ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

Furthest south of last 12 NHC tracks in degrees north:

27.5
26.7
26.6
26.0
24.8
24.8
24.7
24.1
23.9
23.5
23.1
22.9

Any more southward adjustments coming or is this finally it? I think 22.9 may very well be close to it looking at latest trends. We'll see.

[windnrain]

NHC track shows no westward motion. If it keeps heading west, this track will need adjusting

[WPBWeather]

Can someone put up 2pm. He's a Cat 4 now.

[NC George]

Okay. I have what may be a stupid question. Lets say that the current GFS is correct and it doesn't actually HIT the east coast near the Carolinas or Virginia. Will the rain and storm surge still be bad enough in Virginia Beach that my daughter and grandchildren should evacuate?

it's still too soon to attempt to nail down those types of specifics. They'll just need to continue to monitor updates from the NHC, NWS and emergency management.

I'll throw in that the term VA Beach covers a very large area, and without knowing more specifically where your relatives are, it's really hard for anyone to make that guess now.

[Jevo]

At current motion how does this not hit Nassau square on which is WNW/NW of its current location. Take in account to the turn it may slip between Andros and Nassau and make a run a Freeport bringing it 50 Miles from WPB.. Just a thought while looking at a map

[BobHarlem]

If the 12z euro is right, this thing will plod along to Long Island in the Bahmas through tomorrow morning, which is a really long time to withstand cat 4 winds (16-20 hours of it?). I don't think the islands there will be a pretty sight once this moves out. Rum Cay, San Salvador, Crooked Island and Long Island look to get the worst of it.

[kungfut]

I know where Eleuthera is and have family there. Anyone who knows more than me can tell me if that will be a direct hit?

[NDG]

At current motion how does this not hit Nassau square on which is WNW/NW of its current location. Take in account to the turn it may slip between Andros and Nassau and make a run a Freeport bringing it 50 Miles from WPB.. Just a thought while looking at a map

It cannot go that much further west because the trough over the SE US is beginning to weaken the narrow ridge which has been pushing it to the SSW and now WSW.

[tropicwatch]

Latest advisory bumped the intensity to 115 kt

...JOAQUIN BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...

2:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 1
Location: 23.0°N 74.2°W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 936 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

I am kind of surprised they kept the SW motion and not make it WSW.

[NDG]

Latest advisory bumped the intensity to 115 kt

...JOAQUIN BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...

2:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 1
Location: 23.0°N 74.2°W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 936 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

I am kind of surprised they kept the SW motion and not make it WSW.

They go by the average overall movement over a longer period of time, most times.

[tropicwatch]

Talk about your worst case scenarios. Slow moving intensifying major hurricane over the Bahamas. Wow.

[BobHarlem]

Crooked Island video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cak3aSSLY4w

Same area a few hours before the first video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R03uScBCwgA

[Weatherwatcher98]

Talk about your worst case scenarios. Slow moving intensifying major hurricane over the Bahamas. Wow.

Horrible. I think their building codes are very good though. That won't help with the flooding though

[NDG]

Crooked Island video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cak3aSSLY4w

Wow, poor people, may God keep them safe. Unbelievable how Paradise can go into a living hell with a Major Hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

IT had better start turning in the next few hours or it will be approaching much more populated islands.

[Macrocane]

Bahamas has experienced strong hurricanes before but not for this long, this thing is almost stationary since last night.

By the way, the outflow is beautiful.

[idaknowman]

It does appear the eastward movement is diminishing, primarily towards northwest Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

On the water vapor loop the trough is retrograding if you look around coastal Georgia. (bending back to the west).
Does anyone know how far south the trouph axis was supposed to get over the SE US? Its awfully far south for what I was expecting.

It definitely looks like the eastward movement has slowed down the past 6 hours.

[Frank2]

On the CIMMS loop the eye is a bit hard to discern, but it seems to be exhibiting a looping motion...

[bahamaswx]

IT had better start turning in the next few hours or it will be approaching much more populated islands.

Indeed. Next up is Long Island and Great Exuma, which still aren't heavily populated, but are probably an order of magnitude up in population over Crooked Island. And then again for the islands north of there.

[terstorm1012]

Just watching and waiting now for the next 12 hours to see which ULL picks Joaquin up. Models are useful here but it's time (for me) for real-time weather watching.