ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Latest IR seems like turn is beginning more WSW vs SW movement.

According to the Recon's fixes it is still moving SW if not SSW.

[Iknownothing]

With the Carolinas smack in the center of the cone, and the intesity forecast no reaching Cat 4, any outlooks on what the storm surge might be if it follows forecast?



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010331
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 48 20151001
032200 2405N 07339W 6972 03006 9875 +098 +097 030068 069 051 002 01
032230 2406N 07340W 6961 03024 9874 +105 +095 036069 070 050 001 01
032300 2407N 07342W 6967 03020 9887 +102 +098 038069 069 049 001 01
032330 2408N 07343W 6968 03028 9879 +118 +091 041070 071 047 001 00
032400 2410N 07344W 6963 03036 9872 +127 +080 046069 071 045 001 00
032430 2411N 07345W 6969 03036 9883 +125 +074 051070 071 045 001 00
032500 2412N 07347W 6969 03041 9901 +111 +083 050066 071 044 002 00
032530 2413N 07348W 6961 03054 9897 +120 +077 047061 063 044 001 00
032600 2414N 07349W 6970 03047 9901 +122 +078 049060 060 042 002 00
032630 2416N 07351W 6966 03057 9916 +114 +081 048059 060 041 002 00
032700 2417N 07352W 6962 03064 9923 +110 +083 046059 060 041 002 00
032730 2418N 07353W 6971 03058 9921 +117 +077 046056 058 042 001 00
032800 2419N 07354W 6966 03065 9921 +119 +077 046057 058 039 002 00
032830 2421N 07356W 6970 03064 9929 +114 +081 044056 057 038 001 00
032900 2422N 07357W 6963 03073 9927 +117 +077 045055 056 038 001 00
032930 2423N 07358W 6963 03074 9933 +113 +083 043052 055 038 001 00
033000 2424N 07400W 6971 03069 9942 +107 +089 041050 051 036 001 00
033030 2425N 07401W 6965 03077 9948 +104 +078 036048 049 036 001 00
033100 2426N 07402W 6967 03075 9951 +102 +077 037049 049 036 000 00
033130 2428N 07403W 6969 03076 9955 +100 +082 037049 049 034 001 00
$$
;

[ConvergenceZone]

00z will be telling, if the 00z GFS holds that's 6 runs in a row now of a mid-Atlantic hit. Will also be just as hard to discount a similar run of the Euro that the 12z had. Fascinating night ahead in the weather world.

BTW, I hope some great satellite loops of Joaquin from an upper level low to the ultimate outcome are widely available. This has been an incredible system to follow.

exactly! hopefully next year at this time we are saying, "remember when the EURO was taking Joaquin out to sea and all of the other models were having it hit the USA and then the EURO ended up being right after all?"......... Let's all hope!

Good place for the long loop is RAMMB's season site, you can just go to the archive and set it to play the full life of the storm. And I agree, hopefully the Euro is right, and if it is hopefully people will understand NHC was being cautious and going with the best prepared forecast, rather than taking this as an excuse not to prepare next time.

And you notice that the NHC doesn't mention that there is a higher chance of it hitting the USA or they don't say anything about a US landfall being likely. They just say that it's "possible" that it may hit the US....Once the wording changes and they say words like "likely chance" or something along those lines, you'll know what side of the forecast they are leaning on......

[Yellow Evan]

There is no point in a TS watch. No models bring it near there.

It's current SW motion won't even bring it into Florida.

[Yellow Evan]

136kt at 925 hPa (1100 ft) from one of the soundings and 92kt at the surface. Mean boundary layer winds of 118kt.

Aren't winds from sondes just gusts?

[NDG]

Can't wait for the Euro to be redeemed by tomorrow.

Euro has yet to be redeemed this season, and it might be cautious not to speak so certainly without a disclaimer.

It actually did very well with 99L and so far has done very well with Joaquin.

[crimi481]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Ridge keeps digging & nose's way out front of Storm's west side. Angles and math change by the hour regarding both timing and strength of that ridge and the digging trough to come. Get the slide rules out

I am not a Pro

[RDCNY/NJ]

My apologies... My hope is that by tomorrow the Euro will be redeemed for the first time all season
_________________
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[RL3AO]

136kt at 925 hPa (1100 ft) from one of the soundings and 92kt at the surface. Mean boundary layer winds of 118kt.

Aren't winds from sondes just gusts?

Considering they're falling at terminal velocity...yes.

[Macrocane]

If Joaquin environment is only going to improve, could it pull a surprise cat 5 after an 8 years since Felix? Hopefully it won't as it would be bad for the Bahamas, even a 120 kt is more than dangerous.

[Yellow Evan]

136kt at 925 hPa (1100 ft) from one of the soundings and 92kt at the surface. Mean boundary layer winds of 118kt.

Aren't winds from sondes just gusts?

Considering they're falling at terminal velocity...yes.

Then they aren't representative of 1 min sustained winds. So not sure if you can factor the 118 average in as part of the intensity.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

2:45Z satellite floater.

[smithtim]

There is no point in a TS watch. No models bring it near

Yeah while could make argument if intensifies bigger or stronger 140mph SFl possibly get bands etc in all reality that was little of my personal bias just living in FLa its too close for comfort to believe that turn...of course hoping and praying for it but I've got 1992 cemented in my mind!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

75W looks like the line in the sand for the start of the North turn. Lets see what happens.

At the rate this is moving it won't be long until it reaches 75 west

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010341
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 49 20151001
033200 2429N 07405W 6967 03077 //// +098 //// 037049 051 033 002 01
033230 2430N 07406W 6963 03085 9944 +106 +097 040049 050 032 002 01
033300 2431N 07407W 6970 03080 9944 +113 +081 042048 049 030 003 00
033330 2432N 07408W 6965 03085 9945 +114 +063 045048 049 033 001 00
033400 2434N 07410W 6965 03086 9947 +114 +063 045046 048 034 001 00
033430 2435N 07411W 6971 03084 9950 +115 +062 044046 047 033 001 00
033500 2436N 07412W 6959 03098 9954 +115 +055 044047 047 032 001 00
033530 2437N 07414W 6960 03098 9957 +113 +052 043047 048 032 000 00
033600 2439N 07415W 6962 03096 9959 +111 +050 039045 046 030 001 00
033630 2440N 07417W 6968 03088 9963 +110 +051 041045 046 030 001 00
033700 2442N 07419W 6965 03092 9964 +107 +050 044046 047 030 000 00
033730 2444N 07420W 6970 03088 9963 +112 +045 048050 051 028 001 00
033800 2445N 07422W 6965 03097 9964 +111 +044 049049 050 027 000 00
033830 2447N 07424W 6969 03095 9960 +118 +039 047050 050 027 001 00
033900 2449N 07426W 6967 03097 9958 +120 +040 047049 050 029 000 00
033930 2450N 07427W 6966 03099 9963 +118 +040 049048 049 029 001 00
034000 2452N 07429W 6968 03098 9967 +115 +043 049047 048 030 000 00
034030 2454N 07431W 6965 03104 9974 +111 +050 047046 047 029 001 00
034100 2455N 07433W 6967 03103 9982 +106 +052 043042 044 026 000 00
034130 2457N 07435W 6966 03106 9981 +107 +049 045040 042 026 000 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 010343
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 01/03:09:20Z
B. 23 deg 39 min N
073 deg 09 min W
C. 700 mb 2677 m
D. 105 kt
E. 123 deg 16 nm
F. 220 deg 117 kt
G. 123 deg 16 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 11 C / 3049 m
J. 20 C / 3060 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C22
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0511A JOAQUIN OB 27
MAX FL WIND 117 KT 123 / 16 NM 03:04:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 260 / 19 KT
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 303 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

Down a tad. Given the dropsonde wind, likely 948mb or 949mb.

[Hammy]

I could be wrong but it appears that the eye has moved very little and that the lack of cleared eye may be from a new round of bursting convection.

[CrazyC83]

Inching down a bit more - pressure likely 949 right now.

[RL3AO]

Then they aren't representative of 1 min sustained winds. So not sure if you can factor the 118 average in as part of the intensity.

I've heard a good rule for 1-min surface winds is to take 85% of the boundary layer average.