ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jevo]

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[Stormcenter]

Excellent example of how sometimes models can have it all wrong. I'm not saying this is the case here. IMO

This reminds me a lot of Mitch in 1998...was supposed to head into the Gulf but instead went south into Central America. All the models had that wrong.

[TheStormExpert]

11am advisory track. Not much change yet.

[windnrain]

NHC not going with OTS yet

[Blown Away]

Pretty easy to see why Joaquin won't get left behind... That trough is digging fast...

[AutoPenalti]

Is it possible that a trough can retreat back because of a hurricane or is that not possible?

[OuterBanker]

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Actually, 11am has shifted east a bit. Won't be long before off the conus completely.

[drezee]

What is going on with Recon? They did a loop before the eye...

[Frank P]

Well on the latest sat loops it sure looks to be stationary with perhaps a tiny hint of a west or wnw motion... my untrained non professional opinion only... fwiw... and that is not much I might add...

[BobHarlem]

Actually, 11am has shifted east a bit. Won't be long before off the conus completely.

What's with the rash of "definitive" statements about a system that's basically stalled and consistantly slipping south of the forecast (even the Euro)? Erika still is fresh in my mind.

[psyclone]

NHC not going with OTS yet

Not yet but they don't lurch around quickly and there's no need to. If they tilt a bit more with each 6 hour cycle it will get there (of course it could always go back west too). This is what I love about the NHC. It's not just their met excellence but their temperament which to me is every bit as valuable. Take a look at the difference in the track for places like the outerbanks and SE VA now VS this time yesterday. it's the difference between a disaster and a brush. Were I up there I'd still be on pins and needles but I'd be very heartened by the trends. This is why I don't get too worked up by long term forecasts...just too much uncertainty. it's hard to stay patient and not freak out but it frequently pays dividends. Let's hope the positive trends recently established remain intact for US interests and keep our Bahamian friends in mind...they're taking a brutal beating.

[Steve H.]

Actually the front is front is forecast to back to back to the nw in a day or so.

[ozonepete]

All hail the European! Apperently it has scored as the winner again. Now feeling better about an out to sea scenario. The nor'easter is another story.

You really need to have the disclaimer on posts like this. It can confuse new people to the boards.

Exactly!

[AutoPenalti]

Actually the front is front is forecast to back to back to the nw in a day or so.

If the front is set to forecast to retreat to the NW and the ridge is building in then all I can say is "oh sh*t".

[seatrump]

Finally a TS Warning in the Turks and Caicos. We've been having those conditions for the last 6 hours+ already. Nothing like being on the ball.... I guess I should put up some shutters - wait, too late.

[emeraldislenc]

what does that imply?

[NotoSans]

Recon reported an extrapolated pressure of 935.1 mb. Joaquin is obviously deepening.

[NotoSans]

After performing loops, the aircraft finally decided to go into the eye. Extrapolated pressure of 935.1 mb reported.



000
URNT15 KNHC 011522
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 44 20151001
151300 2327N 07406W 6973 02870 9692 +133 +114 073091 092 072 009 03
151330 2325N 07406W 6966 02857 9676 +128 +114 071095 097 078 006 00
151400 2324N 07405W 6967 02834 9639 +136 +127 072101 103 079 007 00
151430 2322N 07405W 6963 02810 9601 +146 +122 070105 106 083 007 00
151500 2320N 07404W 6971 02775 9571 +146 +129 069109 110 086 008 00
151530 2319N 07403W 6958 02758 9537 +145 +131 070113 114 089 010 00
151600 2317N 07403W 6968 02707 9521 +139 +139 069109 114 088 011 00
151630 2316N 07402W 6963 02678 9473 +146 +143 069091 105 086 009 00
151700 2314N 07402W 6970 02643 9417 +162 +132 074069 083 080 004 03
151730 2313N 07401W 6962 02636 9396 +165 +126 074055 063 055 005 00
151800 2311N 07401W 6963 02625 9381 +171 +118 077041 049 038 004 03
151830 2309N 07400W 6965 02615 9364 +184 +111 084029 036 /// /// 03
151900 2307N 07400W 6963 02615 9351 +193 +104 074017 024 017 005 03
151930 2306N 07359W 6959 02617 9357 +186 +110 036011 015 022 004 03
152000 2304N 07359W 6966 02612 9359 +187 +112 307010 013 018 004 03
152030 2302N 07358W 6967 02617 9357 +200 +088 253014 016 018 005 03
152100 2300N 07359W 6957 02631 9358 +199 +096 269021 025 /// /// 03
152130 2259N 07400W 6963 02627 9370 +188 +113 298028 030 /// /// 03
152200 2258N 07402W 6964 02634 9393 +171 +124 304039 044 043 006 00
152230 2257N 07403W 6963 02648 9408 +166 +133 306053 060 066 007 00
$$
;

[Texashawk]

I asked this earlier but it may have gotten lost. Is it possible for a very large, deep hurricane to more or less 'make its own rules' with regard to local steering mechanisms? I thought I remembered Dr. Neil Frank (former NHC director who worked for the CBS affiliate in Houston for many years after) talking about this phenomenon during Ike, and I think Gilbert as well back in the day.

-Steve

[TheStormExpert]

Even over here where I'm located on the East Coast of FL pressure is currently at 1003mb, interesting!