ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[stormlover2013]

Big joe@BigJoeBastardi: GFS to me, unless ECMWF shifts TOWARD IT means the escape idea of the ECMWF is likely to win out. GFS starting to adjust toward ECMWF

[Hurricaneman]

The HWRF is rediculus as it deepens this to 918MB at 33hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=228

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here's another thing I just noticed in looking at this GFS run and the last Euro run.

The main culprit that appears to be keeping Joaquin from going out to sea is a ridge of high pressure ridge to the northeast. Both models appear to be trying to break that ridge down one way or another. However, at the beginning of this GFS run, and at the beginning of the last Euro run, there is a ridge of high pressure over Canada. The GFS takes that ridge and slides it southeast right in time to block Joaquin from going out to sea. However, the Euro's last run tends to build that ridge south over the East Coast, which would be the block keeping it from making landfall.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=185

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=122

Maybe this is another variable worth keeping an eye on?

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is very important that we realize, this is one run, and not necessarily a trend or the beginning of one. Yes, this is a very slightly encouraging sign towards a scenario seeing this re-curve out to sea. And the Euro has been reliable for a long time, despite not doing so well this year as a whole. Maybe what we are seeing is that this model can pick up synoptics in the short-range, but isn't doing as well in the long-range for the most part.

The GFS still shows the cutoff low over the South capturing Joaquin. What I'd like to see before I say this won't hit the coast is a trend that says this is very unlikely to do so, allowing this storm to escape out to sea. Therefore, I say this run is not completely a start in that regard. And one must also consider, was this a bad run? Will we see this shift back to the south, or will this continue?

So many questions still to be answered. I still think this makes landfall and causes a lot of havoc.

-Andrew92

IF that 00Z GFS is reasonable, I worry the ridge to the north opens a hole and sends it northward and inland...it looks to be weakening there (down to 1020 from 1038)

[LarryWx]

Is the 0Z CMC running real slow?

[windnrain]

This is the GFS run in motion:

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CQNHY3HWwAADe6Q.mp4

[Alyono]

CMC into Hatteras

Before we discount this too much, it WAS the only one that showed a significant TC impact on the Bahamas for a while from this

[emeraldislenc]

According to the models the threat to NC is not as great?

[Alyono]

HWRF into NC

[Andrew92]

Alyono (EDIT: or any pro met who sees this, he was online and had just posted at the time), would appreciate your input on my previous findings about the ridge over Canada. Latest GFS seems to build this southeast, which would block Joaquin from going out to sea. But the 12Z Euro built the ridge over the coast, protecting that area. What do you think?

-Andrew92

[Hurricaneman]

HWRF into NC

seems as though we may have 3 camps for this system

camp 1 way out to sea: Euro

camp 2 near miss or NEUS landfall: UKMET, GFS

Camp 3 Mid Atlanic to Carolinas landfall: Canadian, HWRF

which camp wins we better hope its camp 1 or there could be significant damage somewhere

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[wxmann_91]

According to the models the threat to NC is not as great?

No, the takeaway from the increased spread in the 0Z suite is that everyone from SC to Nova Scotia could still be under the gun.

[LarryWx]

According to the models the threat to NC is not as great?

No, the takeaway from the increased spread in the 0Z suite is that everyone from SC to Nova Scotia could still be under the gun.

Pending the 0Z King, I'd say the threat to SC has diminished for a direct hit with the non-NAM 0Z consensus. For the first 0Z/12Z run time in a while, the consensus didn't shift SW and instead shifted back NE.

[Alyono]

GFDL also into NC, and with a pressure of around 935mb

[windnrain]

Why is the GFS so east of its ensemble?

[ROCK]

The EURO tonight should put an end to the uncertainty...IMO

[Hurricaneman]

The EURO tonight should put an end to the uncertainty...IMO

either that or pull their hair out

[windnrain]

Lol, what if the Euro shows a NC hit?

[Hurricaneman]

Lol, what if the Euro shows a NC hit?

then it would be the biggest fail in the model's history

[windnrain]

https://twitter.com/ECMWF_Winning/statu ... 9472829440

Hahaha