ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

Latest IR seems like turn is beginning more WSW vs SW movement.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like NHC doesn't see the southerly component to his motion lasting much longer at all.

However, they now fcast it to get down to 23.5 N vs the 5 PM advisory's 23.9 N furthest south point. Will this finally be the last southward adjustment?

I would think the Southward adjustments would have to be coming to an end. If not then the Euro very well may be right.

true, but even if this does go out to sea and the EURO ends up victorious, I think as a caution that the NHC is taking the right stance. You can't be too safe in this situation.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tatertawt24]

The trichotillomania-inducing effect of this storm might give Epsilon a run for its money.

[PTrackerLA]

00z will be telling, if the 00z GFS holds that's 6 runs in a row now of a mid-Atlantic hit. Will also be just as hard to discount a similar run of the Euro that the 12z had. Fascinating night ahead in the weather world.

BTW, I hope some great satellite loops of Joaquin from an upper level low to the ultimate outcome are widely available. This has been an incredible system to follow.

[smithtim]

The 0z models' runs will be very interesting indeed.

Yep...especially with that big increase in intensity

[blp]

75W looks like the line in the sand for the start of the North turn. Lets see what happens.

[Bocadude85]

Latest IR seems like turn is beginning more WSW vs SW movement.

Still looks SW to me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

[Hammy]

Can't wait for the Euro to be redeemed by tomorrow.

Euro has yet to be redeemed this season, and it might be cautious not to speak so certainly without a disclaimer.

[ConvergenceZone]

00z will be telling, if the 00z GFS holds that's 6 runs in a row now of a mid-Atlantic hit. Will also be just as hard to discount a similar run of the Euro that the 12z had. Fascinating night ahead in the weather world.

BTW, I hope some great satellite loops of Joaquin from an upper level low to the ultimate outcome are widely available. This has been an incredible system to follow.

exactly! hopefully next year at this time we are saying, "remember when the EURO was taking Joaquin out to sea and all of the other models were having it hit the USA and then the EURO ended up being right after all?"......... Let's all hope!

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I just watched a video that Mark Sudduth/hurricanetrack put on his YouTube channel that I think makes a lot of sense over why Joaquin is much more poised to be a threat to the East Coast than it is to go out to sea.

To go through it briefly, the Euro is arguing that the remnants of Ida will create a weakness in the high pressure ridge to the northeast. However, is this realistically a strong enough feature to do such a thing? I would guess no, judging by the current satellite appearance.

However, another reason I would guess no is that as Joaquin is building in intensity, the GFS and many others including Mark Sudduth/hurricanetrack are saying a cutoff low building in over the South will capture Joaquin, basically forcing the hurricane and this other low to sort of "dance around" each other. This isn't too far from what Sandy did in 2012, as well as Agnes back in 1972. All the while, like both storms, it would cause a major flooding event on the East Coast due to relatively slow movement over the same area for several days.

I can kind of see what the Euro has been saying in terms of carrying Joaquin out to sea, but I just can't buy it. Hurricanes are attracted to lower heights and can't just dig through ridges.

-Andrew92

[Lifeless]

Recon data from Tropical tidbits seems to show up to nearly 115kt (132mph) surface winds. Could easily be an error, but that's certainly stronger than the recent advisory.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... series.png

[Hammy]

00z will be telling, if the 00z GFS holds that's 6 runs in a row now of a mid-Atlantic hit. Will also be just as hard to discount a similar run of the Euro that the 12z had. Fascinating night ahead in the weather world.

BTW, I hope some great satellite loops of Joaquin from an upper level low to the ultimate outcome are widely available. This has been an incredible system to follow.

exactly! hopefully next year at this time we are saying, "remember when the EURO was taking Joaquin out to sea and all of the other models were having it hit the USA and then the EURO ended up being right after all?"......... Let's all hope!

Good place for the long loop is RAMMB's season site, you can just go to the archive and set it to play the full life of the storm. And I agree, hopefully the Euro is right, and if it is hopefully people will understand NHC was being cautious and going with the best prepared forecast, rather than taking this as an excuse not to prepare next time.

Recon data from Tropical tidbits seems to show up to nearly 115kt (132mph) surface winds. Could easily be an error, but that's certainly stronger than the recent advisory.

Nice to see the recon data is back up. It appears the strengthening may have come to a halt at the moment though, at least pressure-wise. Wind may still catch up in the short term without the pressure falling.
Data could be rain-tainted as well, but I'd say this supports at least 120mph.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

10pm satellite. 11pm track. Through HDOB 47.


Satellite overlay from SSEC.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010321
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 47 20151001
031200 2344N 07317W 6964 02738 9482 +197 +104 035063 065 058 002 00
031230 2345N 07319W 6957 02772 9494 +205 +096 036084 089 073 001 00
031300 2346N 07320W 6978 02787 9510 +230 +074 044081 087 079 000 03
031330 2348N 07321W 6944 02847 9551 +223 +066 046087 096 086 000 00
031400 2349N 07322W 6974 02839 9611 +188 +081 034098 100 089 001 00
031430 2350N 07324W 7002 02819 9647 +172 +082 032101 103 086 001 00
031500 2351N 07325W 6975 02877 9694 +147 +081 027109 113 079 001 00
031530 2352N 07325W 6961 02905 9722 +132 +083 026106 111 077 002 00
031600 2353N 07326W 6962 02918 9749 +117 +109 025095 103 075 002 00
031630 2354N 07327W 6970 02926 9762 +120 //// 024090 092 072 005 01
031700 2355N 07328W 6937 02980 9781 +117 //// 023087 089 068 005 01
031730 2356N 07330W 6970 02945 //// +114 //// 021087 089 059 002 01
031800 2357N 07331W 6973 02950 //// +102 //// 021083 085 055 003 01
031830 2358N 07332W 6962 02976 9827 +109 //// 025082 084 057 004 01
031900 2359N 07333W 6955 02984 9843 +118 //// 025075 081 057 006 01
031930 2400N 07334W 6971 02976 9842 +110 //// 027078 079 058 005 01
032000 2401N 07335W 6968 02985 9846 +112 //// 027074 078 056 005 01
032030 2402N 07336W 6975 02985 9861 +102 //// 025073 073 054 005 01
032100 2403N 07337W 6965 03006 9865 +099 +099 027072 073 053 003 01
032130 2404N 07338W 6964 03007 9865 +099 +098 031070 073 052 002 01
$$
;

113 kt FL, 89 kt SFMR in NW quad.

[Yellow Evan]

Would a high ratio from FL to surface (measured via dropsonde) suggest high surface mixing or just gusty winds ?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010311
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 46 20151001
030200 2324N 07249W 6963 02962 9854 +098 +098 219076 077 067 019 03
030230 2325N 07250W 6963 02948 9837 +103 +103 222084 091 069 034 03
030300 2326N 07251W 6961 02931 9813 +109 +109 224093 095 074 054 03
030330 2327N 07253W 6980 02886 9792 +109 +109 216096 100 084 075 00
030400 2329N 07254W 6961 02887 9766 +110 +110 215103 110 094 078 00
030430 2330N 07255W 6956 02861 9718 +116 +116 220112 117 105 078 00
030500 2331N 07256W 6923 02852 //// +095 //// 240095 114 107 076 05
030530 2332N 07258W 6964 02776 9597 +123 //// 239056 078 111 019 05
030600 2334N 07259W 7014 02692 9539 +154 +151 239040 042 113 009 03
030630 2335N 07300W 6946 02771 9518 +165 +131 231027 036 051 002 00
030700 2336N 07301W 6970 02733 9506 +172 +108 225026 027 038 002 00
030730 2337N 07303W 6962 02739 9493 +182 +091 206020 026 027 001 03
030800 2338N 07304W 6971 02728 9487 +190 +090 192008 013 019 000 00
030830 2339N 07306W 6951 02748 9473 +199 +074 150003 006 018 000 00
030900 2339N 07308W 6970 02723 9480 +190 +092 219002 005 019 000 00
030930 2340N 07310W 6972 02717 9475 +190 +086 047008 011 017 001 00
031000 2340N 07312W 6966 02718 9462 +200 +072 042014 017 017 001 03
031030 2341N 07314W 6966 02721 9482 +175 +105 016028 031 016 001 00
031100 2342N 07315W 6969 02720 9480 +181 +098 025040 043 021 001 00
031130 2343N 07316W 6959 02735 9469 +201 +090 026053 057 035 000 00
$$
;

117 kt FL (SFMR unreliable/flagged or rain contaminated) in SE quad. Pressure 946mb.

[smithtim]

However, they now fcast it to get down to 23.5 N vs the 5 PM advisory's 23.9 N furthest south point. Will this finally be the last southward adjustment?

I would think the Southward adjustments would have to be coming to an end. If not then the Euro very well may be right.

true, but even if this does go out to sea and the EURO ends up victorious, I think as a caution that the NHC is taking the right stance. You can't be too safe in this situation.

On that note I'm really surprised not to see TS watch for FLa...I know at this point very very unlikely landfall but with 20 million people living in FLa and the green from TS wind probability clipping that densely populated SE Florida area you'd think better safe than sorry???

[bahamaswx]

Eyewall now open per Recon, and pressure stabilized down a tad to 952. (The VDM did come in)

Yeah the stabilization of his satellite presentation suggests to me that he hasn't done any significant strengthening in the past few hours. Still waiting for a well-formed eye to appear on IR.

[RL3AO]

136kt at 925 hPa (1100 ft) from one of the soundings and 92kt at the surface. Mean boundary layer winds of 118kt.

[CrazyC83]

That high SFMR is rain contaminated. The entire SE quad data was a throwaway, with the highest in the NW quad being about 90 kt. Based on earlier data, the slight pressure drop and flight level winds, I would go with 105 kt right now.