ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[blp]

It has the cut off low stronger similar to Euro. I think this is one step in moving closer to the Euro.

[tolakram]

This is not full res so surface pressure is too high.

[windnrain]

Watch the model turn it back around and hit NC for good measure lmao.

It... Hits NYC, comes back and hits Jersey, Hits NYC again, then just says hell... lets hit Boston too.

[BensonTCwatcher]

what would be nuts is big Euro Shift west...

[tolakram]

full rez has 943mb a few frames before landfall.

[stormlover2013]

Now models prob won't seems to me we are starting to get a consensus with euro

[windnrain]

Well...

Now time to wait on the Euro.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is very important that we realize, this is one run, and not necessarily a trend or the beginning of one. Yes, this is a very slightly encouraging sign towards a scenario seeing this re-curve out to sea. And the Euro has been reliable for a long time, despite not doing so well this year as a whole. Maybe what we are seeing is that this model can pick up synoptics in the short-range, but isn't doing as well in the long-range for the most part.

The GFS still shows the cutoff low over the South capturing Joaquin. What I'd like to see before I say this won't hit the coast is a trend that says this is very unlikely to do so, allowing this storm to escape out to sea. Therefore, I say this run is not completely a start in that regard. And one must also consider, was this a bad run? Will we see this shift back to the south, or will this continue?

So many questions still to be answered. I still think this makes landfall and causes a lot of havoc.

-Andrew92

[Alyono]

UKMET is now about 150 miles SE of Cape Cod with a landfall near Halifax

[northjaxpro]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is very important that we realize, this is one run, and not necessarily a trend or the beginning of one. Yes, this is a very slightly encouraging sign towards a scenario seeing this re-curve out to sea. And the Euro has been reliable for a long time, despite not doing so well this year as a whole. Maybe what we are seeing is that this model can pick up synoptics in the short-range, but isn't doing as well in the long-range for the most part.

The GFS still shows the cutoff low over the South capturing Joaquin. What I'd like to see before I say this won't hit the coast is a trend that says this is very unlikely to do so, allowing this storm to escape out to sea. Therefore, I say this run is not completely a start in that regard. And one must also consider, was this a bad run? Will we see this shift back to the south, or will this continue?

So many questions still to be answered. I still think this makes landfall and causes a lot of havoc.

-Andrew92

Well said. I agree with you completely!

[stormlover2013]

Alyono u think it's starting the trend to towards euro ?

[deltadog03]

All hail the doc? Lol. Ok not yet, but if trends continue and the euro stays the same. Well time to take the SC/NC idea off the board. We shall see. I still favor NC, but that might have to be adjusted northward.

[Hurricaneman]

Wouldn't it be bad for New England and Long Island if this goes between the GFS and UKMET as now it seems to have all the new data and caused the shift east but I can also see the Euro shifting west towards the other models or even vice versa

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

Alyono u think it's starting the trend to towards euro ?

its still WELL different from the EC

[RL3AO]

Oh the Euro will shift west towards the GFS/UKMET and we will declare the G-IV flights the most well spent American tax dollars in history.

[windnrain]

Post the UKMET map?

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

And Mark Sudduth/hurricanetrack just made two very thought-provoking tweets. His first one hinted what some have voiced, that maybe this run wasn't initialized strong enough and could get thrown out.

His second one shows a small piece of energy northeast of Joaquin that could act as a magnet, pick it up, and take it out to sea. He doesn't know what it is, could it be the remnants of Ida per chance? Though it's only 36 hours out and barely southeast of Bermuda. His graphic comes from the NCEP/NOAA model.

In short, do not let your guard down over the latest GFS and UKMET runs!

-Andrew92

[TimeZone]

UKMET is now about 150 miles SE of Cape Cod with a landfall near Halifax

No thanks. You can have it guys.

Can you post it please?

[stormlover2013]

I say next run will be Mexico

[TimeZone]

I say next run will be Mexico

Hahahaha I wouldn't be surprised at this point.