83]

It's early, but Recon seems to have found it stabilized - maybe the pressure might drop a bit more though, closer to or just below 930.

[WPBWeather]

The board posts are already dropping off significantly. Once this turns north, the amount of posts will come to a crawl as people begin to leave...I feel bad for the Bahamas right now though

Such is especially true if it is seen the CONUS is all clear...which it definitely is NOT at this time.

CZ: what is your problem? This board is for posts. Stick to Nor Cal weather if you don't like this.

[AutoPenalti]

It's early, but Recon seems to have found it stabilized - maybe the pressure might drop a bit more though, closer to or just below 930.

That could mean that the ERC is happening.

[Blinhart]

I don't know if the US is clear or not, but this system is an extraordinary thing. I feel sorry for the Bahamas and the Cruise ships around the Bahamas. Once this thing starts moving NE at a descent clip I will be happy and relieved. Even then it still might hit Bermuda and mess with those cruise ships. Also all the Cargo ships that would get hit by this monster.

[psyclone]

The board posts are already dropping off significantly. Once this turns north, the amount of posts will come to a crawl as people begin to leave...I feel bad for the Bahamas right now though

They sure are. What a change in 24 hours. clearly there is so much we don't know. Look back at the early forecasts. they were just abysmal. But I never stop watching although I don't post as much. What a fascinating storm Joaquin is.

[NDG]

Bad timing for the recon to have communication problems, right when it was getting ready to penetrate the eye.

[NDG]

It's early, but Recon seems to have found it stabilized - maybe the pressure might drop a bit more though, closer to or just below 930.

Where are you getting the report from, it has not updated in almost 20 minutes now.

[northjaxpro]

The biggest moniker in studying and analyzing weather: NEVER say NEVER!!! Especially concerning analyzing tropical weather and tropical cyclones. These systems have a mind of their own. We are clearly seeing that Joaquin has a mind of his own with a consistent SW motion all week long to this point and still continuing. He will eventually arrive at the point of turning north, but he is surely taking his sweet time doing so. Getting very close to traversing 75 degrees Longitude and burrowing himself right in the heart of the Bahamian Island chain. What a fascinating tropical cyclone this has been for me personally. But, unfortunately a devastating killer storm down there which I know caught many down there by surprise.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 012319
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 25 20151001
231030 2251N 07433W 6973 02579 9362 +159 +091 004038 044 046 004 03
231100 2251N 07432W 6965 02579 9356 +154 +098 003028 034 032 002 00
231130 2251N 07430W 6971 02566 9348 +158 +095 003021 025 022 002 00
231200 2251N 07428W 6955 02585 9357 +144 +094 348013 018 020 003 00
231230 2251N 07426W 6971 02557 9351 +145 +099 329005 008 020 003 00
231300 2252N 07424W 6967 02559 9321 +172 +102 222008 011 017 001 00
231330 2252N 07422W 6965 02560 9311 +187 +072 187017 020 022 000 03
231400 2253N 07420W 6965 02569 9313 +191 +066 175030 035 029 003 00
231430 2254N 07418W 6967 02584 9338 +184 +077 168047 054 030 002 03
231500 2255N 07417W 6970 02593 9355 +185 +078 165070 079 054 002 03
231530 2257N 07415W 6966 02631 9372 +199 +075 160090 093 072 004 03
231600 2258N 07413W 6974 02653 9413 +193 +078 155098 103 092 002 00
231630 2259N 07412W 6950 02720 9467 +177 +073 152109 111 098 002 00
231700 2301N 07411W 6986 02712 9530 +152 +076 147104 107 096 002 00
231730 2302N 07409W 6962 02772 9577 +133 +083 148100 102 094 003 00
231800 2303N 07408W 6961 02803 9630 +112 +089 150096 099 092 004 00
231830 2305N 07407W 6970 02813 9660 +107 +090 154095 096 091 007 00
231900 2306N 07405W 6969 02839 9683 +109 +085 159091 095 089 011 00
231930 2308N 07404W 6961 02866 9717 +097 +080 165099 102 088 014 00
232000 2309N 07402W 6963 02881 9746 +091 +080 162102 104 084 015 00
$$
;

Pressure 931mb. Major hurricane force winds in all directions.

[tropicwatch]

Bad timing for the recon to have communication problems, right when it was getting ready to penetrate the eye.

I noticed that too. Unbelievable

[NDG]

It looks like Joaquin has come to almost a dead stop this afternoon, well short of 75W.

[CrazyC83]

It's early, but Recon seems to have found it stabilized - maybe the pressure might drop a bit more though, closer to or just below 930.

Where are you getting the report from, it has not updated in almost 20 minutes now.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt - Backup site. Sometimes it goes down too, but it had the eyewall pass.

[lilybeth]

San Salvador is still reporting crazy weather. 64 mph winds with gusts up to 85 mph a few minutes ago. Some of these islands have had this going on for 12 plus hours now. They are getting hit hard by Joaquin.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Thats a couple of times now with this storm that we've lost communication
(and as I posted I get the next data set )

[CrazyC83]

Current center seems to be 22.8N 74.4W. Almost stationary right now, maybe wobbled a tad south. Pressure appears to be down to 931.

[ozonepete]

Good evening ozonepete. Want to get your insights on the latest with Joaquin. I have shared some thoughts of my own.

Hi northjax. I just got on here so I haven't seen your comments. Thus mine are given without bias towards or against yours. The key for all of these forecasts as to whether this landfalls on the east coast is when, where and how strongly the Midwestern trough negatively tilts and catches Joaquin, including the possibility that it doesn't catch our hurricane at all, which is what the euro has assumed all along and now the other models are buying. Now you would think that since the extra G-IV samplings and extra east coast balloon samplings have occurred that the models are getting a better handle and that's why they're coming into agreement. But this particular interaction of the trough and Joaquin are so complex and still not even initiated yet that I have come to the conclusion we can't rely on any forecast, including blends, until Joaquin turns north and starts to accelerate. It's only then that the models can really resolve how much Joaquin may get pulled northwestward by the northern side of the trough, if at all. And the logical extension of this logic right now is that the further west Joaquin gets before the turn, and the stronger and deeper that trough reaches southeastward, the more likely that the trough catches this TC and pulls it northwestward.

Finally, when the models pointed to a landfall in the mid-Atlantic for days, everyone assumed it was true. Then the models for the most part had it curving into Hatteras/SE VA yesterday and everyone was fine with it - done deal. Now the models have it going out to sea and everyone assumes they are right again, just because the models agree with the euro. Granted a consensus has developed but I don't see a lot of reasons for high confidence yet. Not until this turns.

[NDG]

Looks like that the lowest pressure they found is near 22.87N & 74.48W

[CrazyC83]

Good evening ozonepete. Want to get your insights on the latest with Joaquin. I have shared some thoughts of my own.

Hi northjax. I just got on here so I haven't seen your comments. Thus mine are given without bias towards or against yours. The key for all of these forecasts as to whether this landfalls on the east coast is when, where and how strongly the Midwestern trough negatively tilts and catches Joaquin, including the possibility that it doesn't catch our hurricane at all, which is what the euro has assumed all along and now the other models are buying. Now you would think that since the extra G-IV samplings and extra east coast balloon samplings have occurred that the models are getting a better handle and that's why they're coming into agreement. But this particular interaction of the trough and Joaquin are so complex and still not even initiated yet that I have come to the conclusion we can't rely on any forecast, including blends, until Joaquin turns north and starts to accelerate. It's only then that the models can really resolve how much Joaquin may get pulled northwestward by the northern side of the trough, if at all. And the logical extension of this logic right now is that the further west Joaquin gets before the turn, and the stronger and deeper that trough reaches southeastward, the more likely that the trough catches this TC and pulls it northwestward.

Finally, when the models pointed to a landfall in the mid-Atlantic for days, everyone assumed it was true. Then the models for the most part had it curving into Hatteras/SE VA yesterday and everyone was fine with it - done deal. Now the models have it going out to sea and everyone assumes they are right again, just because the models agree with the euro. Granted a consensus has developed but I don't see a lot of reasons for high confidence yet. Not until this turns.

I'm not ready to call it final until it becomes obvious - and that may not be until the weekend or early next week. Everyone should be on guard until Joaquin reaches their latitude.

[ozonepete]

Bad timing for the recon to have communication problems, right when it was getting ready to penetrate the eye.

I noticed that too. Unbelievable

At least we know that the data is being captured anyway and we'll see it soon enough.