ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

So 2 questions, on the 11:00PM update,

#1 does the track change?

#2 does the current strength change, or do they keep it the same?

1) I think they will leave it alone for now, although I personally would go with the GFS+ with an NC landfall but at the same time mention that it is low confidence with out to sea possible.

2) I expect the intensity forecast - at least through 48 hours - to increase significantly. I think the forecast peak will be Cat 4 within 24 hours.

[AutoPenalti]

Saved loop:

Where do you get this animated gif?

[RL3AO]

Saved loop:

[ img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/gifsBy12hr_05_zpsq79snhnz.gif[/img]

Where do you get this animated gif?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml

[TheAustinMan]

A little bit weaker on the northern side, but Joaquin overall presents a well-organized structure and quite vigorous convection & circulation.

[Andrew92]

All I am saying is that if Joaquin continues with its southerly track the Euro's operational run could be more right than wrong, all the models that slam it into the US east coast want it to turn north fairly fast and do not show it go as far south as the Euro has it.
Many of us, including some pro-mets, were laughing at the Euro for tracking it towards the Bahamas as a Major Hurricane.

Here was what the ones who know most thought 3 nights ago. Bahamas was NOT in anybody's expectations nor a named storm. According to the tropicaltidbits site looks like the Euro sort of caught on 12z Monday with a near miss to the Bahamas

Was the Euro that called for something like this three days ago the ensemble members or the deterministic run? I thought the ensembles bring this thing into or near the East Coast while the deterministic takes it out to sea, can someone correct me if I'm misunderstanding?

-Andrew92

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think it was Hugo last time we were 3 days out not sure where a Cat 4 storm might make landfall...Andrew or maybe Charley. Anyway we have gotten spoiled and bored since Charley as TC freaks...the science has gotten that much better. This one has me nervous for a lot folks. Hoping for just a big scare and keeping this offshore by way synoptic feature or timing as yet undetermined....

[deltadog03]

This is about as good as you can get right?

[RL3AO]

REMINDER: Please don't quote images or gifs. Remove the [img] tags from the quoted post.

[Hammy]

Any new info from recon or has the communication failed altogether?

[TimeZone]

This is about as good as you can get right?
http://i57.tinypic.com/16t6o2.png]

Wow. No wonder it intensified so quickly.

[ozonepete]

This is about as good as you can get right?
http://i57.tinypic.com/16t6o2.png

Whoa, yeah. No shear left at all in its path. Nothing to inhibit it really.

[windnrain]

http://wavy.com/2015/09/30/navy-sets-so ... e-joaquin/

Navy pulling in all ships.

[abajan]

This is about as good as you can get right?
http://i57.tinypic.com/16t6o2.png

Wow! The quintessential sweet spot!

[bamajammer4eva]

All I am saying is that if Joaquin continues with its southerly track the Euro's operational run could be more right than wrong, all the models that slam it into the US east coast want it to turn north fairly fast and do not show it go as far south as the Euro has it.
Many of us, including some pro-mets, were laughing at the Euro for tracking it towards the Bahamas as a Major Hurricane.

Here was what the ones who know most thought 3 nights ago. Bahamas was NOT in anybody's expectations nor a named storm. According to the tropicaltidbits site looks like the Euro sort of caught on 12z Monday with a near miss to the Bahamas

Was the Euro that called for something like this three days ago the ensemble members or the deterministic run? I thought the ensembles bring this thing into or near the East Coast while the deterministic takes it out to sea, can someone correct me if I'm misunderstanding?

-Andrew92

Monday 12z Operational run was similar to what other models now say though not digging as far to the south as presently

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=207

[Syx6sic]

http://wavy.com/2015/09/30/navy-sets-sortie-condition-charlie-due-to-hurricane-joaquin/

Navy pulling in all ships.

Yup and already declared a state of emergency just in case I am here in Norfolk will try to keep everyone updated from here

[windnrain]

Forecast advisory out...

no upgrade?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2049.shtml

[Evil Jeremy]

Forecast advisory out...

no upgrade?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2049.shtml

That's the last advisory. New one not out yet.

Having said that, can't wait for the new Discussion, after the two from earlier today...

[windnrain]

Forecast advisory out...

no upgrade?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2049.shtml

That's the last advisory. New one not out yet.

Having said that, can't wait for the new Discussion, after the two from earlier today...

Oh didn't notice that.

[galaxy401]

Sometimes we don't see the data anymore but the NHC still gets it. I guess we'll see in the next advisory.

[Blown Away]

Joaquin not likely to get near Grand Bahama, but interesting there is a Hurricane Warning up and not even TS Watch for Florida...