ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

looks like Joaquin is wobbling back to the SW a bit looking at the latest images coming in.

[drezee]

I cannot imagine the horrible experience if you have been in the eyewall for the last 8 hours...

[Weatherwatcher98]

I am very surprised at so many righting this thing off based on current model trends. We know that the models swing back and forth and I don't see why that wont continue until Joaquin decides it is time to change direction.

Just my opinion.

Can't argue with a Trough that strong in October.

[floridasun78]

good news that g3 on way to see how weather round hurr doing we see new input for forecast Model tonight

[Aric Dunn]

good news that g3 on way to see how weather round hurr doing we see new input for forecast Model tonight

yeah this will give us probably all we need in terms of synoptics and nail down a little more of track.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I am very surprised at so many righting this thing off based on current model trends. We know that the models swing back and forth and I don't see why that wont continue until Joaquin decides it is time to change direction.

Just my opinion.

Also..The two most reliable models have trended East all day as far as I know.

[wxman57]

I am very surprised at so many righting this thing off based on current model trends. We know that the models swing back and forth and I don't see why that wont continue until Joaquin decides it is time to change direction.

Just my opinion.

The models have quite a bit more data now than yesterday. All the additional data have contributed to a steady eastward shift, not just in the deterministic runs but also in the ensembles. That's key. Very few of the 90 GFS, EC, CMC ensembles now have Joaquin striking the East U.S. Cosat. Have to go with the trend, given the better model initialization. Having said that, I am now writing it off. East Coast residents should continue to closely monitor Joaquin.

[Aric Dunn]

THe eye has become a little less ragged and tighter its possible its even stronger since recon left.

[hohnywx]

Here's a change of pace. The 11 AM NHC advisory had it at 22.9N, 74.2W as of 8 PM EDT from the 11 AM starting point of 23.0 N, 73.9 W. As of 2 PM EDT, it is already at 23.0N, 74.2W. So, it moved 0.3 W and 0.0 S...~due west (though these coordinates are rounded). So, it maybe moving a little faster. But, more importantly, it finally may be moving more westerly than the NHC advisory and more westerly than it has done in several days.

If so, it will be interesting to see how this compares to the models' projections for later today and tonight since that possibly could have significant implications on the future track if it veers too far off of the consensus.

Good point LarryWx...I am interested to see this as the Euro has the storm continuing on an almost due south motion for the next 12 hours and that does not appear to be the case.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yeah, those islands must be taking a pounding. Last few frames of the vis loop looks straight west to my eyes, not fast, but still moving. I hope for their sake it speeds up a bit.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I am very surprised at so many righting this thing off based on current model trends. We know that the models swing back and forth and I don't see why that wont continue until Joaquin decides it is time to change direction.

Just my opinion.

The models have quite a bit more data now than yesterday. All the additional data have contributed to a steady eastward shift, not just in the deterministic runs but also in the ensembles. That's key. Very few of the 90 GFS, EC, CMC ensembles now have Joaquin striking the East U.S. Cosat. Have to go with the trend, given the better model initialization. Having said that, I am now writing it off. East Coast residents should continue to closely monitor Joaquin.

Do you agree this has been one of the hardest Storms to forecast Early on?

[tropicwatch]

wxman57: "Having said that, I am now writing it off."

Gonna hold ya to it

[NDG]

Here's a change of pace. The 11 AM NHC advisory had it at 22.9N, 74.2W as of 8 PM EDT from the 11 AM starting point of 23.0 N, 73.9 W. As of 2 PM EDT, it is already at 23.0N, 74.2W. So, it moved 0.3 W and 0.0 S...~due west (though these coordinates are rounded). So, it maybe moving a little faster. But, more importantly, it finally may be moving more westerly than the NHC advisory and more westerly than it has done in several days.

If so, it will be interesting to see how this compares to the models' projections for later today and tonight since that possibly could have significant implications on the future track if it veers too far off of the consensus.

Good point LarryWx...I am interested to see this as the Euro has the storm continuing on an almost due south motion for the next 12 hours and that does not appear to be the case.

Not true, the latest 12z Euro and even last night's Euro forecast it to move WSW after sunrise to eventually westerly during the day today.

[JtSmarts]

wxman57: "Having said that, I am now writing it off."

Gonna hold ya to it

I think he meant "not" instead of now.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

wxman57: "Having said that, I am now writing it off."

Gonna hold ya to it

Based on the rest of his statement, I believe he meant to say, "Having said that, I am NOT writing it off".

[Aric Dunn]

Here's a change of pace. The 11 AM NHC advisory had it at 22.9N, 74.2W as of 8 PM EDT from the 11 AM starting point of 23.0 N, 73.9 W. As of 2 PM EDT, it is already at 23.0N, 74.2W. So, it moved 0.3 W and 0.0 S...~due west (though these coordinates are rounded). So, it maybe moving a little faster. But, more importantly, it finally may be moving more westerly than the NHC advisory and more westerly than it has done in several days.

If so, it will be interesting to see how this compares to the models' projections for later today and tonight since that possibly could have significant implications on the future track if it veers too far off of the consensus.

Good point LarryWx...I am interested to see this as the Euro has the storm continuing on an almost due south motion for the next 12 hours and that does not appear to be the case.

Just has to have a look at the euro again.. it does keep it moving west to wsw for 24 hours till about 12z tomorrow ! brings it well west of long island. though the NHC has it turning in the next few hours.. interesting.

[tropicwatch]

ok he's off the hook.

[Jevo]

For the Atlantic side south Florida posters on here, how are the waves down there? Imagine there has to be some huge surf coming in and lasting for quite a while. Anybody have any videos or links to share?

Pretty calm, beautiful day thanks to the high pressure dome over Joaquin

http://www.ftlauderdalebeachcam.com/

[LarryWx]

Here's a change of pace. The 11 AM NHC advisory had it at 22.9N, 74.2W as of 8 PM EDT from the 11 AM starting point of 23.0 N, 73.9 W. As of 2 PM EDT, it is already at 23.0N, 74.2W. So, it moved 0.3 W and 0.0 S...~due west (though these coordinates are rounded). So, it maybe moving a little faster. But, more importantly, it finally may be moving more westerly than the NHC advisory and more westerly than it has done in several days.

If so, it will be interesting to see how this compares to the models' projections for later today and tonight since that possibly could have significant implications on the future track if it veers too far off of the consensus.

Good point LarryWx...I am interested to see this as the Euro has the storm continuing on an almost due south motion for the next 12 hours and that does not appear to be the case.

Not true, the latest 12z Euro and even last night's Euro forecast it to move WSW after sunrise to eventually westerly during the day today.

This is correct. The 12Z Euro already has it moving westerly. So, it is pretty much following the last two Euros right now.

[caneman]

Jeez, please leave politics out of it ndg.