ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[windnrain]

There is now lightning in the eyewall:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/lightning/ ... IS&loop=On

[AutoPenalti]

I am very surprised at so many righting this thing off based on current model trends. We know that the models swing back and forth and I don't see why that wont continue until Joaquin decides it is time to change direction.

Just my opinion.

Can't argue with a Trough that strong in October.

Trough slowing down.

[Aric Dunn]

it has passed the NHC 00z position as of right now. not a huge deal only 5 hours ahead.

[Bizzles]

Now the gov of NJ issued an SOE for a cane that at best will be 800 miles away. Getting ridiculous and will get people killed when they ignore a real emergency.

The SOE is considering the 70+mph winds, 3-4 inches of rain, and 12 foot seas we are forecast to over the next 24-48 hr which DO NOT include any impact from this storm which would be in addition to...

Also, when he was debating having to make this difficult call that could affect millions he didn't have the last EURO run...so basically...I'm refraining, but stuff it.

[nativefloridian]

For the Atlantic side south Florida posters on here, how are the waves down there? Imagine there has to be some huge surf coming in and lasting for quite a while. Anybody have any videos or links to share?

Pretty calm, beautiful day thanks to the high pressure dome over Joaquin

http://www.ftlauderdalebeachcam.com/

Blue sky, sunny, and breezy.....simply gorgeous day!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[floridasun78]

Trough almost ready date JOAQUIN now over central fl

[AutoPenalti]

Yeah, everywhere along the coast of Florida looks real calm and it's sunny with no cloud in the sky. Today has been a real nice day.

[gatorcane]

any evidence Joaquin maybe pumping up the ridge?

[WYNweather]

Live in Pompano work in Boynton. Nice day winds out of the NE early today very light now in Boynton. I would think we should start seeing waves late tonight or latter. A little worried about a east wind the and surge the tides have been over the seawall he last few days.

For the Atlantic side south Florida posters on here, how are the waves down there? Imagine there has to be some huge surf coming in and lasting for quite a while. Anybody have any videos or links to share?

Pretty calm, beautiful day thanks to the high pressure dome over Joaquin

http://www.ftlauderdalebeachcam.com/

Blue sky, sunny, and breezy.....simply gorgeous day!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

any evidence Joaquin maybe pumping up the ridge?

im sure some.. but not enough..

gulfstream is out there now will know more when its done

[floridasun78]

i see outer cloud of JOAQUIN off south fl over bimini island

[nativefloridian]

any evidence Joaquin maybe pumping up the ridge?

Can I get an explanation on what "pumping up the ridge" means? Thanks

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Bizzles]

any evidence Joaquin maybe pumping up the ridge?

Has to be at least starting soon no?

[windnrain]

Trough is definitely slowing down.

[summersquall]

Nice 24 frame loop showing the overall westward motion particularly in the last 10 frames. Really symmetrical too. Looking at the size of the storm and its seeming westward momentum, would it turn poleward more like a hummer than a porsche? (ie would it take a more westerly/wide turn to the north before hopefully missing additional populations?)

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_CARIBWIDE/animir.html

[NDG]

Over the next few days it will be surfers' paradise across the east coast of FL, high waves with west wind!!
But the same high surf will create dangerous rip currents, stay safe if you go to the beach this weekend.

[NDG]

If Joaquin this afternoon passes 75W by much then you can start questioning the GFS and Euro solutions. IMO.

[Jevo]

Nice 24 frame loop showing the overall westward motion particularly in the last 10 frames. Really symmetrical too. Looking at the size of the storm and its seeming westward momentum, would it turn poleward more like a hummer than a porsche? (ie would it take a more westerly/wide turn to the north before hopefully missing additional populations?)

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_CARIBWIDE/animir.html

Yeah, these things don't turn on a dime they curve around. Which is where my concern for Nassau came into play as a directly landfall possibility

[GoneBabyGone]

If Joaquin this afternoon passes 75W by much then you can start questioning the GFS and Euro solutions. IMO.

Steven DiMartino is beating this drum on his Twitter feed.

Re the OTS solutions:

I am saying trends right now, would argue against that forecast. If this crosses 75 W tonight, these models crashed and burned.

I'm as amateur as they get, and hey, Steven himself may post here and I just don't know, but just relaying what various mets are saying.

[windnrain]

If Joaquin this afternoon passes 75W by much then you can start questioning the GFS and Euro solutions. IMO.

Agreed.

75W would put it to the west, even past the west of the guidance cone.