ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Time: 16:46:30Z
Coordinates: 23.017N 74.083W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,606 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 935.2 mb (27.62 inHg)

Still looks like wsw movement.

[Sanibel]

Church Grove on Crooked Island reporting 111 mph winds with gusts to 144!

Joaquin is a nasty customer. That location is over 10 miles from the center. Probably 15.


That settlement is sheltered. Crooked Island Lodge is right on the exposed north shore and must be getting hammered.


San Salvador is in the predicted path.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011702
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 54 20151001
165300 2310N 07423W 6953 02770 9562 +141 +141 033106 107 097 016 00
165330 2311N 07424W 6971 02777 9591 +137 +137 033107 108 094 010 00
165400 2312N 07425W 6961 02814 9610 +139 +124 031104 108 086 011 00
165430 2313N 07426W 6972 02821 9631 +143 +108 028100 102 084 008 00
165500 2314N 07427W 6975 02839 9668 +128 +122 027098 100 081 009 00
165530 2315N 07428W 6961 02871 9691 +122 +116 026095 096 079 007 00
165600 2316N 07429W 6973 02875 9711 +122 +107 029093 094 078 008 00
165630 2317N 07430W 6963 02899 9726 +120 +112 031090 092 076 008 00
165700 2318N 07431W 6973 02906 9771 +113 +113 029097 102 074 011 00
165730 2319N 07432W 6964 02924 9790 +106 +106 027102 103 072 015 00
165800 2319N 07432W 6964 02924 9801 +102 +102 027102 104 067 014 00
165830 2321N 07434W 6968 02910 9787 +104 +104 029098 101 064 013 03
165900 2322N 07435W 6878 03017 9781 +093 //// 032098 100 062 014 05
165930 2323N 07437W 6796 03131 9815 +091 +091 036093 097 060 017 03
170000 2324N 07439W 6722 03233 9821 +087 +087 041093 094 058 020 03
170030 2325N 07441W 6605 03395 9821 +083 +083 040087 094 056 018 03
170100 2326N 07443W 6475 03567 9823 +075 +075 041089 091 053 012 00
170130 2327N 07445W 6364 03721 9825 +063 +050 044092 094 049 009 00
170200 2328N 07447W 6249 03881 9830 +058 +038 045083 088 048 008 00
170230 2329N 07449W 6082 04107 9835 +046 +030 045080 083 047 008 00
$$
;

Wind field expanding. An ERC may be about to start.

[cfltrib]

Looks like the eye has been moving due west for the past 3 hours:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[drezee]

Based on Sat and Recon trends...I am willing to bet a Coca-Cola that it will miss the 0z point to the NW. Looks like it will be NW of 12Z GFS and yesterday's 0Z Euro by 0z tonight...just an observation...

12H 02/0000Z 22.9N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Last night's Euro forecasted Joaquin to be at 23.1N & 74.3W at 15z, so the forecast was just a little west of the last fix from the recon at 15:20z

Agree, but I am talking about the 0z position in 9 hours...Euro still going SW for 9-12 more hours...

[tolakram]

Live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

Further out
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[Weatherwatcher98]

For Anyone who thinks this could effect Florida. 0% Chance of that happening.

000
FXUS62 KTBW 011346
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
946 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING HURRICANE JOAQUIN
SPINNING NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE A DRY AIRMASS IS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS...WITH THE KTBW
12Z SOUNDING SHOWING 1.76 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE
NATURE COAST.

]OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A STRONG TROUGH
PUSHING INTO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HELPING TO STEER HURRICANE JOAQUIN NORTH AND AWAY FROM
FLORIDA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES AFTER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE COAST. OVER THE INTERIOR...KLAL IS THE
ONLY TAF SITE THAT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARING OUT BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE JOAQUIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL START TO TURN TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS JOAQUIN LIFTS NORTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS A TROUGH DESCENDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

[Frank2]

As someone said, the turn has begun - it's been on a SW heading for the past 2 days, and now W, and hopefully very soon, NW and then N or NE. When we are driving the car and making a turn, it means passing several directions on the compass before we arrive at the one we want...

Frank

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011712
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 55 20151001
170300 2330N 07451W 5907 04362 9843 +036 +019 038076 078 045 006 00
170330 2331N 07453W 5764 04567 9838 +029 +006 038076 079 041 006 00
170400 2331N 07455W 5591 04820 9846 +015 +002 034070 074 041 006 00
170430 2332N 07458W 5427 05063 0098 -000 -009 029069 071 041 007 00
170500 2333N 07500W 5269 05306 0121 -017 -026 028070 073 041 006 00
170530 2334N 07502W 5128 05528 0142 -024 -044 028070 073 038 006 03
170600 2335N 07504W 5009 05720 0160 -035 -054 033070 071 038 006 00
170630 2336N 07506W 4914 05875 0175 -044 -064 037070 071 037 007 00
170700 2337N 07508W 4824 06026 0190 -050 -076 041070 072 038 007 00
170730 2338N 07510W 4733 06180 0204 -049 -096 042071 073 038 005 00
170800 2339N 07513W 4634 06347 0218 -067 -098 042064 068 038 005 00
170830 2340N 07515W 4542 06507 0233 -074 -109 041065 067 038 004 00
170900 2341N 07517W 4532 06532 0242 -086 -103 041066 067 039 005 03
170930 2342N 07520W 4574 06468 0244 -075 -111 041067 068 050 003 03
171000 2343N 07523W 4593 06442 0247 -073 -104 040065 067 039 004 00
171030 2345N 07525W 4607 06422 0249 -076 -095 041064 067 036 005 00
171100 2346N 07528W 4630 06385 0250 -072 -094 042063 064 034 005 00
171130 2347N 07530W 4657 06341 0246 -075 -098 034059 061 032 005 00
171200 2348N 07533W 4659 06330 0244 -066 -110 039058 060 030 006 00
171230 2349N 07535W 4655 06345 0247 -067 -101 035056 057 030 005 00
$$
;

Mission over.

[EquusStorm]

If the 935 is accurate, that's the lowest pressure in an Atlantic storm since Igor in 2010 (the strongest storms in 2011, 2012, and 2014 were apparently tied at 940) That was half a decade ago. Granted, not sure how many of those had recon, but still.

[NotoSans]

Center dropsonde suggests pressure of 936 mb

000
URNT12 KNHC 011712
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 01/16:47:40Z
B. 23 deg 02 min N
074 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2567 m
D. 114 kt
E. 132 deg 11 nm
F. 235 deg 111 kt
G. 132 deg 15 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 12 C / 3051 m
J. 20 C / 3043 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN WNW
M. C24
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF301 0711A JOAQUIN OB 24
MAX FL WIND 120 KT 177 / 9 NM 15:24:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 330 / 14 KT
;

[TheProfessor]

Could this storm get so far west that it missed both the cut off low and the possible door out to sea? It looks like it would need to go North in order to feel the out to sea tugging.

[CrazyC83]

If the 935 is accurate, that's the lowest pressure in an Atlantic storm since Igor in 2010 (the strongest storms in 2011, 2012, and 2014 were apparently tied at 940) That was half a decade ago. Granted, not sure how many of those had recon, but still.

2011: Ophelia's 940 was a Dvorak estimate without Recon (Irene was lowest with Recon at 942)
2012: Sandy's 940 was confirmed by Recon
2014: Gonzalo's 940 was confirmed by Recon

If this is confirmed, I believe the lowest pressure that Recon found in Igor was 937 (the 924 was a Dvorak estimate). Earl in 2010 had a 927 pressure confirmed by Recon though.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the eastward progression of the front is slowing down.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[gatorcane]

Joaquin looks to be moving due west now....

[windnrain]

Looks like the eastward progression of the front is slowing down.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

What implications does this have?

[CrazyC83]

Down to 936 now.

[NotoSans]

Recent aircraft reported a central pressure of 936 mb. Winds (particularly the flight-level ones) not fully supporting a cat 4 though. Wonder if the NHC will upgrade it to a cat 4 at the coming advisory.

[CrazyC83]

Recent aircraft reported a central pressure of 936 mb. Winds (particularly the flight-level ones) not fully supporting a cat 4 though. Wonder if the NHC will upgrade it to a cat 4 at the coming advisory.

The FL winds support 110 kt, and the SFMR are questionable, so I would leave it at 110 kt for now unless surface data suggests higher. Maybe 115 kt but that's it.

[drezee]

Vortex just sad 937 mb and movement is just S of due west...114kt estimated winds