ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WilmingtonSandbar]

0Z GFS run is way east of previous run! Looks like it bows to the Euro!

Keep watching. Hook comes later and farther north around hour 108.

Yeah. It is looking like NJ/NY hit now.

[Hurricaneman]

With the latest GFS the NHC might shift the center of the cone to NJ to NYC possibly at 5AM

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Jevo]

Oh goodness... If NYC makes the cone then the hype train will leave the station. Let's see another Euro and the 6z GFS.

[txwatcher91]

Oh goodness... If NYC makes the cone then the hype train will leave the station. Let's see another Euro and the 6z GFS.

Wouldn't surprise me to see the Euro go towards a GFS solution just to further baffle us and the NHC lol. Where this one goes is just as unclear as yesterday with models all over the place. Short term however those in San Andros are going to get some nasty weather.

[ConvergenceZone]

0Z GFS run is way east of previous run! Looks like it bows to the Euro!

it doesn't surprise me, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the EURO wins out...

[NDG]

Here are the recon's 3 fixes so far.

23.93N 72.93W
23.78N 73.03W
23.65N 73.15W

that still sw movement?

Yes, almost SSW.

[TimeZone]

0Z GFS run is way east of previous run! Looks like it bows to the Euro!

Keep watching. Hook comes later and farther north around hour 108.

Yeah. It is looking like NJ/NY hit now.

I mean, would it really be that strong by the time it made it that far North? Shouldn't the shear up here make quick work of it? Not to mention the cool SST's.

[Lifeless]

GFS seems to be agreeing with the ECM more in the short term, with the storm heading out to sea, but I guess as it meets the high pressure in the North and East, its forced West into the NY/NJ area. Seems like a reasonable middle ground between previous GFS runs and the ECM.

[ConvergenceZone]

0z GFS sends it to NYC...

at least then it would be significantly weaker in my opinion due to the much cooler waters....Just alot of rain though............Probably a strong tropical storm.


(just my opinion, nothing else)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

For those thinking a powerful storm can't impact Southern New England keep in mind the wind shear and cooler water didn't dissipate the hurricanes of 1991 (Bob), 1954 (Carol & Edna), 1938, 1893, 1869 (two storms) or 1635.

[NDG]

Another thing to keep in mind is if Joaquin hangs around the Bahamas a day longer than what the GFS shows it could miss been picked up by the trough and sent towards the US East coast, instead it would go out to sea after heights start falling across the NW Atlantic.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Bocadude85]

Here are the recon's 3 fixes so far.

23.93N 72.93W
23.78N 73.03W
23.65N 73.15W

that still sw movement?

Yes, almost SSW.

11pm forecast is for this to only make it as far south as 23.5 N. If it's already at 23.6 N then one would think that the short term forecast will bust.


_________________
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CourierPR]

CDO and outflow finally starting to expand some on the north side of the system. Usually this is an early sign, usually 12-24 hours in advance, before a turn begins. All the high res models seem to indicate it moving over San Salvador or just south of it before turning.

The circulation also seems to be expanding to the south. This suggests to this untrained observer that the storm circulation is expanding overall.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm about to go to bed. If I wake up in 8 hours and see Joaquin is still heading SW at 5-7 MPH, I'll be shocked. Not because I expect it to level in the latitude overnight, but I'm interested in how much further South it's going to unexpectedly drift.

I'm reminded of Hurricane Hanna, 2008, which made a very large, entirely unexpected drop in this area in this area:

[ConvergenceZone]

I know that we all have an opinion on what we think the storm is going to do. But I have a hunch that I will wake up tomorrow showing more of the models swinging east, slowing aligning with EURO model...I could be wrong, but we'll see.......


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bahamaswx]

That is a massive blowup of a huge region of extemely cold cloud tops.

[Hurricaneman]

Track is still way up in the air but this will probably become a high end cat 4 at peak like Floyd in 1999

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Texashawk]

Is this a situation where the size and strength of the hurricane, being stronger and deeper than forecast, could affect the effects of the steering mechanisms in play, causing some forecast anomalies like we have seen? I live in Houston, and I remember old Doc Frank talking about very large/deep hurricanes creating their own steering, like a giant brick in the river as opposed to a raft.

-Steve

[txwatcher91]

Those in the San Salvador and surrounding areas will have a bad situation on their hands. Let's not forget that even though the long term track is still uncertain, short term these areas of the Bahamas look to get slammed by an intensifying category 3 storm. A dangerous situation indeed.

[emeraldislenc]

So the threat to NC has gone down?