ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Latest BD frame suggest that the eye is clearing and a W ring has wrapped around the eye.

[ozonepete]

Going on satellite appearance I'm expecting little to no change in intensity when the plane arrives. The deepest convection is still struggling to wrap around the western side and it probably won't be able to strengthen until it does.

ill go with 90pmh...

Yup. 90 mph sounds right.

[TimeZone]

Going on satellite appearance I'm expecting little to no change in intensity when the plane arrives. The deepest convection is still struggling to wrap around the western side and it probably won't be able to strengthen until it does.

ill go with 90pmh...

Yup. 90 mph sounds right.

My guess is 85 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 302341
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 25 20150930
233200 2439N 07334W 6965 03062 9934 +099 +079 045055 056 039 000 00
233230 2437N 07333W 6968 03051 9924 +105 +067 044056 057 040 001 00
233300 2436N 07332W 6967 03051 9925 +100 +079 046058 059 042 001 00
233330 2435N 07330W 6970 03041 9919 +100 +078 044061 061 043 000 00
233400 2434N 07329W 6966 03042 9915 +098 +084 042060 061 045 001 00
233430 2432N 07328W 6972 03031 9907 +102 +085 043061 062 045 001 00
233500 2431N 07326W 6963 03036 9897 +108 +083 046062 063 046 002 00
233530 2430N 07325W 6972 03021 9886 +111 +087 047064 066 047 002 00
233600 2429N 07324W 6968 03023 9886 +108 +083 045068 070 047 002 00
233630 2427N 07322W 6970 03012 9872 +114 +086 041071 072 050 001 00
233700 2426N 07321W 6964 03015 9869 +111 +088 043070 073 050 001 00
233730 2425N 07320W 6963 03009 9865 +107 +096 047070 072 055 001 00
233800 2424N 07318W 6972 02987 //// +100 //// 045072 073 055 001 01
233830 2422N 07317W 6963 02990 9859 +105 //// 043073 077 056 003 01
233900 2421N 07316W 6970 02974 //// +103 //// 047074 078 056 003 01
233930 2420N 07315W 6954 02991 //// +101 //// 047078 081 056 003 01
234000 2419N 07313W 6962 02968 9810 +107 +107 049084 088 058 003 01
234030 2417N 07312W 6973 02947 9820 +104 //// 050088 090 060 006 01
234100 2416N 07311W 6955 02958 9817 +106 +106 046089 093 066 008 00
234130 2415N 07310W 6967 02930 9787 +108 +107 047092 095 067 005 00
$$
;

95 kt FL, 67 kt SFMR so far in NW quad.

[Yellow Evan]

Usually with a clearing eye and thick CDO, I'd expect low-end Cat 2 or 85-90ish, maybe a little higher.

[Aric Dunn]

95kt fl from recon.

[Kingarabian]

Usually with a clearing eye and thick CDO, I'd expect low-end Cat 2 or 85-90ish, maybe a little higher.

67kts so far.

[SunnyThoughts]

im gonna go with 95mph before they leave the storm.

[ozonepete]

My guess is 85 MPH.

At least 90 mph. 100 mph would not be surprising if you look at the latest satellite images. Symmetry is excellent and eye is tight and round and centrally located.

[Yellow Evan]

Usually with a clearing eye and thick CDO, I'd expect low-end Cat 2 or 85-90ish, maybe a little higher.

67kts so far.

NW quadrant and hasn't reached the eye yet and 95 knt FL winds.

Supports 75-80 based on the 95 knt FL winds.

[SunnyThoughts]

[SouthDadeFish]

Pressure is most likely quite a bit below 970 mb now. This may be pushing a category two hurricane now.

[Aric Dunn]

Pressure is most likely quite a bit below 970 mb now. This may be pushing a category two hurricane now.

Agreed

[SouthDadeFish]

Keep in mind those FL winds were found in the NW quadrant, which I believe was one of the weaker quadrants from previous recon fixes in Joaquin.

[CrazyC83]

Keep in mind those FL winds were found in the NW quadrant, which I believe was one of the weaker quadrants from previous recon fixes in Joaquin.

If the storm is moving southwest, the SW and NW quads should be the strongest.

[SouthDadeFish]

Also, eyewall convection is quite vigorous in all quadrants now. Definitely seem like an intensification phase is underway. I hope the residents of the Bahamas in the path of the storm have prepared for a possible major hurricane.

[SouthDadeFish]

Keep in mind those FL winds were found in the NW quadrant, which I believe was one of the weaker quadrants from previous recon fixes in Joaquin.

If the storm is moving southwest, the SW and NW quads should be the strongest.

Theoretically yes, but northerly wind shear has suppressed convection in that quadrant until this point.

[summersquall]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 302351
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 26 20150930
234200 2414N 07308W 6957 02929 9747 +125 +097 044092 095 067 005 00
234230 2413N 07307W 6974 02897 9713 +146 +096 047088 092 073 002 00
234300 2412N 07306W 6974 02879 9676 +163 +106 063085 087 079 000 00
234330 2411N 07305W 6962 02871 9654 +158 +108 065089 093 082 000 03
234400 2409N 07304W 6947 02862 9623 +162 +096 063096 096 088 000 03
234430 2408N 07303W 6995 02778 9587 +173 +091 059093 097 088 000 03
234500 2406N 07303W 6940 02824 9563 +167 +107 060066 090 078 000 03
234530 2405N 07302W 6946 02799 9529 +187 +085 065046 058 071 001 03
234600 2403N 07301W 6967 02763 9517 +192 +077 059037 040 051 001 00
234630 2401N 07300W 6965 02755 9517 +179 +087 051035 041 042 001 00
234700 2400N 07259W 6971 02742 9506 +185 +081 047022 028 034 001 03
234730 2358N 07258W 6972 02735 9493 +193 +083 050010 018 025 001 03
234800 2357N 07256W 6961 02749 9499 +183 +095 103003 007 020 000 00
234830 2355N 07255W 6967 02737 9499 +180 +101 173007 009 015 000 00
234900 2354N 07254W 6962 02743 9505 +174 +102 198010 011 018 001 00
234930 2352N 07253W 6975 02734 9517 +168 +098 218018 021 024 000 00
235000 2351N 07252W 6966 02750 9527 +163 +093 210026 030 024 000 03
235030 2350N 07250W 6959 02766 9549 +150 +099 216037 042 052 001 00
235100 2349N 07249W 6968 02769 9565 +149 +102 224051 057 090 004 00
235130 2348N 07248W 6980 02768 9582 +147 +111 223066 070 102 008 00
$$
;

97 kt FL, 102 kt SFMR, pressure 949mb. Expect a special advisory shortly.

[Kingarabian]

949mb 90kts