ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[Kingarabian]

Data assimilation of a global model is so complex. When you combine resolution of the model and the shear amount of data coming it, the central pressures of TC's can get smoothed out a bit during initialization. It won't really make an impact on the track forecast of the model.

Thank you. It makes sense seeing it that way.

[CrazyC83]

SE of previous run and appears to be heading NE now.

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/LAWwcQB.gif[/img]

If the GFS caves to the Euro, then wow...

[windnrain]

IS this happening?

[tolakram]

SE of previous run and appears to be heading NE now.

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/LAWwcQB.gif[/img]

If the GFS caves to the Euro, then wow...

No, previous run had this also, need a few more frames.

[Kingarabian]

IWM seems to be frozen @ 54hrs for the 00z GFS.

[1900hurricane]

Why initialize it at 965?

Models take in recon data and analyze satellite imagery from what I heard.

Data assimilation of a global model is so complex. When you combine resolution of the model and the sheer amount of data coming it, the central pressures of TC's can get smoothed out a bit during initialization. It won't really make an impact on the track forecast of the model.

Yeah, and likewise, the pressures that get output aren't going to be perfect either. With the resolution upgrades to many of the globals over the past few years, they should probably be in the ballpark for normal sized storms or larger though.

[Hurricaneman]

SE of previous run and appears to be heading NE now.

If the GFS caves to the Euro, then wow...

or god forbid in the NEUS a compromise between the 2 it heads NE to around 70W 35N then heads NNW into long island and NYC

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[1900hurricane]

Looks like the second outflow channel opens up around 18Z tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see how that affects the storm's intensity in real time.

[tolakram]

[Alyono]

major east shift. already at 72W at 66 hours

[DESTRUCTION5]

major east shift. already at 72W at 66 hours

Yep...Eurolike shift.

[SFLcane]

Lol... wow euro

[tolakram]

[Kingarabian]

GFS caving in to the Euro it seems.

[windnrain]

Seriously? OTS? lmao.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Looking like the GFS is taking on Euro characteristics on this run.

[Alyono]

its still not even close to the 12Z EC. it's 4 degrees north of the EC at 72 hours

[Andrew92]

Lol... wow euro

I think if the Euro ends up verifying, sighs of relief should be breathed, not eyes being rolled. The East Coast still needs to watch and make sure this trend continues or not.

-Andrew92

[BobHarlem]

yeah same point the last GFS run was bending back to NC, 0z has it near 70W. It's moving north in the GFS though.

[smithtim]

Lol... wow euro

I think if the Euro ends up verifying, sighs of relief should be breathed, not eyes being rolled. The East Coast still needs to watch and make sure this trend continues or not.

-Andrew92

Well spoken!!!!!