ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[emeraldislenc]

The new model runs are really trending to the right. It may be a good sign that the storm may go out to sea. Not a prediction but just picking up on the trend.

[txwatcher91]

For the first time today Joaquin is expanding in all quadrants, especially now the northern half and wrapping convection around. Outflow is establishing on the north side and the eye should begin clearing soon.

[Hammy]

I'm hoping if the Euro plays out that Joaquin stays a major hurricane for several days as it heads out to sea (as long as it misses Bermuda) as it would add a ton of ACE, possibly nearly doubling it depending on how long it lasts.

Also, when will we get the next recon flight?

[wxmann_91]

This storm's track brings memories of 2008 Ike's crazy SW dive when it was supposed to move wnw. Don't think this will be a repeat but it might force the models to shift the track and timing significantly IMO

Yep. Comparing this to Ike makes me wonder if there's a trend in models insisting that southerly motion will stop quite a bit sooner that it actually does. Ike continued to dive WSW for much longer than was forecast. But I can't think of any other examples---storms moving away from the poles are unusual.

There are actually many examples out there of long southern dives which are underforecast/unforeseen by models. Off the top of my head, aside from Ike in '08:

Karl 2010
Gustav 2008
Hanna 2008
Wilma 2005
Stan 2005
Katrina 2005
Mitch 1998

[TimeZone]

Really exploding right now.

I wonder if the eye will ever make another appearance .... It's been covered for quite some time now.

[northjaxpro]

Really exploding right now.

I wonder if the eye will ever make another appearance .... It's been covered for quite some time now.

I think you will see the eye clear out later today.

[Hammy]

San Salvador seems to be close to the western eyewall as the deepest convection is now wrapping all the way around. I'm wondering if this may be a Cat 4 by the time the plane arrives later.

[hurricanedude]

when does the next gfs run

[brunota2003]

The new model runs are really trending to the right. It may be a good sign that the storm may go out to sea. Not a prediction but just picking up on the trend.

Most of the GFS ensembles are into VA/NC area. The main one people were posting was on the right side of the ensemble guidance. I will be interested to see what the Euro ensemble looks like as well, since quite a few of those made landfall/very close to land earlier (versus the "run" showing out to sea).

[hurricaneCW]

Joaquin is starting to look very pretty or "handsome" with some nice outflow developing and deepening convection around the core. If a nice eye pops out, which I think will then I wouldn't be shocked to see a 150-155mph storm.

The Bahamas are in for a brutal beating even moreso than they've seen already.

[LarryWx]

Furthest south of last 10 NHC tracks in degrees north:

27.5
26.7
26.6
26.0
24.8
24.8
24.7
24.1
23.9
23.5

And it is already down to 23.5 at 2 AM. So, expect another adjustment south at 5 AM.

[northjaxpro]

San Salvador seems to be close to the western eyewall as the deepest convection is now wrapping all the way around. I'm wondering if this may be a Cat 4 by the time the plane arrives later.

I am headed for bed, but when I get up in the morning, Joaquin will be an extremely dangerous Cat 4 tropical cyclone imo. You can't ask for better conditions than what Joaquin has to feed on right now. It is not beyond the realm of possibility it could reach briefly Cat 5 strength before finally pulling out of the Bahamas on Friday. Man, the Central Bahamas region is going to really take a serious beating with Joaquin and they potentially may receive devastating impacts. My prayers to all down in the Bahamas region.

[bahamaswx]

I don't think I've ever seen a cat 4 without a completely clear (although perhaps ragged) eye visible on IR. He's still got some work to do.

[Hammy]

I don't think I've ever seen a cat 4 without a completely clear (although perhaps ragged) eye visible on IR. He's still got some work to do.

I don't think I've ever seen anything move southwest like this for this long either. Certainly a bizarre storm all the way around.

when does the next gfs run

5:30 EDT. NAM runs in about an hour or so and can sometimes be an indicator.

[LarryWx]

Furthest south of last 10 NHC tracks in degrees north:

27.5
26.7
26.6
26.0
24.8
24.8
24.7
24.1
23.9
23.5

And it is already down to 23.5 at 2 AM. So, expect another adjustment south at 5 AM.

1) I'm wondering about this post I just made. It clearly looked like it moved SW for a couple of hours after the 11 PM NHC update. The 2 AM NHC position agreed. However, unless I'm being deceived or it is just temporary, the satellite loops suggest to me like it may FINALLY be about to halt the SW movement. Anyone else seeing this? So, if so, I may be wrong about another southward adjustment.

2) Anyone think that upwelling may weaken this a notch temporarily while moving very slowly down there? Or is heat content high enough to not allow that?

[brunota2003]

I think I see the southerly movement coming to an end as well, looks like it hasn't really gone anywhere the last couple frames (maybe slightly WSW). But could also be the eye trying to reemerge.

[brunota2003]

That is a nice loop, where you can clearly see the N/NE flow rapidly approaching. Look north of the hurricane and you can see westerly flow across most of the N Atlantic, going to SW near the coast/northern VA. Interesting stuff...

[Blizzard96x]

Furthest south of last 10 NHC tracks in degrees north:

27.5
26.7
26.6
26.0
24.8
24.8
24.7
24.1
23.9
23.5

And it is already down to 23.5 at 2 AM. So, expect another adjustment south at 5 AM.

1) I'm wondering about this post I just made. It clearly looked like it moved SW for a couple of hours after the 11 PM NHC update. The 2 AM NHC position agreed. However, unless I'm being deceived or it is just temporary, the satellite loops suggest to me like it may FINALLY be about to halt the SW movement. Anyone else seeing this? So, if so, I may be wrong about another southward adjustment.

I was just about to post the same thing myself. It really doesn't look like he is moving much further south! This was a key difference between the ECMWF model and the other models in the 00z suite. The ones that kept the Hurricane slightly north of the islands, similar to where it is now all made landfall (GFS, CMC, HWRF, GFDL)

Here is the ECMWF


Here is current movement
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... color=gray

Now, granted, we still have 24 hours... but to me it clearly isnt moving SW like the Euro suggests.

[Hurrilurker]

It looks to me like the storm has also grown a significant amount in just the last few hours.

00:15 UTC


07:15 UTC

[Extratropical94]

Mission 07 has just started as the USAF aircraft is departing from Keesler AFB.